January CET

[reef]

OK i take your point but you have to agree with my point that this January has hardly seen double digit maxima throughout central and southern england apart from London on a few days. It has been extremely different compared to the likes of January 2005 and January 2007. There has been NO blowtorch southwesterlies atleast.

next week some frosts are likely in CET land so i do not think 3.5C will be breached.

Yes there I do agree, maxima have never really been much above the 30 year average this month. Double figure temperatures have been quite rare.

It reminds me a lot of August 2008. The month had a mean equal to the 1971-2000 average yet was percieved by many as a cold month. This was generally because maxima were below average and minima above and people associate how warm/cold a month has been with what they feel during the day.

That said though, we've been conditioned to thinking these blowtorch south-westerlies are the norm in January due to recent years, but in reality they used to be just as rare as the potent cold. These days however January has been such a mild month on so many occasions that its seen as 'cool' weather when temperatures are actually bang-on the average. Indeed, the last 20 years have seen January average 5.0C.

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes there I do agree, maxima have never really been much above the 30 year average this month. Double figure temperatures have been quite rare.

It reminds me a lot of August 2008. The month had a mean equal to the 1971-2000 average yet was percieved by many as a cold month. This was generally because maxima were below average and minima above and people associate how warm/cold a month has been with what they feel during the day.

That said though, we've been conditioned to thinking these blowtorch south-westerlies are the norm in January due to recent years, but in reality they used to be just as rare as the potent cold. These days however January has been such a mild month on so many occasions that its seen as 'cool' weather when temperatures are actually bang-on the average. Indeed, the last 20 years have seen January average 5.0C.

Very good points. I know I have often remarked before that our cold is nothing like as intense as it used to be. There have been frosty nights, and by recent standards a few very cold ones, but it's still the case that where on occasions we used to reach -3, -4, -5C widely, and sometimes over several consecutive nights, we often seem nowadays to think -1 or -2C is worthy of note.

[The PIT]

Isn't the terminology cool spell rather than cold???

[Duncan McAlister]

I was going to make a post detailing the possibility of a sub 3C month but having seen last night's minima, way milder than expected, and the milder forecast from the Met Office, it now looks very doubtful

[Kentish Man]

Hadley on 3.0C this morning (Jan 1 - 24) with Climate UK (Manley) still 0.2C behind on 2.8C.

There is a little more upside potential in the models than seemed apparent a few days ago. However breaching 3.5C after the month end adjustment will still be a surprise.

[Snowly does it]

LOL, so the CET rises 0.1 on Thursday with overnights of 4 or 5 and maxima in double figures in places and it rises 0.1 when all the CET stations were sub zero overnight and 2 of te 3 did not get above 7 in the daytime with the other one possibly around 8?

Well, there you go, cold nights and average days = a rise in the CET late in the month and the fantasy 3.5 is on the menu.

Corrections should ensure it ends on 3.3 though

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think about 3.3C is likely for Jan and in terms of any winter month based on long term average that is good value, espcially constituting back to back below average months. And even more especially with prospects for February looking increasingly much colder, then this winter should stand out pretty well (not exceptional by any means) against the long term mean, and not just measured against the last decade either.

Those who now suggest that it should have been colder than it has been, or instead of the -5s we used to get, we now get -3s etc etc were last winter arguing that the sort of return being seen this winter was no longer achievable!

So in terms of moving goal posts (to sustain an underlying belief about alleged interminable upward trends), I belive IMO that this Jan (which could be extrapolated to include the winter as a whole as it has been below average so far and is likely to stay so) is now being judged by similar people against the outlier coldest winters, that have always been the exception rather than the norm.

We all know that the recent couple of decades have seen higher temps (almost certainly as a result of usual cyclical changes IMO) but I think there are dangers in not keeping perspective when data is viewed narrowly just through omnipresent 'AGW/GW eyes'

Edited January 25, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Snowyowl9]

Does look that little bit milder this coming week but couldn`t see many if any double figure maxes that was countryfile shown 8c - 9c which would put it in the mild category for January,As for 6c - 7c about average.

If GFS SE-ly comes off those will be lower.

3.3c looks the safer bet now,January 2001 was 3.2c

Still only 2.8c on Climate UK upto the 24th.

[West is Best]

whatever we go for the CET remains unchanged I'd say.

Maxima 6.5, minima -0.5, maybe a little lower - average 3 or a little lower - no net change to the running mean

Hadley now up to 3.0C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

A mild night last night, and again today so well on course now for the 3.5C to 4C landing zone that I've been suggesting for some time. (Edit Now now Charlotte don't go blaming dodgy data! Hadley was on 2.95 so a mean yesterday of 3C+ was enough to lift it up again.). With more mild in the mix there is no way I can see this not pushing onwards and upwards as we close the final week of the month. The real issue for me is whether 4C can be breached. Unlikely I'd say (perhaps around 20%) but not impossible. I favour something in the region of 3.6C to 3.8C.

Edited January 25, 2009 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

Hadley now up to 3.0C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

A mild night last night, and again today so well on course now for the 3.5C to 4C landing zone that I've been suggesting for some time. (Edit Now now Charlotte don't go blaming dodgy data! Hadley was on 2.95 so a mean yesterday of 3C+ was enough to lift it up again.). With more mild in the mix there is no way I can see this not pushing onwards and upwards as we close the final week of the month. The real issue for me is whether 4C can be breached. Unlikely I'd say (perhaps around 20%) but not impossible. I favour something in the region of 3.6C to 3.8C.

yes I had worked it out at 2.9 - raw maths tells us that it must have been just shy of 2.95 as the minima were well below average yesterday. I am not blaming dodgy data. Manley is still on a rounded up 2.75 to 2.8 and has been running just shy of 0.2 behind so I think we can assume Haldey is on 2.96 or thereabouts.

I see we are back to the 4c game are we? Do you honestly think that there is any chance at all, let alone 20%, that this coming week will average 7 degrees? Maxima are unlikely to average much above 7 in the first half of the week

3.1 by tomorrows update, no change on Tuesday's update, no change on Wendesdays update, 3.2 Thursdays update. 3.3 Fridays, 3.4 Saturday and then adjusted 3.3 when the final figure is released on Sunday

I fear we will just miss the lowest CET in the 21st century this month.

[reef]

yes I had worked it out at 2.9 - raw maths tells us that it must have been just shy of 2.95 as the minima were well below average yesterday. I am not blaming dodgy data. Manley is still on a rounded up 2.75 to 2.8 and has been running just shy of 0.2 behind so I think we can assume Haldey is on 2.96 or thereabouts.

I see we are back to the 4c game are we? Do you honestly think that there is any chance at all, let alone 20%, that this coming week will average 7 degrees? Maxima are unlikely to average much above 7 in the first half of the week

3.1 by tomorrows update, no change on Tuesday's update, no change on Wendesdays update, 3.2 Thursdays update. 3.3 Fridays, 3.4 Saturday and then adjusted 3.3 when the final figure is released on Sunday

I fear we will just miss the lowest CET in the 21st century this month.

Well there goes another chance at sub-3C! A shame really as its the closest we've come in years (along with March 2006 perhaps).

I wouldnt be so sure of a rise tomorrow, the minima went down as just 1.3C last night as many places turned colder before the cloud moved in from the west.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_min_est_2009

Im also thinking 3.5C before adjustment is a good landing point at the moment.

[Snowly does it]

Well there goes another chance at sub-3C! A shame really as its the closest we've come in years (along with March 2006 perhaps).

I wouldnt be so sure of a rise tomorrow, the minima went down as just 1.3C last night as many places turned colder before the cloud moved in from the west.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_min_est_2009

Im also thinking 3.5C before adjustment is a good landing point at the moment.

That will get adjusted I think Reef - not one of the CET stations was under 3.5 after 9pm on the MetO site last night - I don't understand that reading at all

[Snowyowl9]

I wouldnt be so sure of a rise tomorrow, the minima went down as just 1.3C last night as many places turned colder before the cloud moved in from the west.

I thought it wasn`t mild last night even with my 2.3c and wet.

[Snowly does it]

Well, I can't find a single site in the CET zone which recorded anything as low as 1.3 degrees after 9PM last night. That figure is surely wrong. I am outside the CET and got to 1.1 before it started to rise - but thats in the East and I was rising before 9PM - the west of thr CET was already under cloud by then

[Stratos Ferric]

I think about 3.3C is likely for Jan and in terms of any winter month based on long term average that is good value, espcially constituting back to back below average months. And even more especially with prospects for February looking increasingly much colder, then this winter should stand out pretty well (not exceptional by any means) against the long term mean, and not just measured against the last decade either.

Those who now suggest that it should have been colder than it has been, or instead of the -5s we used to get, we now get -3s etc etc were last winter arguing that the sort of return being seen this winter was no longer achievable!

So in terms of moving goal posts (to sustain an underlying belief about alleged interminable upward trends), I belive IMO that this Jan (which could be extrapolated to include the winter as a whole as it has been below average so far and is likely to stay so) is now being judged by similar people against the outlier coldest winters, that have always been the exception rather than the norm.

We all know that the recent couple of decades have seen higher temps (almost certainly as a result of usual cyclical changes IMO) but I think there are dangers in not keeping perspective when data is viewed narrowly just through omnipresent 'AGW/GW eyes' :blink:

Can't speak for any of the other you might have been referring to Tamara, but for my part this winter, far from blowing a hole in my personal hypothesis (sub 3 is no longer possible), does nothing other than cement it. As to February looking cold, I'm not seeing any evidence; I am seeing plenty of wishful thinking on one or two of the threads though, still, if that's all people can cling to when all they're inetrested in is cold then so be it. Not sure anyone else said this sort of winter was not achievable (I didn't), but it would seem to be at the limits of what is...you only have to read back to the satrt of this thread to ses that most of the movement in expectation this month has come from those hollering originally for a month that wouldn't have looked out of place in the 60s-80s.

Like it or not the background rise in inexorable, and just as 3C looks like it's about the floow now for a calendar month, in a decade or so that will likely be 3.5C or 4.

Charlotte, I suspect your pondering re strange increases is probably down to marginal rounding at the second d.p. Like you I've been a bit surprised at yesterday's increase.

Well there goes another chance at sub-3C! A shame really as its the closest we've come in years (along with March 2006 perhaps).

Perhaps one of the last we'll ever have, save for the type of 1:500 event that freakishly arrives occasionally out of nothing - though I'm suspecting that the the necessary enablers of even that (on a downside event) no longer exist.

[TEITS]

Can't speak for any of the other you might have been referring to Tamara, but for my part this winter, far from blowing a hole in my personal hypothesis (sub 3 is no longer possible), does nothing other than cement it. As to February looking cold, I'm not seeing any evidence; I am seeing plenty of wishful thinking on one or two of the threads though, still, if that's all people can cling to when all they're inetrested

I actually think that comment is very disrespectful to some of the excellent posts made on the stratosphere thread for example.

There are actually occasions where your biased towards warm has led you to make some incorrect forecasts. For example didn't you say in Dec the CET will be above 4C? Didn't you once start a thread titled "out of control warming" where you suggested a below average winter month is unlikely and so is an annual CET of below 10C?

How ironic that since you made this thread we have seen poor summers with below average months and more recently seen Dec come in below average. Didn't the CET of last year come in just below 10C?

Believe it or not SF but you do actually get it wrong at times!

[Snowly does it]

Can't speak for any of the other you might have been referring to Tamara, but for my part this winter, far from blowing a hole in my personal hypothesis (sub 3 is no longer possible), does nothing other than cement it. As to February looking cold, I'm not seeing any evidence; I am seeing plenty of wishful thinking on one or two of the threads though, still, if that's all people can cling to when all they're inetrested in is cold then so be it. Not sure anyone else said this sort of winter was not achievable (I didn't), but it would seem to be at the limits of what is...you only have to read back to the satrt of this thread to ses that most of the movement in expectation this month has come from those hollering originally for a month that wouldn't have looked out of place in the 60s-80s.

Like it or not the background rise in inexorable, and just as 3C looks like it's about the floow now for a calendar month, in a decade or so that will likely be 3.5C or 4.

Gonna have to disagree with a good deal here. In terms of cold - we had this in 2005/2006 which was possibly 'as cold as it can get now' - we are well below at this stage and in with a reasonable chance of being below 96/97 in terms of overall temperatures - it seems, and it may well be just an appearance, but it seems that every time a mark of some type or another is set on the downside, this becomes an artificial floor - why should it be? Its not like January set out and said 'OK, lets go for the coldest possible' - large parts of the month have seen classic average synoptics bringing slightly above average temperatures, there have been a few very mild days and the long cold spell at the outset. December was 1.6 below the 71-00 average, even if this is 'as cold as it can get' (which it clearly isn't unless December also decided to be absolutely as cold as it could as a challenge) which would imply a floor of 2.6 in a winter month surely?

If 3 is the floor and below 3 in the future is a 1:500 year event.... this makes no sense either - 3.0 would be a cold month at the very limit of expectation but a slightly harsher frost on the 31st makes in a 1:500 event? Unless we are saying near to 3 is a 1:100 event......

'Not seeing any evidence' - Ensembles, SSW, these are all evidential, you just may not agree with them. Evidence however is there - looking at ensembles and the like is not wishful thinking, its a forecasting technique which may or may n ot prove fruitful.

Most of the movement has been away from the upside actually - on the downside many were saying sub 3 'possible' (and one or two saying probable) or around 3 and now we are looking at maybe 3.3 - on the upside we have come down from an upper 5.5 'or higher' to 3.6 to 3.8

If nights are cold we could still see an adjusted 3.1 imo - this would need an average of about 4 (say 0 or 1 by night and 6 to 8 by day) and a downward correction of 0.2 or 0.3 (similar to December)

Can it be colder? Of course it can

Will it?

[West is Best]

Well, I can't find a single site in the CET zone which recorded anything as low as 1.3 degrees after 9PM last night. That figure is surely wrong. I am outside the CET and got to 1.1 before it started to rise - but thats in the East and I was rising before 9PM - the west of thr CET was already under cloud by then

I agree Charlotte. That figure would be remarkable given the sharp rise as the cloud moved in. Even beforehand the minima looked to be in the 3-4C range. Would be interested in Reef's thoughts.

I see we are back to the 4c game are we? Do you honestly think that there is any chance at all, let alone 20%, that this coming week will average 7 degrees? Maxima are unlikely to average much above 7 in the first half of the week

3.1 by tomorrows update, no change on Tuesday's update, no change on Wendesdays update, 3.2 Thursdays update. 3.3 Fridays, 3.4 Saturday and then adjusted 3.3 when the final figure is released on Sunday

I fear we will just miss the lowest CET in the 21st century this month.

20% chance, which means 70% for me in the 3.5 to 4C range, and 10% below.

But I don't agree about Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. To get no change you need to be fairly sure of averaging 3C and I think we'll be much higher than that. So an inexorable rise continues I think even before the southerly plume arrives on Thursday.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Stratos Ferric: I made contextual comments about the perception of whether this Jan is cold or not and how that fitted into the similar general theme of the season so far. I have no wish to derail the thread OT and respond to what you said, other than refer you to the concise replies from others subsequent to your reply. As ever it is best left as a case of agreeing to disagree.

A lot (most) of those cold wishful thinking people are, and have, actually tried to dig down, learn up and find facts to substantiate their POV. And they can do more than that. The forum is a lot different to, say, 2005 and people have moved on now IMO

[J10]

Looks like my 3.7c call is above to be above the mark, but it might just get a bonus for being within 0.5c though.

[Snowly does it]

But I don't agree about Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. To get no change you need to be fairly sure of averaging 3C and I think we'll be much higher than that. So an inexorable rise continues I think even before the southerly plume arrives on Thursday.

To get a change from 3.0, the mean needs to be 5.5, then it will be 3.1 and would need 5.7 to get a 0.1 rise on the following day etc

Overnights look reasonably low for the next 3 nights (although this I appreciate is an imprecise science) I may be 0.1 too low but no more than three 0.1 rises in the next 4 updates for me - I think it will be 2. We are also on just over 2.95 by my calcs, not 3 itself so you need a further degree or so for the first 0.1 rise.

Thursday's plume looks like arriving overnight with ground frosts and for many is off the continent - it won't produce very high maxima, there is neither the wind nor the sea track for that.

[damianslaw]

Oh well chances of a sub 3 degree month are now preety slim, still on course for abelow average CET though, first for January since 2001, however, I think 3.3 will be the finishing mark, slight chance though ot ic oming in at 3.2 - pity a couple of the nights coming up will be quite mild notably thursday by the look of things.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Can it be colder? Of course it can

Will it?

As I've been saying for a few years now, and despite the fact that cold fanatics don't like it, we STILL HAVE NOT had a sub 3.0C month since 1997. For sure we had a fortyish day spell below that mark, but it was punctuated by some warmth that scuppered the calendar average. All that does is ratehr align with my contention: sustained cold, as sustained and as cold as it occasionally used to be, is now a thing of the past I think.

When I run I don't like the fact that I can no longer get down to 37' for 10k. Age adjusted norms allow me to compare my times and adjust for age, but the sad fact is that as the body ages it becomes less athletic. With training I have good months, but the trend in absolute performance is inexorable.

Just in case anyone hasn't noticed, it would be remarkable indeed to have a warming climate but cooling winters. Quite why my assessment is treated - often by the same people who are the last to let go of any real prospect for cold - as if I have taken leave of my senses is beyond me. Every year the same people rail, every year we do not get a sub 3C month: in fact it is now 35 winter months since our last sub 3. Can anyone tell me when we last had a run that long?

...A lot (most) of those cold wishful thinking people are, and have, actually tried to dig down, learn up and find facts to substantiate their POV. And they can do more than that. The forum is a lot different to, say, 2005 and people have moved on now IMO

That might be a freudian slip Tamara, or it might be careless English, but it had me hooting. My point of view is based on the facts as I see them. There's a not too subtle difference.

I actually think that comment is very disrespectful to some of the excellent posts made on the stratosphere thread for example.

There are actually occasions where your biased towards warm has led you to make some incorrect forecasts. For example didn't you say in Dec the CET will be above 4C? Didn't you once start a thread titled "out of control warming" where you suggested a below average winter month is unlikely and so is an annual CET of below 10C?

How ironic that since you made this thread we have seen poor summers with below average months and more recently seen Dec come in below average. Didn't the CET of last year come in just below 10C?

Believe it or not SF but you do actually get it wrong at times!

EITS, read again CAREFULLY what I wrote. I didn't mention specific threads, or suggest ALL posts. If you want to over react so be it, but you would have to have Nelson's eye to believe that every post on N-W that calls for cold is objective. If that were the case, if it were even halfway the case, the UK would be located at around 75N not 53N!

I don't recall saying anything about the CET in December actually. IN reference to January my punt was 3.2C: clearly the act of a madman. Can I enquire what you guessed at before we start making judgments regarding the inherent bias of posters on here...

[Snowly does it]

As I've been saying for a few years now, and despite the fact that cold fanatics don't like it, we STILL HAVE NOT had a sub 3.0C month since 1997. For sure we had a fortyish day spell below that mark, but it was punctuated by some warmth that scuppered the calendar average. All that does is ratehr align with my contention: sustained cold, as sustained and as cold as it occasionally used to be, is now a thing of the past I think.

I'll agree to differ at this stage.

Watch February make a little Stratos Monkey outta you

[Yeti]

EITS, read again CAREFULLY what I wrote. I didn't mention specific threads, or suggest ALL posts. If you want to over react so be it, but you would have to have Nelson's eye to believe that every post on N-W that calls for cold is objective. If that were the case, if it were even halfway the case, the UK would be located at around 75N not 53N!

I don't recall saying anything about the CET in December actually. IN reference to January my punt was 3.2C: clearly the act of a madman. Can I enquire what you guessed at before we start making judgments regarding the inherent bias of posters on here...

SF, you are the one who needs to read CAREFULLY what you wrote, not TEITS; you miraculously seem to have changed your story! You said that you cannot see "any evidence" for February being a cold month (ignore the bit about the threads, that is exactly what you said). Does that mean you discount the link between a warm stratosphere propagating to lower levels and cold weather in the UK? If you do not discount this link, then what you said cannot be true, as that is evidence, and you said you can't see any.

Of course there's hopecasting going on in places - there always is - but to claim that there is no evidence as to why February should be cold is nothing short of ridiculous and is perhaps even more ill-founded than hopecasting. I see no reason why hopecasting is any worse than discounting real and tangible evidence.

TEITS is right; you have always claimed that a below average CET was becoming more and more difficult and perhaps impossible, but this year has come out below average once again and 2009 is starting off the same way. Some of those comments made on your thread that TEITS mentioned look glaringly out of place at the moment.

As I've been saying for a few years now, and despite the fact that cold fanatics don't like it, we STILL HAVE NOT had a sub 3.0C month since 1997. For sure we had a fortyish day spell below that mark, but it was punctuated by some warmth that scuppered the calendar average. All that does is rather align with my contention: sustained cold, as sustained and as cold as it occasionally used to be, is now a thing of the past I think.

Furthermore, whilst it is true that we haven't had a sub 2c month since 97, you cannot use this and concretely say that sustained cold is a thing of the past. Of course, it's the best evidence we have, but in a court case, the judge doesn't look at all the evidence, see that there isn't enough and make a rash decision based upon the best he has. Rather, he waits for more evidence.

Similarly, 300 years ago everyone thought that swans were white, because all the swans they had ever seen were white.

Then John Latham went to Australia and found a black one.