Major Hurricane Ike

[opplevelse]

FYI Bouy 42001 is likely to be hit head on ... and I mean smack bang head on in about 18 hrs time ... watch this one.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

...Does anyone have the link to a site off the NHC re forecast points ?...

WHat do you mean by Forecast points? The NHC home page is here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml

Google is your friend.

[Somerset Squall]

They clearly stress in their forecasts that intensity forecasts beyond 3 days are low in skill. As cat 4's and 5's are not as common as anything below that then they are understandably not so keen on forecasting intensities that high long range. They do sometimes forecast cat 4's in advance but you'd rarely see a cat 5 forecast, purely because these beasts are fairly rare and just too difficult to call in advance IMO.

[Iceberg]

They rarely forecast them because they rarely happen !.

Land interaction normally reduces the Hurricane strength, hence why a CAT 4 will normally go down to a 3.

Ike is a little different it has the size to cope well the the land interaction unless speed really slows down.

[hoghedge]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml

Google is your friend.

Sorry opplevelse - I meant to say that there used to be a link somewhere off the NHC site that you could view a sat pic and choose to view all forecast points for many of the different models - I just can't remember which site it was.

Re Ike's path - I see some are mentioning a trough cutting off its Southern portion... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

[opplevelse]

Sorry opplevelse - I meant to say that there used to be a link somewhere off the NHC site that you could view a sat pic and choose to view all forecast points for many of the different models - I just can't remember which site it was.

Re Ike's path - I see some are mentioning a trough cutting off its Southern portion... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

Like this one?

[opplevelse]

I am at this moment in time on the phone to my sister who lives in Texas, is Ike likely to be upgraded and when, she has been warned to tie things down etc, how bad do you reckon this could be

Texas is ... kind of big ... Probably need a buit more info than that.

Ike is likely to be pretty bloody nasty ... at least a cat 3 at landfall, perhaps a cat 4.

Forecast discussion 39 just issued.

000

WTNT44 KNHC 102050

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED

WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS

OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A

DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN

WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE

ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE

OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT

MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER

HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE

MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.

NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR

HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH

ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE

NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE

WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS

BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO

COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS

IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED

LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE

GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED

THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH

AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP

FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY

LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS

IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER

CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE

AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT

12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT

24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT

36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT

48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT

72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Roger J Smith]

I can't recall too many highly damaging hurricane landfalls in Texas other than the 1900 Galveston hurricane of course.

There have been heavy rainfall events around Houston but some ot those were from tropical storms and there was not much wind damage or storm surge with those.

Corpus Christi, a city of about 300,000 has not had a damaging hurricane landfall that I can remember, for example. Hurricane Allen in 1980 was a very strong storm but it came inland in the sparsely populated "King ranch" country south of Corpus, there is one county in that region with a population of 500 people and a couple of million cows.

I've seen some cat-1 type landfalls around Port O'Connor, can't remember the specific storms and these were 10-20 years ago now, but these did limited damage. So if a cat-3 hurricane comes inland in that region, say Port O'Connor to Bay City, it will be a first major test of the defenses in that area, I believe, and so it will be interesting to find out what the defenses and targets are like. The region is flat but not quite as flat as the Louisiana coast, and there are barrier islands that will break up storm surge except into estuaries perhaps (like the Brazos River).

I still think Galveston and Houston are at risk, this storm is going to turn north for sure and when they do that and there is any forecast error, it is usually east rather than west of the track consensus.

[Mondy]

FYI Bouy 42001 is likely to be hit head on ... and I mean smack bang head on in about 18 hrs time ... watch this one.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Perhaps.

Ike will jog around a little during the next 18hrs.

On this loop, he doesn't look particularly good.

**the loop does take longer to load than others, but worth the wait.

[hoghedge]

Thanks opplevelse - yes that is one of them, though I swear there was an actual Satellite pic loop where you could show points as well.

Jan I've friends in both Galveston and Houston (and a property)... my friends tell me they are on alert now and ready to evacuate if required - hopefully it will hit part of a low population area - but we just have to wait and see a bit further down the road.... (sorry for low pop area, but it's the lesser of two nasties).. and of course at a low cat rather than a full blow cat 5

Edited September 10, 2008 by hoghedge

[opplevelse]

Perhaps.

Ike will jog around a little during the next 18hrs.

On this loop, he doesn't look particularly good.

**the loop does take longer to load than others, but worth the wait.

perhaps I should have said "According to the majority of models" either way it will be bloody close.

And I dont think Ike looks too bad on that WV animation. Apart from the dryness on its west side, I think it looks fairly healthy. If you look at the IR and Vis loops, it certainly shows continual improvement, unlike Gustav which never really got it together.

[Mondy]

Vortex Recon: 952mb

That is a drop of 6mb in the last hour.

--

URNT12 KNHC 102119

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 10/21:01:40Z

B. 24 deg 28 min N

086 deg 01 min W

C. 700 mb 2699 m

D. NA kt

E. 0NA deg 000 nm

F. 214 deg 080 kt

G. 129 deg 046 nm

H. 952 mb

I. 10 C/ 3049 m

J. 16 C/ 3049 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. E09/10/8

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 12

MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68KT NW QUAD 20:59:30Z

[Coopsy]

It seems the last 12 hours its moved really slowly, just sitting there soaking up the warm waters and expanding and strenthening.

What an interesting 36 hours ahead of us

[Mondy]

It's one HUGE system http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

Already taken up one third of the GOM: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...e_vis_ls_0.html

And now with a pressure drop of 6mb in 1 hour, looks like something "special" is developing

[londonsnow]

i dont think it'll be long before ike is top of of the news agenda again

[PersianPaladin]

Favoured track seems to be between Free Port and Corpus Christi: -

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

[kold weather]

ECM and the 12z GFDL have been the trend setters with Ike...both go into the Galveston area, something to keep a very close eye on.

Anyway Ike maybe starting to finally sort its inner core issues out. It has a very low pressure right now for a borderline 1/2 hurricane, recon found pressure down to 950mbs recently. The main reason is becuase it has a double eyewall structure which has meant a very large wind field and therefore has not allowed Ike to become a very powerful hurricane, but at the same time has allowed Ike to become a very large hurricane.

Hints of some changes now though as the inner eyewall once again seemingly starting to become stronger and better defined and seems to be slowly starting to become the more dominant. If that does happen then the winds will catch upto the pressure very quickly and Ike will likely jump to major status pretty rapidly.

[SMU]

Vortex Recon: 952mb

That is a drop of 6mb in the last hour.

--

URNT12 KNHC 102119

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 10/21:01:40Z

B. 24 deg 28 min N

086 deg 01 min W

C. 700 mb 2699 m

D. NA kt

E. 0NA deg 000 nm

F. 214 deg 080 kt

G. 129 deg 046 nm

H. 952 mb

I. 10 C/ 3049 m

J. 16 C/ 3049 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. E09/10/8

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 12

MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68KT NW QUAD 20:59:30Z

Thermal gradient up from 4c to 6c now... when it hits 10 we are rocking....

S

[Mondy]

Favoured track seems to be between Free Port and Corpus Christi: -

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

Now that is a very good website! http://www.stormpulse.com/

Edited September 10, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[kold weather]

The crazy thing is Ike still isn't really increasing its winds and central pressure now down to 945mbs. In many ways this reminds me of a system that is undergoing a EWRC, they tend to have lower winds then the pressure would suggest.

[SMU]

The crazy thing is Ike still isn't really increasing its winds and central pressure now down to 945mbs. In many ways this reminds me of a system that is undergoing a EWRC, they tend to have lower winds then the pressure would suggest.

942 mb

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 940 overnight and flight winds upto 98Kt probably enough to take him to 90Kts at the next advisory.

The path still seem to be between Corpus and Galveston. With The area around Houston getting the greatest storm surge.

The slow intensification continues, personally I don't like the small eye its far to fragile for Ike to really ramp up this needs to be bigger maybe 20 miles across instead of 7.

Ike is big, IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

With Hurricane winds in the north sectors reaching out over 100 miles already by the time it makes landfall the likes of Galveston will almost certainly get min of CAT 1 winds likely higher. This is a big problem for the locals, how far do they evacuate ?. Realistically anybody near the centre would need to go 100-150 miles to be safe and we are talking about some major Texan cities here.

Recon are in so lets see what they find this fine morning. !

[Iceberg]

Pressure up to 945mb and winds in the low 80's so far as they passed through the NW quad.

Equal winds inthe SE quad as well.

055130 2434N 08644W 6985 02903 9812 +078 +060 212081 083 068 038 03

055200 2433N 08642W 6958 02945 9826 +075 +060 211082 082 066 024 03

055230 2432N 08641W 6965 02944 9825 +083 +060 212077 079 065 015 03

055300 2431N 08640W 6968 02948 9833 +083 +060 215077 078 065 016 00

055330 2430N 08639W 6967 02957 9832 +090 +060 218074 074 066 011 00

055400 2429N 08638W 6964 02966 9833 +095 +060 219074 074 065 010 00

055430 2428N 08636W 6968 02966 9840 +095 +060 218077 079 065 010 00

055500 2426N 08635W 6971 02973 9860 +085 +060 216079 081 063 011 00

055530 2425N 08634W 6961 02986 9864 +085 +060 219078 079 064 010 00

055600 2424N 08633W 6973 02983 9868 +090 +060 219077 078 064 009 00

055630 2423N 08632W 6965 02997 9862 +100 +060 216078 078 062 009 00

055700 2422N 08630W 6966 03003 9870 +098 +060 216079 081 061 008 00

055730 2421N 08629W 6963 03007 9875 +100 +060 212078 079 059 010 00

055800 2420N 08628W 6967 03006 9885 +095 +060 213076 076 059 011 00

055830 2419N 08627W 6967 03012 9891 +093 +060 215077 078 058 012 00

055900 2417N 08626W 6967 03019 9901 +090 +060 215075 076 059 012 00

055930 2416N 08624W 6967 03023 9908 +088 +060 216072 073 058 011 00

060000 2415N 08623W 6966 03025 9912 +087 +060 218073 073 057 012 00

060030 2414N 08622W 6965 03030 9919 +085 +060 218072 072 056 013 00

Edited September 11, 2008 by Iceberg

[opplevelse]

Internal structure of Ike has not improved anywhere near as much as I would have hoped overnight. There is still not well defined eye, but Ike is still a massive system and continues to deepen.

Bouy 42001 pressure still dropping rapidly with gusts to 40knts, and wave heights 6.1m but Ike is still a long way!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...it=M&tz=STN

Track has also shifted Northwards very slightly overnight, and ike is looking to come very close to Houston.

[Iceberg]

I agree opplevelse, The shift north is not good news. Looking at the distance of the high winds from the centre it's highly likely that both Houston and Galveston will be in the worse area/zone. A shift further north would actually help them.

063000 2444N 08548W 6968 03052 9958 +079 +060 188080 086 043 027 00

Winds of 86Kts at flight level now recorded this morning, still shy of the high winds of last night but the NE quad hasn't been tested yet.

Edited September 11, 2008 by Iceberg

[opplevelse]

Pressure falling rapidly now at 42001. Down to 999.2 falling at over 3.4 per hour. Wind gusts now over 40knts and sustained over 35knts

Wave height over 6.5m