January CET

[Stratos Ferric]

I'll agree to differ at this stage.

Watch February make a little Stratos Monkey outta you

I'd love to be incorrect in my projection, but let's look back at this month. Ten bitter days by any standard that would bear comparison in pretty much any winter, and still we look like being well clear of 3C, clear by, say, 12 cumulative C. Against the mean that's another 3-4 days close to zero to return 3C.

On the assumption that we can no longer sustain a cold period longer than a couple of weeks, and accepting that mild when it comes is milder than it used to be (up at 5C days on average - the second and third terciles this month will both be at around 5C or more, and this hasn't been a month with any notable mild days), then it's easy to see why 3.0C presents a hurdle. By late Feb nowadays we can start to see springlike days, you don't need many of those to b*gger things up. The caveat is that Feb in recent years has tended to herald late season HP: not always cold, but relatively reliable. It would be easy to extrapolate that to this year, and assume colder than normal, but the risk in that would be the assumption that a colder background would provide the same drivers - it probably wouldn't. Anyway, that's next month.

As to this month, WIB's 3.5C isn't totally outlandish. I certainly agree that the recent trend in GFS has been topside of projection, but today, suddenly, and in addition to this factoring, the model has broken clear topside of recent forecasts. I still think 4C is way out of reach, but 3.5C before adjustment isn't out of the question.

[Yeti]

By late Feb nowadays we can start to see springlike days, you don't need many of those to b*gger things up.

To be fair and objective, 2 of the 2nd halves of the last 4 Februaries have been cold with northern blocking.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120050222.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120060222.gif

We know what March has been like, too -

So that's half of the last four Februaries - perhaps what is to be expected in terms of deviation from the mean?

Also, I think you'll find that even before "nowadays" we could start to see springlike days in late Feb; it's not all that new a phenomenon is it?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119570228.gif

[Duncan McAlister]

On the assumption that we can no longer sustain a cold period longer than a couple of weeks

But this isn't the case as you admit yourself the CET zone had a sub 3 spell of 40 days

Edited January 25, 2009 by Duncan McAlister

[Stratos Ferric]

...By late Feb nowadays we can start to see springlike days, you don't need many of those to b*gger things up. The caveat is that Feb in recent years has tended to herald late season HP: not always cold, but relatively reliable. It would be easy to extrapolate that to this year, and assume colder than normal, but the risk in that would be the assumption that a colder background would provide the same drivers - it probably wouldn't. Anyway, that's next month.

...for the benefit of those at risk of getting a bit ahead of themselves, and trying to spar with the person, rather than engage in the debate...

[Snowly does it]

As to this month, WIB's 3.5C isn't totally outlandish. I certainly agree that the recent trend in GFS has been topside of projection, but today, suddenly, and in addition to this factoring, the model has broken clear topside of recent forecasts. I still think 4C is way out of reach, but 3.5C before adjustment isn't out of the question.

yes, its possible, I favour below it though

[Stratos Ferric]

But this isn't the case as you admit yourself the CET zone had a sub 3 spell of 40 days

Yes, but did either December or January (short of an astonishing turn around in the next week) produce a sub 3.0C month? We've had this debate umpteen times now, it's harder to produce a calendar month at sub 3 than it as any given run of thirty days. That's one of the reasons behind my whole contention.

Sustained cold would need to be sustained and continuous. December, like January, will not beat 3.0C because the cold is NOT sustained. The forty day average works because it brings in two distinct cold periods with a mild sandwich. Nowadays, with the PFJ further polewards, we are never far away from mild air. With the jet stronger on average, blocking is less persitent.

[Snowyowl9]

To be fair and objective, 2 of the 2nd halves of the last 4 Februaries have been cold with northern blocking.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120050222.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120060222.gif

Yep february 2005/2006 had some great easterlies.

As for warm spells last years was unique with frosty nights and warm days 12c but not as warm as february 1990 not here at 3c higher in 1990 with very mild nights aswell more wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120080209.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119900223.gif

[Yeti]

...for the benefit of those at risk of getting a bit ahead of themselves, and trying to spar with the person, rather than engage in the debate...

That doesn't answer any of the points I put to you though SF; "HP being a feature" is not the same as specifically northern blocking, which was my point. When is HP not a feature in our weather, may I ask? That just avoids any specifics so that you can flag it up to support any scenario, be it a Bartlett, Dreamland High or British High.

I have written two posts there and you have seemingly ignored them and accused me of getting at you rather than your argument!

Edited January 25, 2009 by Yeti

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

That might be a freudian slip Tamara, or it might be careless English, but it had me hooting. My point of view is based on the facts as I see them. There's a not too subtle difference.

Tough I guess when some of us have to research facts while others are so gifted with them being available at the tip of the tongue so naturally.

You are also so right on the button once more - careless english indeed. Another weakness

I will stick with 3.3C for months end finish (inc likely adjustments)

Ta ra!

[Kentish Man]

Hadley remains on 3.0C today (Jan 1 - 25) although Climate UK (Manley) edges up by 0.1C to 2.9C.

[Snowyowl9]

Going by GFS theres 2 chillier nights coming from midweek as the SE-ly comes in.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn6617.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn9017.png

[Stu_London]

Hadley has nudged up to 2.8C to the 22nd

GFS 06z would indicate that the CET will land at 3.1C (way below some of the outlandish dreams posted on here of late).

I think the tendancy for GFS to undercook maxes will be offset by a downward correction at month end.

Therefore if we are more than 0.2C either side of that, I would be very suprised.

Vary happy with this prediction at present - very much on course

[West is Best]

Vary happy with this prediction at present - very much on course

Of all the many bumps I've seen around the fora of the world, this self-bump combined with self-pat is hilarious; especially as I think you're taking a hell of a risk. I still think 3.5C to 4C is the landing zone. The past 24 hours has been distinctly mild. I'd be gob-smacked if it stayed on 3.1C.

Ah well, all a bit of harmless fun.

Edited January 26, 2009 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

Of all the many bumps I've seen around the fora of the world, this self-bump combined with self-pat is hilarious; especially as I think you're taking a hell of a risk. I still think 3.5C to 4C is the landing zone. The past 24 hours has been distinctly mild. I'd be gob-smacked if it stayed on 3.1C.

Ah well, all a bit of harmless fun.

Minima was 3.2, maxima was probably 8 on average (Northolt by far the mildest but other sites near Rothamsted more in the 8 range so I guess this is where it ends up)

5.6 for the day maybe - possibly 6 - a rise of 0.1 from the current (which is fractionally over 3.0 - cumulative 75.5) to 3.1 I think....

Minima tonight could drag things down for the following day - Pershore is already sub-zero and Hawarden is about 2 with the London sites starting to fall

I am starting to wonder if I went in 0.1 too low with the bet..... all down to minima and how continental the flow is Friday and Saturday

[West is Best]

Minima was 3.2, maxima was probably 8 on average (Northolt by far the mildest but other sites near Rothamsted more in the 8 range so I guess this is where it ends up)

Yes the maxima might well be a bit higher with Hawarden on 7.5C, Pershore on 8.3C and Northolt on 10.1C.

My calculations of a 3.6C finish allow only for a 0.1C increase today so anything more is a bonus. 6C from there sees it home at 3.6C.

[Snowly does it]

Yes the maxima might well be a bit higher with Hawarden on 7.5C, Pershore on 8.3C and Northolt on 10.1C.

My calculations of a 3.6C finish allow only for a 0.1C increase today so anything more is a bonus. 6C from there sees it home at 3.6C.

Northolt was fairly unrepresentative though as it outdid central London - Rothamsted was probably a little lower

You'll get your 0.1 today though, definitely.

I thik its now 3.2 to 3.5 - I am upping a little and bringing defeat into my expectations at the upper end. Such is my honesty and goodness.

You won't get 6 tomorrow by the way - you'll need maxima of 10 plus, you won't get them :unsure:

[Stu_London]

Of all the many bumps I've seen around the fora of the world, this self-bump combined with self-pat is hilarious; especially as I think you're taking a hell of a risk. I still think 3.5C to 4C is the landing zone. The past 24 hours has been distinctly mild. I'd be gob-smacked if it stayed on 3.1C.

Ah well, all a bit of harmless fun.

going to be very grey and cold in the CET zone today following a chilly night - no rise for the 27th

Note my prediction included a probable adjustment at month end (could be as much as -0.3C)

Your tone seems to be claiming some sort of victory. You must have been watching the GFS parallel run too much because your posts are from a parallel universe. Not a snowball in hell chance of getting to 3.5C from here.

Edited January 27, 2009 by Stu_London

[noggin]

Hadley remains on 3.0C today (Jan 1 - 25) although Climate UK (Manley) edges up by 0.1C to 2.9C.

Thank you, Kentish Man, for this straightforward post! I often pop in to find out how the CET is doing and end up trawling and wading through so many posts and figures that I feel quite weary!

I know that it is a discussion thread and figures will be speculated upon, mulled over, chewed and spat out, but I just wanted to acknowledge the service provided by KM.

Thank you.

[reef]

Hadley is now at 3.1C after yesterday came in at 5.5C.

Note my prediction included a probable adjustment at month end (could be as much as -0.3C)

I wouldnt be so sure on such a big downward correction. There have been a few questionable minima lately which are likely to be corrected upwards if anything.

[Optimus Prime]

I wouldnt be so sure on such a big downward correction. There have been a few questionable minima lately which are likely to be corrected upwards if anything.

What do you mean by questionable? It's been cold in the south lately. I seem to remember you saying it almost certainly wouldn't get below 3.8c in December, and that ended up on 3.5 so i think you're being conservative again this time around.

I really can't see where WIB is getting 3.6c from or 3.5c. I think 3.3c before adjustments in the most likely.

[Weather-history]

But this isn't the case as you admit yourself the CET zone had a sub 3 spell of 40 days

It was actually 50 days

22nd November - 10th January CET: 2.8

[Stratos Ferric]

Still looking like 3.2C, before adjustments, from where I'm sitting.

[LadyPakal]

Still looking like 3.2C, before adjustments, from where I'm sitting.

Very close to that, I agree.

[Snowly does it]

Still looking like 3.2C, before adjustments, from where I'm sitting.

I tink that may be a little low - not sure. Tonights minima look like staying fairly high under the rain for the Pershore and Stonyhurst stations and tomorrows maxima will average fairly high. We are at 3.1 (3.11 actually) - possible we could be rounded up to 3.3 by the update for the 28th - from there maybe another 0.1 before we close out the month

I think we could well end on 3.4 and there may be a rounding from there (last nights minima only -0.5 on Hadley which seems too high - Pershore was nearly -3, Northolt as reoresentative of Rothamsted was low and Hawarden/Woodford were both around freezing.)

I think it will end on 3.2, but it will be higher befre it is adjusted

[West is Best]

I think it will end on 3.2, but it will be higher befre it is adjusted

The previous night's frost certainly lost 'me' a 0.1C. Still think we're on for a 3.5C or 3.6C finish. It won't rise more than an invisible 0.05C on yesterday's data but after that 4 days of rises especially after last night and today which will post a 6.5C to 7C CET mean I think. Mins tonight won't get much below 3C and then another mild day tomorrow, which will be the theme until 31st Jan. The slightly cooler weather will be stuck east out of the CET zone.

Edited January 28, 2009 by West is Best