Major Hurricane Ike

[Gray-Wolf]

So now it looks like we wait on the forecast mini 'trough' to materialise and see where that leaves Ike. He will be a nasty beastie where ever he decides to land! Another 4 days 'till we have a real idea methinks.

[Mondy]

the control tower on Grand Turk was damaged/destroyed.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/tci.shtml

[ChartViewer]

Ike as it headed across the Atlantic

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271870m...7e015162_hi.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271873m...7e015163_hi.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271879m...7e015170_hi.jpg

Edited September 8, 2008 by ChartViewer

[Iceberg]

Recon are in atm min pressure found so far is 967mb, the centre is fully offshore and has started to reform a bit,(structure is very good anyway)

[Mondy]

Found 969mb now - not really hurricane stuff atm

[Somerset Squall]

Totally agree Iceberg, structure is still looking good and if Ike continues westwards for a little while longer then I think any further significant weakening is unlikely. Admittedly, convection is lacking compared to what it was but the eye is now back over water so this can easily increase again.

Found 969mb now - not really hurricane stuff atm

How is that not "Hurricane stuff?". 969mb is what you would expect for a cat 2 hurricane, which is what Ike is now.

[Iceberg]

Pretty much as expected except the winds have totally gone (he is nolonger a hurricane according to recon).

When he entered Cuba he was just finishing an ERC, it seems like he exited in the same vain, with the inner feature poorly defined but the outer strong. Land interaction problem tightened up the inner feature to prolong it.

000

URNT12 KNHC 081820 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 08/18:03:30Z

B. 21 deg 11 min N

079 deg 09 min W

C. 700 mb 2809 m

D. 64 kt

E. 299 deg 10 nm

F. 062 deg 057 kt

G. 331 deg 005 nm

H. 970 mb

I. 10 C/ 3053 m

J. 12 C/ 3046 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CO15-60

M. OPEN E

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF309 1209A IKE2 OB 02 CCA

MAX WIND OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 18:14:30 Z

INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. OUTER EYEWALL

BETTER DEFINED THAN INNER CORE FEATURE

[Mondy]

Totally agree Iceberg, structure is still looking good and if Ike continues westwards for a little while longer then I think any further significant weakening is unlikely. Admittedly, convection is lacking compared to what it was but the eye is now back over water so this can easily increase again.

How is that not "Hurricane stuff?". 969mb is what you would expect for a cat 2 hurricane, which is what Ike is now.

Coz the winds have died away - guess I should've mentioned that - but recon data does show that if you look and see :-)

[Mondy]

http://www.redcross.org.uk/donatesection.asp?id=85241

[Somerset Squall]

Coz the winds have died away - guess I should've mentioned that - but recon data does show that if you look and see :-)

Sorry- didn't see the data there. Must admit, convection isn't looking all that great with Ike at the moment and although the structure is there perhaps I shouldn't be surprised recon isn't finding Ike at hurricane strength.

[Roger J Smith]

Just repeating what I posted in another thread about the historic Galveston hurricane that hit about this time on 8 September in 1900 ... it also emerged from Cuba near Havana although it had never been a hurricane in its long overland trajectory through Hispaniola and Cuba. From there it took about three and a half days to reach Galveston. It was probably about a cat 3/4 borderline storm but given the perfect trajectory and storm surge conditions it was enough to do tremendous damage that resulted in an estimated eight to twelve thousand deaths. Although the wind damage was considerable the main killer was the storm surge.

The same storm today would probably have less impact as the seawalls at Galveston are higher than in 1900. However it would still cause a lot of damage and would require a full evacuation of the Texas coastal region. This seems to be where Ike is heading. I don't think it will weaken that much over western Cuba, but even if it emerges at cat-1 intensity it will probably ramp up to the 3/4 zone fairly fast. Would not rule out cat 5 for this one either, I don't see many negatives for intensity on the 72-96h model run (a large 500-mb low is shown developing which sometimes locks a hurricane in at cat-3, so I feel high end cat 3 is probably the safest bet).

Landfall would be some time around early Sunday 14th in GMT or Saturday night local time.

[Gray-Wolf]

Has Ike shifted a little north of westerly? he seems quite keen on the coastline all of a sudden!

[Roger J Smith]

GW, I just ran a loop and noticed that last frame showed a wobble bascially along the south coast, probably the track from now to when it re-emerges from western Cuba will bounce around a little as the circulation interacts with hilly terrain in central Cuba. I suppose Cuba is just the right size to pose the boundary condition between small island that has no effect on a tropical storm, and massive land surface that changes the dynamics rapidly (like the Yucatan normally does).

With Cuba and a large hurricane, the whole circulation is always going to be about 50% over land and 50% over water so the dynamics of the storm will be constantly changing. We've also seen in recent years that a brief overland passage in south Florida is not enough to weaken a hurricane substantially, the average category reduction has been about 2 for all the cases (e.g., from 4 to 2, from 5 to 3, etc), and in most cases there has been a re-development to the original intensity within 24 hours.

In retrospect, it is quite surprising that Gustav never made it back to cat-4 or cat-5 but I would not count on Ike being so well-behaved.

One other point, the distribution of U.S. oil rigs in the Gulf is such that no single storm would be likely to damage more than 20% of capacity unless it moved parallel to the coast from the mouth of the Mississippi to Corpus Christi at cat-4 intensity. That is quite unlikely, and Ike on its present track will probably damage about 10-15 per cent of the oil rigs, mostly those off the TX-LA border.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Roger!

This morning's GFS run showed a 12 hr 'stall' just off shore and around the bulk of the installations (whilst maintaining intensity). I wonder if the design spec of the Rigs/processing installations runs into duration of Cat. hit and not just an 'average' hit?

Edited September 8, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Katherine]

Ike now Cat 1 with 80 MPH winds.

[Iceberg]

Ike appears to be strengthening already, convection is a bit stronger at the core, pressure has gone down to 965mb aaccording to the latest NHC advisory and recon wind speeds now support CAT 1. We also have a 76Kt surface in D. Better temp differentials, a closed eye and two concentric eye walls.

000

URNT12 KNHC 082130

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 08/2108Z

B. 21 DEG 26 MIN N

79 DEG 36 MIN W

C. 700 MB 2804 M

D. 76 KT

E. 295 DEG 12 NM

F. 33 DEG 58 KT

G. 294 DEG 27 NM

H. 967 MB

I. 8 C/ 3050 M

J. 12 C/ 3050 M

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C 10-50

N. 12345/7

O. 0.2/ 7 NM

P. AF309 1209A IKE OB 08

MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 2022Z

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FIFTEEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Its travelling quite slowly, will this make rainfall totals worse?

[Coopsy]

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 32

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...BANDS OF HEAVY

SQUALLS NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...

MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM

OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN

BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES

...40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PLAYA GIRON ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WEST-

CENTRAL CUBA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA

CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA DURING THE DAY ON

TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY

EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS

OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN

IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN

COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP

CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES

OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES

POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2

TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA

KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.8 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

AM EDT.

[Iceberg]

Pressure of 966mb and winds of 69Kts.

Ike has started the turn more NW now and is just inland again according to Radar. or on the verge of it.

He is still pretty organised, winds haven't come back up but that's not really a surprise given the distance offshore he's been and the lack of convection therefore that can't fire up.

Ike has maintained good pressure due to the strong banding and intensification once the otherside of Cuba is almost a Given.

The track is looking more and more Texas like.

061300 2215N 08132W 6966 02988 9885 +075 +075 091066 069 999 999 03

061330 2213N 08133W 6965 02982 9867 +082 +080 097059 063 999 999 03

061400 2212N 08133W 6960 02977 9848 +088 +080 097061 062 999 999 03

061430 2210N 08134W 6967 02960 9837 +089 +080 093062 063 067 001 03

061500 2208N 08134W 6969 02947 9807 +107 +080 089063 063 062 004 00

061530 2206N 08134W 6967 02939 9792 +107 +080 087064 064 062 001 03

061600 2205N 08135W 6967 02922 9781 +102 +080 085062 063 066 000 03

061630 2203N 08135W 6963 02909 9756 +106 +080 089058 060 999 999 03

061700 2201N 08135W 6969 02875 9712 +120 +080 089056 061 084 004 03

061730 2159N 08135W 6968 02854 9681 +127 +080 092033 042 058 001 00

061800 2158N 08135W 6971 02842 9661 +137 +080 100010 017 034 000 03

061830 2156N 08135W 6965 02854 9668 +134 +080 260002 008 023 000 00

[Gray-Wolf]

So , I wonder how he will manouvre into the Gulf? another clip of the west end of Cuba or through the yucatan straights?

If he carried on with this track he'd take another very short track overland (4hrs???) and then he's in the Gulf and the fun can begin!

[opplevelse]

Hi all I've been away down at The Belgium F1 GP in Spa-Francorchamps ... bummer

Ike is looking quite good still consiering its been over land now for at least 12 hrs. A good central core of WV, and very very low shear in the GoM mean it should be in a much healthier state than Gustav was

[kold weather]

Ike's got a very small core, it tried to start an EWRC yesterday again but the inner core has proved too strong and snuffed it out as the outer eyewlal was overland snd the inner core was so small it has strengthend as its over waters.

Anyway track still shifting southwards but I suspect thats about as south as it will go, the GFS has a Texas/Mexico border, close to where Dolly made landfall. Other models are futher north close to Corpus Christi. Which model is right though I'm not all that show just yet.

The strength forecast is pretty much anyones guess, its got the loop current ahead of it and its got a small inner core which may only be slightly disrupted with the next crossing of Cuba then its anyone's guess, small inner core with low shear set-up and high heat content sounds to me this system has every chance of cat-4/5 status.

[Coast]

Anyway track still shifting southwards but I suspect thats about as south as it will go, the GFS has a Texas/Mexico border, close to where Dolly made landfall. Other models are further north close to Corpus Christi. Which model is right though I'm not all that show just yet.

A few models in agreement, with NHC currently forecasting cat 3 at landfall, 2am (local) Saturday:

[liquidjp]

The NHC are essentially saying they really have little idea where this is going as of an hour or so ago. Certainly makes for "fun" times along the GOM...

IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY

FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE

NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD

WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.