Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[opplevelse]

It was the meteorologist at http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

that said it. I'm just passing it on. Obviously you know better.

I bow down to your knowledge.

thank you... you should! ... media "meteorologists" ...

Anyway ... eye has visually collapsed again on the Vis and IR images, but still looks semi stable on the radar.

No recent amazing data from any of the buoys.

I'm off to bed, if the little one decides I am allowed.

Right as part of a test run, I've opened a new thread which is desinged for the Human aspect of hurricane Ike:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49499

That thread is to be used to talk about the evacuations, the flooding, the damage to property and other such topics.

This thread is now to be used solely on the weather side of Ike, for example, chat about recon, about the strength.

I accept there may be some overloop between the two topics however we will move posts that are obviously related to the other thread.

Thank you.

THANK YOU!!!!!

[Iceberg]

Just heard the dep director of the NHC saying that recon is indicating that Ike is currently strengthening. When we get the Recon !.

[PersianPaladin]

thank you... you should! ... media "meteorologists" ...

Well to be fair; they are doing an important job and will reach more people on the radio and TV than us amateur's.

[opplevelse]

before I try and sneak off ... here is the latest 85GHz pass, it shows there is still a huge amount of very heavy convection on the south east quadrant, and that likely loops around to the North east as well (although the scan didnt cover that).

To be honest, in this, only 4hrs ago, Ike looks better than it ever has

[Glacier Point]

Even when Ike enters downtown Houston; it will still be a Category 2 hurricane according to forecasters.

So 100mph winds plus flooding will not be a pleasant experience for that area.

100+ for buildings at altitude, of which there are many, just as Ike strengthens just before landfall. This has always been an odd storm with a diverse structure with wind speeds much in advance further up. Looks like the ECM was on the button with the last minute intensification.

My punt would be for landfall just to the east of Galvaston. The latest IR shows an intense bank of convection to the south and east of the storm which will drag the body that way.

The main point of this is the huge impact that this storm surge will have. Unfortunately, this is beyond metreology now.

[kold weather]

Just heard the dep director of the NHC saying that recon is indicating that Ike is currently strengthening. When we get the Recon !.

Yep indeed just waiting for the recon mission going on now and whether they can find winds that once again justify a major, we shall have to wait and see.

Anyway the rains are nearly onshore now and with that the TS force winds should start to be coming in as well.

[opplevelse]

Well little one decided she needed a feed so woke daddy up so I decided to play around with the most recent MODIS true colour shot of IKE from 17:05 UTC today

This is my modded version to highlight cloud top features. Click on pic for much larger and sharper (although still only half resolution) version

This is the original ... warning VERY VERY LARGE!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtim...171000.250m.jpg

Edited September 12, 2008 by opplevelse

[SMU]

Yep indeed just waiting for the recon mission going on now and whether they can find winds that once again justify a major, we shall have to wait and see.

Anyway the rains are nearly onshore now and with that the TS force winds should start to be coming in as well.

Finally.... Just at the wrong time....

Although one ounce of gd news is VDM fix is North of guidence

S

WATER VAPOUR INDICATES NO MORE DRY AIR- CAT 3 is on the way ( REAL CAT 3)

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Megamoonflake]

The wind is visibly getting stronger by the minute on Stu's webcam, http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/strea...nson&uid=24

[kold weather]

Remember Steve, with such a huge eye recon can not possibly get a good fix on the center and in truth its going to make very little difference to the eventual outcome sadly.

However yep Ike does seem to have tightened up and has finally decided to get a classic set-up, I do wonder whether land friction upon its outer part of the system has allowed Ike to tighten up its previous flabby form?

[SMU]

Remember Steve, with such a huge eye recon can not possibly get a good fix on the center and in truth its going to make very little difference to the eventual outcome sadly.

However yep Ike does seem to have tightened up and has finally decided to get a classic set-up, I do wonder whether land friction upon its outer part of the system has allowed Ike to tighten up its previous flabby form?

true- lets see where it pans out over the next 2-3 hours-

In terms of development- Could be land friction- I would like to see the WV loop for the whole day to see how that continental dry air has been moving today-

LAST IMAGE :o

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

S

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Radar showing the rainbands with the main storm CDO now moving into the Galveston Bay region, TS winds should be moving into the region right now I'd imagine and so conditions will be going downhill very soon as well and the surge will tak another big ramp up as well soon as well after sticking around 8-9 feet recently.

[robl1200]

Thanks for that loop, is it me or does IKE look to be heading more Westerly now?

[Gray-Wolf]

Radar showing the rainbands with the main storm CDO now moving into the Galveston Bay region, TS winds should be moving into the region right now I'd imagine and so conditions will be going downhill very soon as well and the surge will tak another big ramp up as well soon as well after sticking around 8-9 feet recently.

We are at low tide so the 'stall' in the surge is as the tide goes out and is matched by the rising surge. When the tide turns we'll see some faster rises and it'll be high tide after 3a.m local time.

[PersianPaladin]

true- lets see where it pans out over the next 2-3 hours-

In terms of development- Could be land friction- I would like to see the WV loop for the whole day to see how that continental dry air has been moving today-

LAST IMAGE :o

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

S

Billowing convection on the south-east quadrant confirms that this thing is intensifying before landfall and there could be some nasty rainstorms combined with some very strong downbursts in that part of the eye-wall as it crosses land.

[Roger J Smith]

Just wanted to underline the fact that storm surge levels will increase dramatically due to two factors, high tides near landfall and 12 hours later, and the winds veering NE to SE to SSW pushing more and more water towards land -- if as many suspect the pressure were to drop to 940 mbs and cat 3 winds developed, then a further five feet of storm surge could develop.

I've recently heard that Galveston evacuations were thought to be 70-80 per cent, not sure how many of the 20-30 per cent are above second storey residents or able to get there.

I believe the landfall will be right over Galveston at 06z or 0100 CDT. You'd better put some coffee on, folks.

[kold weather]

Also should be noted there are a few tornado warnings out in LA right now, thats pretty normal as the state is in the NE quadrant and that tends to have the greatest tornado threat.

Radar suggesting Ike is tightening as we see more land friciton come into play, this may aid some slight strengthening.

[kold weather]

By the way the NHC have now upped the winds to 110mph and are still saying an upgrade to category-3 is possible before landfall.

[kaz]

Fox on sky are saying its 1mph away from being a cat 3 ...

[PersianPaladin]

Wind speeds in Galveston gusting to 60mph atm, and the wave-heights seem to be fairly consistent with only gradual rises.

[kaz]

Wind speeds in Galveston gusting to 60mph atm, and the wave-heights seem to be fairly consistent with only gradual rises.

hi pp from what i can get from fox news, the tide is on its way out but when ike comes in it will coincide with high tide (gulp)

kaz

[hoghedge]

Yes, it appears the main surge will come from the back of the eye according to most....it looks pretty certain there will be an 18 - 20ft storm surge, this coinciding with high tide?

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[hoghedge]

Rain bands and wind are now on the way in - expecting landfall in 2 hours -

[Katherine]

Why can't I see any of the pictures you're posting?

[hoghedge]

I really don't know - I can see them!!!

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47B

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN

LOUISIANA COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO

NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO

PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT

FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...

INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70

MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES

...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13

MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT

WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY

MORNING AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...

ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING

THE PAST HOUR...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON

GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY

JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET

IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE

CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN

USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE

CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE

NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST

SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER

EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...94.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited September 13, 2008 by hoghedge