January CET

[Nick H]

Still think we're on for a 3.5C or 3.6C finish.

Not unless there's a major month-end adjustment to come. Manley is on 3.0C to the 27th.

Northolt as reoresentative of Rothamsted

I think Luton Airport would be more representative, or even High Wycombe. Northolt, despite being a suburb of Greater London, certainly does get unusually cold at night (as well as unrepresentatively warm by day, especially in summer).

Edited January 28, 2009 by Nick H

[reef]

Hadley hardly budged today (0.01C in fact) as yesterday came in at 3.4C. Today's minimum temperature is down as 1.4C which looks a bit too low again to me. The next two days look a tad milder, so I feel we could end up on around 3.3C before adjustment at the month's end.

I would say to anyone expecting a big adjustment downwards at the month's end to be cautious. A few times this month have seen average minima recorded that seem way too low. Last night is a prime example, temperatures didnt really fall much below 3C or 4C (Pershore actually had a min of 5C) yet the average minima is down as 1.4C. If this is widespread during the month, it wouldnt be inconcievable to see a correction upwards.

[Optimus Prime]

I always thought the end of month correction was to take into account the Urban Heat Effect?

[Snowyowl9]

The slightly cooler weather will be stuck east out of the CET zone.

Your underestimating the colder SE-ly as it`s going to be more a west east split as clearer air comes in from the SE.

No chance of 3.5c now unless something drastic in wind direction from the SW.

3 to 3.3c. :lol:

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn5417.png

[West is Best]

I was actually expecting to throw the towel in this morning on my 3.5C, but the minima held up surprisingly high again so I still think this is possible. Hadley will be up to 3.2C today.

The final unadjusted figure is going to be extremely close to 3.5C I think.

[Kentish Man]

With just 3 days to go Philip Eden's Climate UK site has the following monthly stats:-

CET: (Jan 1-28): 3.1°C (-1.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jan 1-28): 89.2mm (105 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jan 1-28): 59.5hr (119 per cent)

His final CET figure is usually quite close to the adjusted Hadley figure. On that basis we should get up to 3.2C today as the CET area has been quite mild overnight, noticeably more so than in Kent where we are starting to feel the cooling effect of the surface flow off the continent. The final two days should see litle change so there is still a chance we may equal the coldest month of C21st , the 3.2C recorded in Jan 2001.

Thank you for your kind words Noggin in post 468 :lol: . I think the real praise should go to Jackone for compiling the monthly competition stats. Also for whoever compiles the guesstimate list at the start of the month as I know from experience that is quite time consuming!

[West is Best]

The final two days should see litle change

Three days because Hadley's figure today will be up to 28th, still leaving 29th, 30th and 31st.

3.5C still looking possible to me. Some mean 5 to 7C days coming up, starting today. Minima stayed surprisingly high last night. From 3.2C x 28 (which should be the position later) the mean needs to be around 5.8C to take it to 3.5C. Shouldn't be too far away from that, though again it all depends on the nights.

Edited January 29, 2009 by West is Best

[Kentish Man]

Three days because Hadley's figure today will be up to 28th, still leaving 29th, 30th and 31st.

3.5C still looking possible to me. Some mean 5 to 7C days coming up, starting today. Minima stayed surprisingly high last night. From 3.2C x 28 (which should be the position later) the mean needs to be around 5.8C to take it to 3.5C. Shouldn't be too far away from that, though again it all depends on the nights.

It depends if you believe the GFS temp profiles. Tomorrow is shown as averaging about 3C in the CET zone on the 00z GFS run with Sat supposedly a little higher. Overall I expect a cooling trend to emerge with the continental air starting to dig in. Finishing zone for me 3.2C or 3.3C after m/e adjustment.

[Kentish Man]

Just to complete the picture Hadops is on 3.2C today (Dec 1 - 28).

Temps are now falling in the CET zone - Pershore peaked at 7C early yesterday evening, its now dropped to 4C and may fall further later this afternoon. Nevertheless we should see a 0.1C rise tomorrow but thereafter it is looking static - so in all probability a 3.3C unadjusted finish.

[Snowyowl9]

Yes indeed temps have really dropped off this afternoon much more than I expected feels very cold already, even this far west it was around 6c this morning and felt quite mild and dropped to 2c this afternoon and windy with such a mild upper still with us aswell.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn062.png

Frost tonight in the CET zone tonight.

[V for Very Cold]

I really can't believe I've got my fingers crossed for the "milder" air to hang on til the end of the month as I'm within the ball park for the january CET

[Stu_London]

Yes indeed temps have really dropped off this afternoon much more than I expected feels very cold already, even this far west it was around 6c this morning and felt quite mild and dropped to 2c this afternoon and windy with such a mild upper still with us aswell.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn062.png

Frost tonight in the CET zone tonight.

Can we rule out sub 3 taking into account month end adjustments?

[Snowly does it]

Can we rule out sub 3 taking into account month end adjustments?

Can't be ruled out - tomorrow's update will either see it stay at 3.2 or possibly nudge up to 3.3 (it was 3.17 rounded to 3.2 today) - I think it needs an average of around 5 to get to 3.25 and round up.

In any case, a chance with a cold night tonight etc that we could possibly lose the rounding and end up around 3.2 and from there, who knows? December adjusted down by 0.3 though......

Low chance, but a chance nonetheless. In the same vein, given that a couple of the minima entries look very low recently, perhaps an upround is possible so 3.5 is still in play theoretically - but only after adjustment, no chance of an unadjusted 3.5 I'd say.

[stewfox]

Are we going to do a Feb CET ?

Cant find it ?

[James M]

Are we going to do a Feb CET ?

Cant find it ?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t=0&start=0

[Snowyowl9]

Can we rule out sub 3 taking into account month end adjustments?

2.9c even,still running 7c lower here to 1997,the beginning of this month was well overdone it didn`t add up,we`ll see.

Colder last few days besides tomorrow as milder is coming back in with the rain 1 day only.

Edited January 29, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Duncan McAlister]

Today and tomorrow look like having pretty much a neutral effect on the CET. Assuming a 0.1C rise for yesterday, I think it'll be 3.3C before adjustments, 3.1C post.

[Stu_London]

Same again today - 3.2C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Snowly does it]

minima last night are down as 2.4 - seems high but then again some have been low so ok. Hadley is 3.23 rounded to 3.2 so it is likely tomorrow will see a rise to 3.3 and then I would think it will finish there - all down to roundings and adjustments, but I think 3.2 is a likely finishing number now - equalling the coldest month of the 21st century so far.

[Weather-history]

For the 7th consecutive month, the CET monthly maximum average is going to be below the 1971-2000 mean for Manley.

[reef]

Hadley is on 3.3C (3.27C rounded up). This will likely be the final number before any adjustment as the minima for today is down as 3.1C.

At months end a 0.2C downward adjustment will be required for the coldest month since January 1997. If it comes out at 3.2C or below, then it will be the first winter since 1996/97 that two winter months have been 1C or more below the average.

February would then need to be 6.9C for the winter as a whole to be equal to the 1971-2000 average.

Edited January 31, 2009 by reef

[The PIT]

Well we're going to sneak in at 3.0C that's 0.8C below average for us. Unless we get something like ten degrees overnight that is.

CET should stay around 3.3C so we're waiting the adjustment.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

For the 7th consecutive month, the CET monthly maximum average is going to be below the 1971-2000 mean for Manley.

When was the last time that happened?

[Optimus Prime]

When was the last time that happened?

November 2005 - March 2006 was the last time in recent years there has been mean maxima below average for so long.

November 05' 9.2c (-0.7c)

December 05' 7.1c (-0.1c)

January 06' 6.3c (-0.2c)

February 06' 6.2c (-0.7c)

March 06' 8.1c (-1.5c)

Compare this to the current run;

June 08' 18.3c (-0.0c)

July 20.4c (-0.8c)

August 08' 19.6c (-1.2c)

September 08' 17.1c (-0.7c)

October 08' 13.2c (-0.9c)

November 08' 9.2c 08' (-0.3c)

December 08' 6.0c 08' (-1.6c)

January 09' 5.5c (most likely) (-0.9c)

That's, including June which was only fractionally below, 8 months in a row where mean maxima is below normal. And there's a lot of well below averages ones in there too. 

[Optimus Prime]

Manley's figure has come out as 3.2c (-1.0c)

First half 1.9c (-2.3c)

Second half 4.5c (+0.3c)

Very cold first half, rather mild second

Very dry first half, very wet second

Average sunshine first half, Very sunny second half

Exceptionally cold first 10 days averaging -0.7c (-4.9c below average)

Very mild 11th-20th 5.7c (+1.5c above average)

Safe to call January a month of two very different halves.

At 3.2c, it's provisionally the coldest month of the century so far and the coldest January since 1997 (beating 2001 which came in as 3.37c)

Edited February 1, 2009 by Optimus Prime