Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

[jright35]

evening all from ice rink Braintree

had a partial thaw but still lots and lots of snow here and the partial thaw from last night made the whole place one huge ice rink all day.looks like it may all freeze again tonight.

watching on with interest for thurs/fri/sat i see lots of mentions of the s/e and Suffolk /Norfolk ect and im wondering if this happens is Essex likely to get any more.

i know its to early to be firm on this just wondered if you had opinions on this??

well if it snows u will get it.Looks like it will be rain at the moment though!!

[Paul Sherman]

Absolutely Amazing temp diffs on my drive home just now. Left London where it is below freezing, got to Upminster and -3c with roads that are lethal, by the time I have just driver 20 miles to Leigh On Sea the Temp is +2c - That is the most amazing temp diff I have ever seen Winter or Summer over such a short distance, the Cold Uppers are still way West of Here.

Also not liking the latest UKMO Fax Charts now for the end of the week, UKMO Has sided with the GFS with regards to this upcoming spell for our area, I would expect the Oranges to slowly dissappear over the next 36 hours if this continues, have not looked at ECMWF Yet but will take a quick gander as they were still showing a favourable scenario earlier.

GFS Was appalling in positioning the last Cold Pool whereas ECMWF & UKMO Were pretty much spot on......................BUT

GFS Nailed the Warm Sector running up the East Coast last night and outshon both the UKMO & ECMWF

All to play for but 2 to 1 against at this stage and as Steve M says anything will be a bonus now.

Paul S

[ChartViewer]

All to play for but 2 to 1 against at this stage and as Steve M says anything will be a bonus now.

Paul S

Paul,

Spot on. I work in Central London and live in Excel East London and the temps have really been on the low side since Sunday night. For Excel to have packed ice on side streets tonight is remarkable 36 hours after the event!

As for Thursday through Saturday Ia m siding with you on this......We are in 538 dam air and no way are London and South going to get snow unless models change...However T0 is the watching model of choice!!!!

Regards

CV

[tinybill]

well news 24 weather are worried for Thursday looks like we are in for a hit again so its All stop again , old saying here in Suffolk if the first lot hangs about its waiting for the next lot!!!!!!!!

[maidstone weather]

well news 24 weather are worried for Thursday looks like we are in for a hit again so its All stop again , old saying here in Suffolk if the first lot hangs about its waiting for the next lot!!!!!!!!

yes, someone told me that lore earlier Putting simply, if it's still around, then it's cold enough should more come along...

[Vesuvius]

well news 24 weather are worried for Thursday looks like we are in for a hit again so its All stop again , old saying here in Suffolk if the first lot hangs about its waiting for the next lot!!!!!!!!

Recent BBC forecasts seem to be pointing to Rain with all the white stuff to the west and north west of London

[tinybill]

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

These advisories are issued by 1100 daily as routine and indicate confidence of expected severe or extreme weather. Early warnings and Flash Warnings supersede advisories when confidence levels are 60% or greater.

Risk of disruption

Warning

Valid

UK regions: <A title="Regional detail for Central, Tayside & Fife" href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html">Central, Tayside & Fife Grampian Highlands & Eilean SiarHeavy SnowWed 4 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting many parts of Scotland. Further snow is likely in places, more particularly over higher ground where further significant accumulations are possible.

Issued at: 1350 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowThu 5 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting parts of Wales and the southern half of England. Further snow spreading from the south may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5 to 10cm locally. Drifting could occur in strengthening northeasterly winds.

Issued at: 1132 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowThu 5 FebThere is a low risk of an exceptionally severe event affecting parts of Wales and central England. There is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow giving accumulations of 10 to 20cm, with drifting possible in strengthening northeasterly winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1148 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy Snow & Drifting SnowFri 6 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe event continuing to affect parts of southern and eastern England. Further falls of snow are likely that may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5-10cm locally. Drifting could occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds.

Issued at: 1202 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England London & South East EnglandDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowFri 6 FebThere is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow across parts of central and southeastern England continuing from Thursday giving further accumulations, with perhaps more than 25cm locally for the whole event. Drifting may occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued on the web as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1207 Tue 3 Feb

all i say is stay in bed friday!!!!!!!!!!!!

[honey*]

im just greedy and want more lol

fingers crossed for snow not rain ,i will lurk with intent to see what you serious weather folks come up with so far ive been very impressed as to how spot on you have been.

[PB22]

well news 24 weather are worried for Thursday looks like we are in for a hit again so its All stop again , old saying here in Suffolk if the first lot hangs about its waiting for the next lot!!!!!!!!

My first lot (1cm) didn't even last 24 hours, so I'm not optimistic for my location! :lol:

Very hard to call this Thursday/Friday situation. I would say the Midlands are favoured, with the southeast and East Anglia seeing mostly rain until late Friday.

[Vesuvius]

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

These advisories are issued by 1100 daily as routine and indicate confidence of expected severe or extreme weather. Early warnings and Flash Warnings supersede advisories when confidence levels are 60% or greater.

Risk of disruption

Warning

Valid

UK regions: <A title="Regional detail for Central, Tayside & Fife" href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html">Central, Tayside & Fife Grampian Highlands & Eilean SiarHeavy SnowWed 4 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting many parts of Scotland. Further snow is likely in places, more particularly over higher ground where further significant accumulations are possible.

Issued at: 1350 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowThu 5 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting parts of Wales and the southern half of England. Further snow spreading from the south may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5 to 10cm locally. Drifting could occur in strengthening northeasterly winds.

Issued at: 1132 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowThu 5 FebThere is a low risk of an exceptionally severe event affecting parts of Wales and central England. There is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow giving accumulations of 10 to 20cm, with drifting possible in strengthening northeasterly winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1148 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy Snow & Drifting SnowFri 6 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe event continuing to affect parts of southern and eastern England. Further falls of snow are likely that may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5-10cm locally. Drifting could occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds.

Issued at: 1202 Tue 3 Feb

UK regions: East of England London & South East EnglandDrifting Snow & Heavy SnowFri 6 FebThere is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow across parts of central and southeastern England continuing from Thursday giving further accumulations, with perhaps more than 25cm locally for the whole event. Drifting may occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued on the web as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1207 Tue 3 Feb

all i say is stay in bed friday!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope so but think this was based on the morning models ie 06Z - recent models are going against us.

Edited February 3, 2009 by Vesuvius

[A Wintry Mix]

Good evening, well i have no need to worry about if it will snow or not over the next few days,

given my location its a safe bet to say we will stay snowless!

[Paul Sherman]

Yes

Tinybill that output was based on earlier Model runs and the UKMO Has sided with the GFS On its later run so expect all those warnings to possibly come down in the next 24-36 hours and/or be shifted North-Westwards. Channel Lows are ridiculously hard to Model if not impossible right up to T12, I am still seeing it like I did this Morning and going with Paul B on YES We will see some Snow but expect it Friday into Saturday and Not a lot of it to make any real serious impact.

Paul S

[donna-m]

on the met office essex forecast for thursday - sat,, it mentions risk of coastal snow showers?? why?? snowing right near the coast is usually more marginal, most of the time it usually reads snow except coastal areas??

[Vesuvius]

on the met office essex forecast for thursday - sat,, it mentions risk of coastal snow showers?? why?? snowing right near the coast is usually more marginal, most of the time it usually reads snow except coastal areas??

From what I can gather the models this morning were pointing to pretty serious snow for us in Essex but have since backtracked and now we look like getting rain. Unless things change I presume the MetO will amend their warnings

[maidstone weather]

Just noticed the Met Office have updated their symbols at 7pm.

Heavy snow shower for London westwards, rain in the SE tomorrow night. Rain for London & the SE on Thursday, but heavy snow on Thurs night?

Same holds true for E Anglia, sleet on Wed night, snow in the W of the region on Thurs, rain in east but heavy snow in most parts overnight. Most odd.

At that stage, looks like the METO wants the front in a line from SW England to the Wash eastwards for Thu, W Mids look dry!

Edited February 3, 2009 by maidstone weather

[donna-m]

From what I can gather the models this morning were pointing to pretty serious snow for us in Essex but have since backtracked and now we look like getting rain. Unless things change I presume the MetO will amend their warnings

reading through the model thread i agree, lets hope the overnight / morning models change increasing our chances ,and metO keep the warnings there, i'm not greedy for snow but would like to see my kids able to make a snowman

[LLWA]

Evening all just a word on thursday and fridays snow event down here its still looking good i expect this to still take effect but at the moment the models are haveing difficulty in pin pointing the low and the positioning off it but expect the firm up tommrow afternoon. Now pictures you have all been mailing me for here they are enjoy.

Edited February 3, 2009 by LLWA

[Southender]

Yes

Tinybill that output was based on earlier Model runs and the UKMO Has sided with the GFS On its later run so expect all those warnings to possibly come down in the next 24-36 hours and/or be shifted North-Westwards. Channel Lows are ridiculously hard to Model if not impossible right up to T12, I am still seeing it like I did this Morning and going with Paul B on YES We will see some Snow but expect it Friday into Saturday and Not a lot of it to make any real serious impact.

Paul S

Oh dear.

Another let down for SE Essex. :lol:

Still, theres plenty of time left in winter yet...

On to the next event (or not) :lol:

[clark3r]

Evening all just a word on thursday and fridays snow event down here its still looking good i expect this to still take effect but at the moment the models are haveing difficulty in pin pointing the low and the positioning off it but expect the firm up tommrow afternoon. Now pictures you have all been mailing me for here they are enjoy.

[/quote

i think the models will firm up for thurs tommorow! but think it will be very wet for southern areas! as for fri who knows but i cant see the south east getting snow! best chance is the further north west!

[Vesuvius]

reading through the model thread i agree, lets hope the overnight / morning models change increasing our chances ,and metO keep the warnings there, i'm not greedy for snow but would like to see my kids able to make a snowman

Agree. This sounds weird but I either want a real dumping or heavy rain to wash away all this ice. Just a few inches on top of the ice will not be good

[i luv snow]

Oh dear.

Another let down for SE Essex. :lol:

Still, theres plenty of time left in winter yet...

On to the next event (or not) :lol:

how can you call something that hasnt happened yet a non-event? NO ONE knows whats going to happen...yet...the next run might or might not be different..wont know until tomorrow...I think one or two people may be surprised

[maidstone weather]

I'm going to stay optimistic, even though deep down I can't see this happening. The GFS has a good reputation of shunting things eastwards, whether it be Arctic blasts or continental storms, and i will hold onto the hope that the GFS shunts it all back east again for tomorrow

[danm]

the 18z is out soon. lets see what that shows

[dogs32]

SKY news as the snow more wide spread than BBC....Infact most of there chart was covered with snow...

From East to West...

Wilson made the forecast

[maidstone weather]

SKY news as the snow more wide spread than BBC....Infact most of there chart was covered with snow...

From East to West...

Wilson made the forecast

your last line says it all! :o :ph34r:

Sounds promising though - i haven't seen the ITV take on it yet?