Major Hurricane Ike

[opplevelse]

Finally some good internal sat passes, shows some very heavy convection on the East side, but surprisingly no well defined eye (this image was less than 2 hrs ago) so still some reorganising yet I think kold weather

[kold weather]

There was an eye quite obvious on the IR breifly earlier though since then convection has blown up over the top of it:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

The structure to me is still improving and the key thing is pressure is still dropping, latest recon pass found central pressure of 955mbs...and whilst winds haven't increased they are now constantly upto 80kts at flight level.

[Iceberg]

The 2mb an hour rate is continuing winds have increased steadily upto 84Kts at flight level, Ike might well be a CAT 2 by say 21.00 this evening.

The winds are increasing across the board, what was a 40-50Kt is now 60-70Kts. I get the feeling that Ike will have a very large 100Kt range when it gets near Texas.

A very large tightening Hurricane.

81Kt in the SE Eye wall.

135600 2344N 08512W 7500 02227 9674 +153 +153 246079 081 069 027 00

Edited September 10, 2008 by Iceberg

[opplevelse]

Interesting that there is not a lot of out flow in the south west quadrant.

[Iceberg]

He's been upped to 80Kt just shy of a CAT 2.

Landfall has been upped to 110Kt just shy of CAT 4.

[summer blizzard]

I'm going to have to agree with the NHC, Hurricane Ike looks to make landfall around the 145mph mark (category 4), however i also agree with Kold, in that we may see category 5 for a while.

[Paranoid]

I'm very skeptical of the models this year, they seem to frequently over-estimate the strengthing of storms (vastly in some cases) and are usually initialised at the wrong strengths anyway.

Still, i dont know much better myself. I'm going with a GOM peak of 120mph.

[opplevelse]

A double eyewall has started to form and accompanied with increased convection at the core ...

[kold weather]

Ike's now a category 2 as dropsonde has found 92kts at the surface.

[Gray-Wolf]

[londonsnow]

gosh, ike is really getting going again

[opplevelse]

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS

OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.

THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.

HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE

THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME

WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN

GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE

LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE

SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN

THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT

12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT

24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT

36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT

48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT

72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Quite simply ... stunning presentation

Click for larger

[SMU]

:huh: Ummm no the convection is far less than spectacular, it is in fact fairly ordinary. IR sat shots show cloud top temperatures, which is an indication of cloud height, which can be an indication of convection, but NOT of the strength of the convection.

Sensationalist words are just that. Sensationalist ... :wacko:

I didnt say it was going to be spectacular this minute or even today- It WILL BE though...

The System covers 80 NM & today it is consolidating & over the last 3 hours has developed a tighter inner core- It was going to be very difficult to get a CAT 5 & low pressure reading over such a large windfield-

The Centre of circulation is tightening & as the hours pass the proximity to the warm & deep TCHP & the fact that the motion is slow- ( Indicitive of a system re-organising ) only points to one inevitable thing....

In your own words Stunning now.... ^^^^

S

Edited September 10, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Cookie]

very stunning image thanks for posting

[opplevelse]

... I didnt say it was going to be spectacular this minute or even today- It WILL BE though......

Really? Wow ... I wonder what on earth this could have possibly meant then ...

....Last IR shot has spectacular convection & masses of inflow & outflow bands...

- edit: ... Probably a bit harsh -

Edited September 10, 2008 by opplevelse

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Perhaps if we stopped picking on the differences between one persons definition to another, this might be a thread more interesting...

:wacko: = Back on Topic?

[opplevelse]

Sorry, you are right :wacko:

As was mentioned earlier, Ike is now officially a cat 2

000

WTNT34 KNHC 101755

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO

THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...

410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...

640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN

BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND

A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE

FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4

FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE

GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12

INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO

20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS

EVENING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Chance of it being cat 4 or 5 has increased. Now a 27% chance of being at least a cat 4 on 7am Friday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../151325P_sm.gif

Edited September 10, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Iceberg]

The slow rise of Ike continues, 3 90+Kt's where found which clearly shows that it was far from a one off the 70's are not generally 80's and so it continues...

The pressure falls have stopped, the eye is really in poor shape again and needs to re-organise, plenty of time for this to happen and it will probably happen by tomorrow morning.

Winds should increase to 100Kts given the pressure we have at the moment so the steady rise in flight winds to maybe 110Kts looks on the cards.

Ike still has a very very large wind field.

The path has shifted northwards, GFDL has an almost direct CAT 4 hit on Houston leaving the NHC track as one of the most southern.

[opplevelse]

Chance of it being cat 4 or 5 has increased. Now a 27% chance of being at least a cat 4 on 7am Friday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../151325P_sm.gif

P.S. Why cant i post this as an image?

Probably because your footer is so bloody annoying ... :wacko:

edit: I am fairly certain it is because NOAA prevents hotlinking to lower bandwidth use?

seriously, that footer does my head in!

Edited September 10, 2008 by opplevelse

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Probably because your footer is so bloody annoying ... :wacko:

edit: I am fairly certain it is because NOAA prevents hotlinking to lower bandwidth use?

seriously, that footer does my head in!

Which bit, the bouncing R-A-I-N letters or the bouncing emoticon faces?

On topic: Crikey that hurrican is looking bad

Edited September 10, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[opplevelse]

RAIN RAIN RAIN, That is a good graphic, but I prefer this one as it shows the wind strength sectors and is based directly on NHC data *oh and in regards to your footer I will PM you to keep it out of the thread :wacko: )

you can find it here

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Edited September 10, 2008 by opplevelse

[mountain shadow]

Has anyone else noticed that NOAA rarely project a Cat 4 Or 5 at landfall until around 24 hours before hand?

Is it a case of stopping panic or just that they don't have the ability at the moment?

It does seem Ike will be Cat4 at landfall with very warm water and little shear to contend with.

[opplevelse]

Has anyone else noticed that NOAA rarely project a Cat 4 Or 5 at landfall until around 24 hours before hand? ...

Yes I have noticed that a few times ...

[hoghedge]

Just noticed this pic from BBC (via storm2k), of the cuba ike interaction - thought it was an astounding pic - there was some pretty serious damage

Ike certainly seems to have nothing stopping it now.

Does anyone have the link to a site off the NHC re forecast points ?

Hoggy