Snow Watch: North West England

[louloulou1964]

Right well Im off to do the school run...and you can carry on with your techincal talk...which I dont have a clue about.By the way Mr SP I used to live in thesaloniki(greece is beautiful too but I prefer Cyprus. poli !!!!!

[SP1986]

I know...but with global warming you never can tell....you dont have a crystal ball.. not trying to rude by the way!!!!!

And I would also like to add...that the weather front they are showing sort of ...swoops its way into the north west...so who is to say it wont do the full lenght of the beautiful Wirral my friend...goes without saying it could be that small ball type of snow.....Do you know what I mean(it looks like hail).

I imagine all parts of the Wirral would get a covering except Birkenhead and Leasowe/Moreton/Wallasey and Hilbre Island if this came through, but where those lower areas might get 1-3cm, Caldy, Thurstaston etc may get 5cm.

Who knows, like you say crystal ball

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Difficult to estimate snow depths as it stands but i think storm animal and james could well see another 5 to 10cm tomorrow morning.

If the system fragments it could end up as 1 or 2 cm dusting but the bbc graphics showed no break up but its a nowcast,this may happen but then again it could intensify as it hits the southern pennines and explode over us.

I still say the west of this region will see little or any lying snow however.

[weatherobsuk]

theres no chance we in the north west will get anywhere near the amount that london got.forget about it.And I love snow as much as the next person.

Been to the top of Saddleworth Moor recently? I'd guarantee it would have matched the depth of Londons snowfall. The only difference being is that it didnt affect anyone except hillwalkers and the odd moorland road, hardly national news which is why nobody cared.

But a couple of inches grinds London to a standstill and anything outside the M25 doesnt exist news-wise after that.

[Roady]

mate i was generally refering to lower levels though.ive no doubt the moors done very well.what im saying is lower lying levels wont do as well as london in general.I was in st albans on monday and they had just on a foot of lying snow at low levels.That will not happen in the north west region at low levels.No doubt it may have and may d so again on the mooors hills,mountains etc

[karyo]

I'm sorry but I don't agree with that as regards to Monday. GFS precipt charts were a lot more accurate than the Met office ones. The Met Office ones had much of NW England preciptation free for Monday night whilst GFS had preciptatipon for this area.

I totally agree with you on this. The GFS precipitation prediction was a lot closer to the mark than the met office. The bbc forecasts didn't even mention the word 'northwest' until it started snowing!

Regarding tomorrow, i am glad the latest model output has moved the band of precipitation further north to eventually affect us tomorrow. I think the heavier falls will be around the midlands but likely to turn to rain there. At least we have a better chance to have it as snow throughout.

My only worry is that this band may be quite broken when it reaches here, after travelling over land for many hours.

I hope we get a clear night ahead of it with a frost (unlike last night) to aid settling tomorrow. The temperature today is a lot higher than forecast!

Karyo

[Maz]

Lets keep expectations realistic.

All the models, upto 00z last night showed the front stalling to our South. Models currently showing it edging into the NW, and maybe stalling. Who is to say whether the models are now correct, whether it will push into Southern Scotland leaving us rain, or stall when it hits Mid Wales and West Mids. Or stalling over us and disintigrating as the energy transfers elsewhere.

All down to nowcasting as the band moves north, and the front over Scotland moves south to join it...

These "battlegrounds" are always difficult to forecast.

Edited February 4, 2009 by Maz

[dodge]

Quite surprised at how far north they have forcasted the band of snow to affect. Looking like parts of the North West will see at least a period of falling snow for tomorrow. Still got lying patches on snow on my street, and lots on grassy areas. I don't have to go to work tomorrow too, so no rushhour nightmare to go through.

[NorthWest_Snow]

Quite surprised at how far north they have forcasted the band of snow to affect. Looking like parts of the North West will see at least a period of falling snow for tomorrow. Still got lying patches on snow on my street, and lots on grassy areas. I don't have to go to work tomorrow too, so no rushhour nightmare to go through.

i am quite surprised at how warm it is actually..5.6C and rising? more like river floods if anything :

actually think of rain you wont go wrong to be honest... liverpool is the only city in the entire country that gets rain while it buckets down with snow else where, so i am not remotely optimistic, nice setup shame we will get nothing if those models are to believed.

Edited February 4, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[snowingtequila]

theres no chance we in the north west will get anywhere near the amount that london got.forget about it.And I love snow as much as the next person.

Been to the top of Saddleworth Moor recently? I'd guarantee it would have matched the depth of Londons snowfall. The only difference being is that it didnt affect anyone except hillwalkers and the odd moorland road, hardly national news which is why nobody cared.

But a couple of inches grinds London to a standstill and anything outside the M25 doesnt exist news-wise after that.

Strange as it may seem some people on here live in such peculiar places as hilly areas. I live close to the hills and got 8inches of snow, been melting fast today though temp. up to 4C still 2-3 inches cover left though despite the thaw.

[Roady]

some places in and around liverpl got near on four inches mate the other day.i dont expect much from this new lot like but a slight dusting is very possible,and an inch or two in favoured places.

Strange as it may seem some people on here live in such peculiar places as hilly areas. I live close to the hills and got 8inches of snow, been melting fast today though temp. up to 4C still 2-3 inches cover left though despite the thaw.

thats not strange mate, see my other post,i was just saying low lying areas in the nw wont do as well as London.low lying areas of london got 12 inches mate.that wont happen up here in low areas.

[snowingtequila]

some places in and around liverpl got near on four inches mate the other day.i dont expect much from this new lot like but a slight dusting is very possible,and an inch or two in favoured places.

thats not strange mate, see my other post,i was just saying low lying areas in the nw wont do as well as London.low lying areas of london got 12 inches mate.that wont happen up here in low areas.

It won't tomorrow, you are right, without a mild sector it could have happened on Monday night. It has happened before but not for a very long time, 1979 saw over a foot of level snow over low lying areas of cheshire. Falls of a foot used to be more common in the hillier areas but seem less common now, certainly less long lasting. I can hope though!

[cheshire cat]

Well it has improved since Monday night and finally seems to be firming up for a good few hours of snow.

Again as you say we'lll have to watch the mild sector if one transires.

Nowcasting again Thurs night on the radar sites.

Sounds like 79 was something to behold!

Edited February 4, 2009 by cheshire cat

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Latest bbc forecast has the snow reaching manchester and then fizzling out through the morning tomorrow.

Those to the north and west of manchester may well miss out if that forecast holds true.

[karyo]

Another upgrade from the 12z in terms of the precipitation. In fact, little by little, the models have moved the band over us and it seems that we might even be on the firing line.

Upper temperatures aound -4 to -5 will be enough for snow with not much modification (luck of strong winds) and evaporative cooling if the precipitation is continuous and heavy enough.

Our region has experienced higher temperatures today than forecast but this is due to the largely cloudy night we've had and then sunshine by day. Skies are clear now and should remain for the first part of the night at least so this time we should see subzero temperatures.

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hmmmm updated FAX are a downgrade for the region.The low is further east so the snow may push more NE and miss us all together!!

ARRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHH

[chrisbooth0070]

Yes the temps are dropping away rapidly - currently 1.7c / hour.

I hit a max of 5.6c today - currently 2.1c

[snowingtequila]

Seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the precip tomorrow. My first concern is just to get the temperature down as quick as possible after todays 'heat' then we stand a chance of it being snow if it does arrive. I am not too worried about the fax charts and bbc forecast as they showed it missing me on Monday night and the GFS data got it pretty muchb spot on despite people's grunmbling about it.

What I find interesting is every forecast I can find on the net shows snow for me tomorrow for most of the day, heavy for a time. Only the netweather forecast shows a day of heavy sleet for me. Hmmm.

Edited February 4, 2009 by snowingtequila

[Spurry]

WOW just looked at the charts/bbc/metcheck and it looks like we may get some tomorrow, i wasn't really expecting any ,but i think we're due a dumping...but no doubt i'll open the curtains tomorrow morning and see.........................................................................gree

n grass and a bit of rain

Edited February 4, 2009 by Spurry

[Weather-history]

Hmmmm updated FAX are a downgrade for the region.The low is further east so the snow may push more NE and miss us all together!!

ARRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHH

The only notable difference I can see is that the front to the north is further north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Edited February 4, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The only notable difference I can see is that the front to the north is further north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

sorry mr data that latest FAX does not indicate snow for the NW to me,the one earlier was better.

maybe the front might reach east cheshire south manc before ot fizzles,we'll see

[cheshire snow]

Good Evening All

Have to Say ATM According to the UKMO Hourly updates my location in South Cheshire

Looks good for Thurs/Fri with Heavy Snow Symbols at various times

Looking at things i think the Heavier Snow will be in a rought Triangle from

Stoke over to Chester And through Cheshire.I do think Manchester will see Snow

But a bit Lighter than above Areas.This will then transfer over to the East of the

Region.Just the way I See ATM but of course all subject to change.I hope we all see

Snow,and in the next 48hrs i think we will all see something.

[James M]

sorry mr data that latest FAX does not indicate snow for the NW to me,the one earlier was better.

maybe the front might reach east cheshire south manc before ot fizzles,we'll see

I might be reading things wrong, but the front with most of the precip, heading up from the south looks to be in almost exactly the same position perhaps even slightly further north, so it looks alright to me?

Edited February 4, 2009 by James M

[cheshire snow]

I might be reading things wrong, but the front with most of the precip, heading up from the south looks to be in almost exactly the same position perhaps even slightly further north, so it looks alright to me?

Exactly LoL

[Chris Henderson]

Hi everyone, what chance do you think for my son in Kendal by way of snow over the next couple of days please? Some people are suggesting a lot while others are hinting that the snow will miss us altogether. I will endeavour to learn a bit about how to read the various charts, but at the moment just confused. Many thanks. Regards.