Major Hurricane Ike

[SMU]

The eye on the updated radar- superimposed is the hurricane track-

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/sa...atatcfzoom.html

Last 3 frames a definate jog towards a 210 track- the longer this motion holds the least land interaction with cuba-

This thing runs out to the south.....

follow it here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

S

Edited September 7, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goesea..._med/latest.jpg

[Gray-Wolf]

Initialy i thought it a trachoidal wobble but it seems too 'set' in it's course (no 'swing back') for that now.

I don't like the idea of this track as , to my thinking, it favours the models that put it over Cuba twice and that could rip the structure apart.......or not.

I'm looking for it to run more NW, around the HP ,and through the straights between Cuba/Florida

[londonsnow]

ike is still cat 4 according to the latest from noaa, and the eye is over great inagua island, a place up to now i had never heard of. i wonder if anyone on here has ever been under the eye of a hurricane. i doubt it, but it must be the most eerie yet terrifying experience. does the wind drop off completely?

[kold weather]

I'd have probably downgraded it now to a 3 based on the recon data from earlier but any Great Inagua island is getting hammered by the eyewall of Ike, Matthew Town should be in the eye very soon.

Long term track of 265 but it is wobbling a lot on that track. Given foward motion Ike should be inland in Cuba in about 12hrs.

I still think this weakens down to 45-55kts TS over Cuba but conditions are very good indeed over the gulf so even if it exits Cuba a lower end TS that is far far from an all clear and I'd still be expecting a cat-2/3 landfalling hurricane in the gulf coast, possibly close to where Gustav made landfall...though may be a touch further west I'm not sure yet but its going to have 72-96hrs over the very warm waters of the gulf, plenty of time to resetrengthen.

[Yozzer]

ike is still cat 4 according to the latest from noaa, and the eye is over great inagua island, a place up to now i had never heard of. i wonder if anyone on here has ever been under the eye of a hurricane. i doubt it, but it must be the most eerie yet terrifying experience. does the wind drop off completely?

Agree. In his book, 'Down Under,' Bill Bryson describes a soundtrack made during a typhoon that flattened Darwin. The terrifying sound of destruction, followed by an eerie silence, followed by the even more terrifying destruction once the eye had passed had a profound effect on him by all accounts. Anyway, have a look at some of the recordings on YouTube, some remarkable vids of flights through the eye.

[geoffw]

whats the percentage chance of Ikes landfall being stronger than Gustav and how bad will it be for NO?

[Paranoid]

Currently the 5 day forecasts seem to show Ike not hitting NO, and heading towards Texas instead. I don't know what the other models are showing though. As for strength, it depends on the effect Cuba has on Ike's structure.

[londonsnow]

Agree. In his book, 'Down Under,' Bill Bryson describes a soundtrack made during a typhoon that flattened Darwin. The terrifying sound of destruction, followed by an eerie silence, followed by the even more terrifying destruction once the eye had passed had a profound effect on him by all accounts. Anyway, have a look at some of the recordings on YouTube, some remarkable vids of flights through the eye.

thanks yozzer. i might check that book out. it must be so bizarre to be in intense winds and then for everything to fall light so suddenly. i guess years ago it must have caught a lot of people out, thinking the storm was over.

[Yozzer]

Although NOAA and NHC going for a Cat 3 making landfall well to West of NO, FEMA and the authorities must be making initial plans for another evacuation, even if the call doesn't actually come. If my memory serves, Katrina hit more to the east than initially forecast, hence their current state of 'twitchiness' which is entirely understandable. Ike could be the 'sucker punch' to Gustav.

[londonsnow]

with three major mountain areas in cuba, i think ike will emerge a mighty mess into the GOM. it will be interesting to see what happens after that. current track not a huge worry for new orleans but with a beast like ike i'm sure the whole north gulf coast are watching him very closely. in the meantime the focus is now cuba, and hopefully they are prepared

[Fwoggie]

Agree. In his book, 'Down Under,' Bill Bryson describes a soundtrack made during a typhoon that flattened Darwin. The terrifying sound of destruction, followed by an eerie silence, followed by the even more terrifying destruction once the eye had passed had a profound effect on him by all accounts. Anyway, have a look at some of the recordings on YouTube, some remarkable vids of flights through the eye.

He went to the Museum & Art Gallery of the Northern Territory in Darwin, NT, Australia. They play it in a darkened room, it's quite something. Check out wikipedia's entry for Cyclone Tracy. It was a heck of a storm; particularly tiny yet viciously strong - the debate is out as to whether it was a high cat 4 or low cat 5. Either way, total laminate floor for it to hit xmas eve night of all days - many residents were in xmas mood, not paying attention to the weather and didn't see it coming. It's notorious in Australia's identity and for sure has to be one of the most well known cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes that has ever happened.

[Iceberg]

He's kind of looking good again, a little turn to the north in the is viewable, could be course correction or an effect on the second eye wall creation which is clearly visable on Cuban Radar.

ECM sticks to a Texas, Galvestonish kind on hit, on par with GFDL and the NHC.

[SMU]

He's kind of looking good again, a little turn to the north in the is viewable, could be course correction or an effect on the second eye wall creation which is clearly visable on Cuban Radar.

ECM sticks to a Texas, Galvestonish kind on hit, on par with GFDL and the NHC.

I JUST POSTED A LONG MSG ON eaus- ( top)

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...60#entry3023055

Critical 12-18 hours of IKE-

Crucially the last VDM was 21N & est now ~21.2/3 -

Landfall was supposed to be 21N so we are already North of HNC track-

lets see if its a jog or the recurve arriving early-

S

Edited September 7, 2008 by Steve Murr

[sabrewulf]

this models dont look good for Cuba. looks like this is going to tear down the entire length of the island!

[sabrewulf]

hurricane track from the NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../144313W_sm.gif

Edited September 7, 2008 by sabrewulf

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 7 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 90% currently

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 55% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Mondy]

http://uk.youtube.com/user/WIV4

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=FQxJU_vt5qY&feature=user

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GXpcIpilEPA

http://www.mogulus.com/wiv4

Edited September 7, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Cookie]

thanks for the links delta

[Mondy]

http://uk.youtube.com/user/WIV4

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=FQxJU_vt5qY&feature=user

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GXpcIpilEPA

http://www.mogulus.com/wiv4

[Roger J Smith]

Major damage reported from the Turks and Caicos Islands, caller to CNN news says that 90% of the homes there have sustained major damage and quite a few are destroyed, also large flooding problems from storm surge.

Would think that southeast TX might be the eventual destination of Ike.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Outer bands of Ike have also hit Haiti again with another 47 reported killed. Damage to Haiti after being hit by 4 tropical storms in just three weeks is said to be "catastrophic."

[milkmaid]

what time are we talking about landfall in cuba

[Iceberg]

It make landfall in Cuba a few hours ago, the eye is now completely inland. The outer eye wall that had partly formed has now collapsed inner eye wall is looking good still though on Cuban Radar.

Depending on track Cuba might completely destroy Ike, GFDL makes this a CAT 2 on Ike leaving Cuba but I think this is way to generous.

I still think that an area between Corpus Christi and Galveston will be the likely US landfall.

[Coast]

Pick your model: