Snow Watch: North West England

[Maz]

Still a covering of snow, just about, in Summerseat, with the hills above showing the benefit of elevation.

Tomorrow/Friday does not yet appear to be a done deal. Form horse is for the front to stall to the south of us, but given enough energy, our region, or some parts of it, could get some snow.

After the front a NNW might set in Saturday, possible Chesire Gap showers (won't effect me, but parts of area in firing line if this happens).

The GFS ensembles have showed a ppn peak and coldish uppers on Sunday for a while now - another chance of transitory snow maybe, more likely an event where elevation will help. Although this far out treat with a pinch of salt as changes to the Thursday/Friday event will clearly have a knock on effect on what actually transpires.

So its not all doom and gloom. We have cold air and low pressure which is always a good combination!! May not deliver here, but lots of potential.

[Louise]

Lol now I have a dilemma should it actually be snow and not horrid rain... I said I was going to my parents tomorrow morning for the night (just by Mcr Airport), it would just be my luck that we would get it here and it wouldn't travel up as far as Manchester!

[karyo]

How annoying! We had a cloudy night which stopped the temperature from falling as low as predicted. And now the sun came out and the temperature shot up to 4c, higher than expected!

Anyway, the good news is that the models have moved tomorrow's precipitation a little further north today so we should get some snow from it although the heaviest falls still look to be over in central Wales and the Midlands.

Karyo

[SP1986]

4.0C here too at the moment, and a rapid thaw of remaining snow commencing. Got down to 0.9C last night so not as cold as predicted.

Still cant see much scope for snow on Thursday, it may change though.

[M'Lady]

4.0C here too at the moment, and a rapid thaw of remaining snow commencing. Got down to 0.9C last night so not as cold as predicted.

Still cant see much scope for snow on Thursday, it may change though.

3.9ºc here and just a few meagre patches of snow remaining on a couple of house rooves.

I thought you were spot on about Monday's snow Stephen... you said that, if we did get snow, it wouldn't last long, and that's exactly what happened.

I'm impressed, but really wish you'd been wrong. :ph34r:

My hopes aren't high for Thursday/Friday either... I'm not basing it on anything other than the extreme rarity of snow events in these parts.

[cheshire snow]

Weather warning now out for NW England for Thurs from the UKMO :ph34r:

[swainclubber]

Weather warning now out for NW England for Thurs from the UKMO :ph34r:

good stuff

[SP1986]

3.9ºc here and just a few meagre patches of snow remaining on a couple of house rooves.

I thought you were spot on about Monday's snow Stephen... you said that, if we did get snow, it wouldn't last long, and that's exactly what happened.

I'm impressed, but really wish you'd been wrong. :ph34r:

My hopes aren't high for Thursday/Friday either... I'm not basing it on anything other than the extreme rarity of snow events in these parts.

Yes furthermore, the air is likely to be much more moderated than on Monday, I think therefore particularly in coastal areas, rain or sleet is a more likely outcome. The funny thing is, that this winter has shown me one thing - and that's that we get the same weather as south coast of UK. If its snowing there, it will snow here. If its raining it will rain here, it's a pattern I've picked up on for a few years..

By the way un explainably the sun has come out and the temperature has rocketed to 6.7C despite my thermometer being placed in the shade, this higher than most other area in the locality, although Chester is currently at 6C

[James M]

Well the temp is up to 4.1°C and a definate thaw setting in, in fact some of the hills are starting to look green again.

Edited February 4, 2009 by James M

[Weather-history]

I notice the Liverpool Airport TAF has updated and now has snow included.

No snow in this early morning TAF

long-TAF: EGGP 040457Z 0406/0506 12010KT 9999 BKN010 TEMPO 0406/0411 6000 BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0406/0410 4000 BR BKN004 BECMG 0409/0412 9999 FEW018 BECMG 0419/0422 6000 PROB40 0420/0506 4000 BR

But it does now in the latest one

long-TAF: EGGP 041100Z 0412/0512 13006KT 7000 BKN008 BECMG 0412/0414 SCT020 PROB40 0412/0422 9999 PROB40 TEMPO 0423/0510 3000 BR BECMG 0506/0509 6000 -SN BKN012 BECMG 0509/0512 03010KT TEMPO 0509/0512 1200 SN BKN004

[SP1986]

I notice the Liverpool Airport TAF has updated and now has snow included.

No snow in this early morning TAF

long-TAF: EGGP 040457Z 0406/0506 12010KT 9999 BKN010 TEMPO 0406/0411 6000 BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0406/0410 4000 BR BKN004 BECMG 0409/0412 9999 FEW018 BECMG 0419/0422 6000 PROB40 0420/0506 4000 BR

But it does now in the latest one

long-TAF: EGGP 041100Z 0412/0512 13006KT 7000 BKN008 BECMG 0412/0414 SCT020 PROB40 0412/0422 9999 PROB40 TEMPO 0423/0510 3000 BR BECMG 0506/0509 6000 -SN BKN012 BECMG 0509/0512 03010KT TEMPO 0509/0512 1200 SN BKN004

Yes the TAF does quite clearly show a broken nature with the snow, which suggests the band will be breaking up. It will be interesting if the cold arctic air reaches the region at the same time but the lower dewpoints and drier air generally may wipe the snow out, so it's touch and go I suppose for our region at the moment.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

my snow is starting to melt quite quickly now.Last night was above zero when that blastec cloud moved in and now the temp is approaching 5 degrees!

BBc went for max of 2 so a very disappointing 24 hours here

[Weather-history]

Yes the TAF does quite clearly show a broken nature with the snow, which suggests the band will be breaking up. It will be interesting if the cold arctic air reaches the region at the same time but the lower dewpoints and drier air generally may wipe the snow out, so it's touch and go I suppose for our region at the moment.

I'm not sure what you are talking about Stephen. What the difference in the two TAFs says to me is that the preciptation is now predicted to move further north than original thought which is why the Met Office warnings have moved a bit further north and hence why the Liverpool TAF whilst not showing snow before is now .

Edited February 4, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

BBC going for plenty of snow for the NW tomorrow although the graphics highlighted the snow fragmenting as it moved through Northern lancs

[SP1986]

I'm not sure what you are talking about Stephen. What the difference in the two TAFs says to me is that the preciptation is now predicted to move further north than original thought which is why the Met Office warnings have moved a bit further north and hence why the Liverpool TAF whilst not showing snow before is now .

What I was talking about is the forecast cloud amounts, show broken rather the overcast. A clear hint in my eyes that the nature of the band will be broken to some extent, I imagine further south near Birmingham we will see a few forecasts of "OVC" rather than "BKN".

I know it's forecast to come into the area, but I don't think it is worth a warning in my opinion

[NorthWest_Snow]

why do you guys insist on using the inaccurate gfs? wasnt the last slap on monday enough evidenc it is so inaccurate for NW. close range please do me a favour. It cant even predict to 6 hours out let alone longer than that. lol We have a very peculiar setup in the nw. micro climate or not.

I think some people are reying too much on a system that simply cant predict for the nw and taking conclusions from it.

For what it's worth i cant see any of that snow missing us..the entire country will be under it..apart from liverpool and the north west? lolol

mind you its a barmy day outside at 4.3C wheres the sun tan lotion? though seriously I am hoping the colder air actually undercuts a way ahead of that snow on the radar to the north, lots of it up there heading south

Edited February 4, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Weather-history]

why do you guys insist on using the inaccurate gfs? wasnt the last slap on monday enough evidenc it is so inaccurate for NW. close range please do me a favour. It cant even predict to 6 hours out let alone longer than that.

I'm sorry but I don't agree with that as regards to Monday. GFS precipt charts were a lot more accurate than the Met office ones. The Met Office ones had much of NW England preciptation free for Monday night whilst GFS had preciptatipon for this area.

[louloulou1964]

BBC just showed gallons of snow for wirral tonight and tomoorow..they say the band will not be moving fast.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

WOW BBC really ramping it up for the NW of England tomorrow although the further west you are i think it will become very marginal in terms of temp and precipitation.Alex shows the band breaking up west of manchester.

[weatherobsuk]

From what I believe this front is going to be stalling slap-bang over the region, continuous moisture being fed southerly into it as it collides with the northerly airmass coming down from Scotland. Its not going to be going anywhere for 48 hours from Thursday night and I wouldnt be too surprised to see some significant snow totals from this, more so than London saw on Monday.

Temperatures are favourable for anywhere over 100 meters to see snowfall, but with evaporative cooling just about anywhere will see snowfall out of this.

[louloulou1964]

hooray I would love to get more than the south...they have everything even the attention of the news readers(most of the time).They only report for Liverpool when its something bad...Never the weather

[Roady]

theres no chance we in the north west will get anywhere near the amount that london got.forget about it.And I love snow as much as the next person.

[SP1986]

hooray I would love to get more than the south...they have everything even the attention of the news readers(most of the time).They only report for Liverpool when its something bad...Never the weather

Thats very true Liverpool rarely gets a mention but that's because Liverpool rarely gets much snow really

I suppose there is a chance if the front stalls it could give some appreciable amounts to higher parts of the Wirral; ie Caldy, Heswall, Thurstaston Hill

[louloulou1964]

I know...but with global warming you never can tell....you dont have a crystal ball.. not trying to rude by the way!!!!!

And I would also like to add...that the weather front they are showing sort of ...swoops its way into the north west...so who is to say it wont do the full lenght of the beautiful Wirral my friend...goes without saying it could be that small ball type of snow.....Do you know what I mean(it looks like hail).

[Roady]

does anyone have a link to this latest weather forecast please? just looked on bbc i player but they only have last nights. I want the snow as much as anyone,link would be appreciated cheers