Major Hurricane Ike

[opplevelse]

a good link for current conditions > http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/

-edit- I was about to say that wasnt the right link ... but seems you have fixed it

Great link! Will have a play

[MAF]

Latest observations, still only light winds on the coast but 89mph in the gulf on buoy 42361

wind speed/air pressure data for that buoy

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pr...;time_label=CDT

[Iceberg]

Ike is really anoying me now...

Latest Vortex still cannot find an eye, however structurally Ike is looking very good atm (best in the last 24 hrs IMO).

Winds are still increasing (maybe down to the failure of the eye wall).

What oh what is Ike upto under that Mass of Deep convection near the centre.? Is it forming a new outer wall maybe 30-40 mile diameter.?. are the winds really just greatly convection enhanced ?. What are the real surface winds of Ike ?.

Lot and lots of questions.

Also as an aside he has been upped to 90Kt now so 100mph sustained winds, ( but these are 50 miles outside of the centre to the north).

URNT12 KNHC 120853

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 12/08:28:30Z

B. 26 deg 39 min N

091 deg 35 min W

C. 700 mb 2697 m

D. 61 kt

E. 266 deg 48 nm

F. 348 deg 078 kt

G. 265 deg 039 nm

H. 953 mb

I. 14 C/ 3051 m

J. 18 C/ 3062 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 28

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT NE QUAD 08:46:20 Z

MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 81 KT NE QUAD 08:41:30 Z

Edited September 12, 2008 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

I thought these might be useful, they show how close Galveston is, I have a feeling it might be pretty much destroyed by the sea.

Houston, Pasadena, Missouri City are all Close by and directly in the worse path. The whole area is very very flat and very built up.

[Cookie]

I Have just palyed catch up and can't bealive how strong this system has got, and the track as well.

[hoghedge]

Most models now in agreement

Looks as though all bets are off - Galveston it is - sigh..... Poor everyone there.. Can only hope that we don't see further development. Good shots Iceberg, hope you're right about it not strengthening....

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[Gray-Wolf]

The US networks are telling us he is strengthening. I think he will be on the up and up as he makes landfall as he will have sorted out his internal 'organisation issues' by mid-day (local time) and we'll see an eye appear at long last. How big will the eye be? goodness only knows!

[geoffw]

will this be as bad as katrina flooding wise?

[opplevelse]

I thought these might be useful, they show how close Galveston is, I have a feeling it might be pretty much destroyed by the sea.

Houston, Pasadena, Missouri City are all Close by and directly in the worse path. The whole area is very very flat and very built up.

OMG is that windows 2000 you are running?

FYI Buoy 42361 is not in fact a buoy it is an oil/gas platform

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

Pressure still dropping rapidly, and windspeed increasing, I would think the "eye" will be over it in ab hour or so.

Still measuring sustained winds around the 80knt (148km/h) mark. -edit- but I should add, those wind speeds are taken at a height of 122m AMSL

Edited September 12, 2008 by opplevelse

[hoghedge]

I'm so surprised that Sky isn't covering this - I have emailed them and told them to check out netweather.tv !!! I mean this is more major than Gustav surely? Given the historical events

[MAF]

Advisory #45 now issued

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/120841.shtml

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585

KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...

SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY

OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG

BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...

165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF

400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE

HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

[kold weather]

Surge still going to be pretty huge, probably akin to a category-4 . The surge measure which measures the danger of the surge is at 4.8 (out of 6) , which is about where Katrina was upon its landfall so we will probably see a very similar size surge into Galveston and also into a good chunk of western LA and SE Texas in general.

Ike is producing a lot of deep convecton once again and winds have increased a little though they still don't really justify category-3 yet however.

Whether this comes in as a 2 or 3 isn't going to make a huge difference now, at 105mph Ike will still cause a decent amount of wind damage, Houston will probably get cat-1 force gusts, depending on exactly what part of the circulation they are in and that will be enough to blow the glass out on the skyscrapers.

Galveston seawall will be topped quite likely, to what degree remains to be seen. At the very least the waves will top over in a big way, worst case is the surge itself is a good 3-4ft higher then the wall and if that happens widespread flooding will occur.

Other parts of the coast facing exceptional 20-25ft surge, the coast will be ruined and the coastline of E.Texas/W.LA will be left in a very bad state, in fact there may not be much left at all of coastal places, remember what some places looked like after Katrina, this will have a very similar effect.

This will almost certainly go down as one of the most costly hurricanes ever...

[Iceberg]

From Galveston to Houston is approx 30-40 miles, plotted below are is the GFDL track which is almost identical to the NHC plot.

Core winds are to the north at approx 50 miles so most of this area to Houston will experience sustained winds of between 80-100 mph.

[hoghedge]

From Galveston to Houston is approx 30-40 miles, plotted below are is the GFDL track which is almost identical to the NHC plot.

Core winds are to the north at approx 50 miles so most of this area to Houston will experience sustained winds of between 80-100 mph.

Using that map Iceberg, and given what Kold Weather has just said, how far inland will the storm surge affect - I know some parts of Houston are not supposed to be in the flood plains - but could this storm turn that into nonsense?

Hoggy

[opplevelse]

Station 42361 just recorded a sustained wind speed of 91.2knts (170km/h) at 122m AMSL

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 91.3 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.83 in (976hPa)

Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F

Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F

Heat Index (HEAT): 86.2 °F

Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Edited September 12, 2008 by opplevelse

[Coast]

will this be as bad as katrina flooding wise?

Because of Ike's wide scope -- it is larger geographically than Hurricane Katrina was in 2005 -- it could bring a storm surge of up to 25 feet (7.6 metres), normally associated with larger storms.

www.reuters.com

Residents of vulnerable coastal areas like Galveston Island are under a mandatory evacuation order. They face 111 mile per hour (177 kph) winds and tidal surges of up to 20 feet (6 metres) if Ike makes landfall as a dangerous Category 3 storm as expected late on Friday. Texas governor Rick Perry urged residents to heed evacuation orders in such low-lying areas of the Gulf of Mexico that face severe flooding from tidal surges and heavy rains. Some have decided to stay, boarding up their windows and preparing to move to higher floors ahead of the storm's surge, which is tipped to top Galveston's 17-foot (5-metre) sea wall and flood the island from end-to-end by daylight on Saturday.

[opplevelse]

Central part of Ike now JUST becoming visible on this Radar loop

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20...=radar&MR=1

[MAF]

its Huge!!

Courtesy

AFP/GETTY

[Coast]

Extensive and up to date Houston weather forecast feed: CLICKY

[kold weather]

Expected surge:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif

Notice Galveston bay at 16.7...the sea wall there is at 17ft, going to be a very close call, if the track is a little left then it will be topped by the surge.

[hoghedge]

Expected surge:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif

Notice Galveston bay at 16.7...the sea wall there is at 17ft, going to be a very close call, if the track is a little left then it will be topped by the surge.

Oddly, They don't seem to be making much of an issue about that on Houston TV - KPRC TV weather fellow just said that Ike's getting ragged to the N/E as it's dragging in dry air, but on that side they expect lots and lots of tornadoes, and that he doesn't expect it exceed a Cat 2

http://www.click2houston.com/video/10903347/index.html

EDIT: That's shows the surge fantastically KW - thanks for that

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Hoggy!

I'm plugged into them myself and the Guy on the Beach is already retreating as his peir gets eaten up by the gulf. He reckons the top of his dune is 15' and it is already being overtopped and eroded :o .

Just imagine how this will be in 18hrs!!! (add in the winds)

[opplevelse]

Station 42361 just registered 95.2knts (176kmh) and is still a little way from the "eye"

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 49.0 m/s

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 973.9 mb

Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.0 °C

Dew Point (DEWP): 24.0 °C

Heat Index (HEAT): 30.1 °C

Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[kold weather]

Impressive winds even if it is at 122 meters, we shall have to see how high it goes!

Surge is the biggest threat by far with Ike, the winds still are going to be damaging even if Ike holds at 105mph but the biggest story for a big chunk of the western gulf coast will be surge.

[hoghedge]

Hi Hoggy!

I'm plugged into them myself and the Guy on the Beach is already retreating as his peir gets eaten up by the gulf. He reckons the top of his dune is 15' and it is already being overtopped and eroded :o .

Just imagine how this will be in 18hrs!!! (add in the winds)

Hi GW

Yes - did you see those who are staying :o in Galveston!!!!!!... jeez dumb or brave, I'm not sure which. If you look at KW's link, I'd be gone, and quickly.....

Hoggy