Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

[danm]

SKY news as the snow more wide spread than BBC....Infact most of there chart was covered with snow...

From East to West...

Wilson made the forecast

wouldnt pay too much attention to the details on sky news weather. their graphics are very sketchy.

[dogs32]

your last line says it all! :o :ph34r:

Sounds promising though - i haven't seen the ITV take on it yet?

no dont watch the ITV one they will probably tell you your going to get 5 ft :o

In all fairness Wilson sometimes gets it correct......Infact the only bad news is he said its going to keep switching backwards and forwards from rain and snow..

[clark3r]

no dont watch the ITV one they will probably tell you your going to get 5 ft :ph34r:

In all fairness Wilson sometimes gets it correct......Infact the only bad news is he said its going to keep switching backwards and forwards from rain and snow..

imagine if we do get another 15 - 30 cm in the south east that will be well good after 20 years!

[maidstone weather]

what time(s) is Sky Weather on?

[Southender]

:ph34r: :o :o

how can you call something that hasnt happened yet a non-event? NO ONE knows whats going to happen...yet...the next run might or might not be different..wont know until tomorrow...I think one or two people may be surprised

Ok maybe calling it a non-event is a bit premature.

I just hope this winter will be better, in terms of snow amounts, to all the others (for our small area of SE Essex anyway) Seems like we miss all the fun, time and time again, whilst places mere miles from here, continue to get pasted. For instance, places like Basildon (12 miles) had around 10cm and Upminster (20 miles) had about 18cm of lying snow yesterday. Whilst we had about 3cm!

I'm sure Paul S knows where I'm coming from...

Anyway, lets hope for a major shift and we finally get a pasting here in SE Essex!

Fingers crossed, plenty of winter time left yet.

Edited February 3, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[dogs32]

what time(s) is Sky Weather on?

maybe now......go and read Nicks post...interesting events this week....24/36 snow poss for some

[Tom D]

-2.2c here, the thawed snow has frozen solid and it's rather slippery on the pavements. Cars snow-free are now coated in frost. In places the snow is still 10cm thick.

There's a link to my photos below in my signature :ph34r:

Edited February 3, 2009 by Tommyd1258

[donna-m]

Anyway, lets hope for a major shift and we finally get a pasting here in SE Essex!

Fingers crossed, plenty of winter time left yet.

please include NE Essex , i got 1cm in morning and washed away in rain 2 hours later :o

[Paul Sherman]

Agree. This sounds weird but I either want a real dumping or heavy rain to wash away all this ice. Just a few inches on top of the ice will not be good

I have to agree with this - I really want Rain at the moment to wash away an appalling mix of Crunchy Snow and slabs of ice, our road is dreadfull with bits of ice rock solid, people have cleared their paths and bit of Ice are sticking up all over the place like jagged glass, back garden still holds 2cm but this is frozen solid also, so would not mind some rain to clear the canvass again :o

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

everything's been shifted further NE with this run - however, the 'snow risk' is about 10% less than the last run - if we can't have any snow why should those in the west :o

[Paul Sherman]

Ok maybe calling it a non-event is a bit premature.

I just hope this winter will be better, in terms of snow amounts, to all the others (for our small area of SE Essex anyway) Seems like we miss all the fun, time and time again, whilst places mere miles from here, continue to get pasted. For instance, places like Basildon (12 miles) had around 10cm and Upminster (20 miles) had about 18cm of lying snow yesterday. Whilst we had about 3cm!

I'm sure Paul S knows where I'm coming from...

Anyway, lets hope for a major shift and we finally get a pasting here in SE Essex!

Fingers crossed, plenty of winter time left yet.

Interestingly I am putting together a Case Study of why the Thames Streamer failed for our area and Areas of Coastal Kent all the way up to Suffolk.

But yes we have not done so well for Snow this year and from Nick F, latest blog we aint gonna do well over the next 4 days as well :o In fact we seem to be in the worst possible part of the country for snow

Paul S

[i luv snow]

Yuk, Bad run, although completely different from the last one...no one does particularly well. Im gonna drop it until tomorrow!

[PB22]

Interestingly I am putting together a Case Study of why the Thames Streamer failed for our area and Areas of Coastal Kent all the way up to Suffolk.

But yes we have not done so well for Snow this year and from Nick F, latest blog we aint gonna do well over the next 4 days as well :o In fact we seem to be in the worst possible part of the country for snow

Paul S

I look forward to your findings Paul. I too will be trying to work out what went on and why places 10 miles to my west got triple the amount of snow I did.

With regards to the end of the week...I really wouldn't get your hopes up too high at the moment people.

[Button Up]

Interestingly I am putting together a Case Study of why the Thames Streamer failed for our area and Areas of Coastal Kent all the way up to Suffolk.

But yes we have not done so well for Snow this year and from Nick F, latest blog we aint gonna do well over the next 4 days as well :o In fact we seem to be in the worst possible part of the country for snow

Paul S

Hi Paul, i will be interested to read that when you have it prepared as we were so badly let down when everything was in place to deliver as it has done in the past but then failed.Over the years that setup has been fantastic it has unloaded as it reached the coast only going a few miles inland before fizzling out but this time the exact opposite!! I look forward to reading your findings

Regards BU

[Timmytour]

It seemed so promising for a great thursday/friday earlier today....

I remain sceptical about Wed Night into Thursday but Friday.............Dare I say is nearly nailed on for Snow, why dont you think there will be any Snow Friday when all Models are in agreement and has good Ensemble Support ??

What are you seeing different about Friday that all the organisations are not

Cheers

Paul S

...but less than an hour later the story was a little different!

No disrespect at all to Paul S...indeed it goes to show how even the most respectable of weather watchers have to refine even short term forecasts in this kind of situation on an almost hourly basis.

I've seen it said that in this kind of situation lows generally track further south than the models predict..but in my experience they track in any direction to avoid bringing snow to my area when it's been forecast!

I'm hoping for yet another late change to swing it in my favour. I shouldn't be greedy what with all the snow I saw on sunday through monday. But what a weekend for my kids to be away and unable to get back! They'll still, I hope, see the undisturbed snow in the back garden, when they come home tomorrow, but there's been a fair amount of thawing taking place and the snow is not of the depth and quality it was on monday morning...nor is it any longer piled up on every branch and every bush for that real magic winterland look.

Getting nicely caught on the snowing side of a prolonged battleground eventually won by the colder air over the next few days would be absolutely fantastic....not for me you understand...I'm only thinking of the kids!! :o

[Southernman]

It's been clear skies and sunshine south of Chichester all day. Although 30 miles to the west , Southampton, and also the Isle of wight ,had heavy falls I hear.

[Paul Sherman]

Absolutely Amazing temp diffs on my drive home just now. Left London where it is below freezing, got to Upminster and -3c with roads that are lethal, by the time I have just driver 20 miles to Leigh On Sea the Temp is +2c - That is the most amazing temp diff I have ever seen Winter or Summer over such a short distance, the Cold Uppers are still way West of Here.

Also not liking the latest UKMO Fax Charts now for the end of the week, UKMO Has sided with the GFS with regards to this upcoming spell for our area, I would expect the Oranges to slowly dissappear over the next 36 hours if this continues, have not looked at ECMWF Yet but will take a quick gander as they were still showing a favourable scenario earlier.

GFS Was appalling in positioning the last Cold Pool whereas ECMWF & UKMO Were pretty much spot on......................BUT

GFS Nailed the Warm Sector running up the East Coast last night and outshon both the UKMO & ECMWF

All to play for but 2 to 1 against at this stage and as Steve M says anything will be a bonus now.

Paul S

Timmy have just been calling it from the Models thats all, The Channel Low scenario is one of the hardest Set-Ups to Model and can still change down to T12, Even the slightest shift in track could see 1 place either getting Snow or Rain, It is that finely balanced not like the Cold Pool that came over on Sunday (Eg everything that fell was going to be Snow)

My gut feeling 1st thing this morning was for the Rain for all of Thursday turning to back edge Snow for a few hours over Friday/Saturday and I was somewhat surprised to see the Meto Outlook, there is a post if you can find it somewhere in the debris.

Gut feeling tells me we are NOT Going to see an Epic event but places further North-West could be making the News Headlines later this week

I will post a full detailed Post on why the Streamer delivered for Some and Others got left out in a few days, but what i am finding out so far is VERY Interesting.

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

New BBC graphics yet again shows no snow for the SE of London, even Devon/Somerset has snow on their graphics. Current snow showers in CS Eng at the mo will head into Gloucs and the W Midlands tonight

[Paul Sherman]

Latest BBCi Player forecast from Sir Rob on the BBC Site looking great for Oxfordshire and the Midlands across to Cambs and East Midlands, Rain for all to the South East of this, grim day on Thursday and Friday with heavy Rain, but Substantial Falls likely (He Said) for those areas above Highlighted.

So expect the UKMO Site to remove the Orange Warnings from London and the South East pretty sharpish now.

Areas that look likely to have really missed out for all 3 events now looks like Kent, E Essex, E Suffolk and Norfolk, which is amazing as these are usually the 4 most prone to Wintry and Snowy Weather. :blush:

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

Got this email from the Met Office, which doesn't really say anything new, except that the warnings are only for the SW on Thursday?

At this time we have low risk warnings in place for some areas of the south west for Thursday and Moderate risk warnings in place for Friday you can view these at Met Office: UK: severe weather warnings . We continue to monitor the situation and warnings will be dated if the situation changes.

[danm]

Latest BBCi Player forecast from Sir Rob on the BBC Site looking great for Oxfordshire and the Midlands across to Cambs and East Midlands, Rain for all to the South East of this, grim day on Thursday and Friday with heavy Rain, but Substantial Falls likely (He Said) for those areas above Highlighted.

So expect the UKMO Site to remove the Orange Warnings from London and the South East pretty sharpish now.

Areas that look likely to have really missed out for all 3 events now looks like Kent, E Essex, E Suffolk and Norfolk, which is amazing as these are usually the 4 most prone to Wintry and Snowy Weather. :blush:

Paul S

bbc london weather had a watch/warning for potential heavy snow. even though the last few model runs show the low further north, it was only 8 or 9 hours ago that we looked like getting a potential dumping. so it could all change again by this time tomorrow. if it shifts 100 miles further south it will all be quite different. thats a big if however

[Hammer]

Paul do you think the Met Office over reacted with the warnings for London etc for Thursday based on not wanting to be seen to get caught out. They have previously not made warnings unless they had a bit more confidence. Seems like at midday they made the warning, only for a few hours later with new fax charts available making it look like their own warnings were well OTT. That is a slightly dissapointing few hours by the Met Office. I think they over reacted.

Latest BBCi Player forecast from Sir Rob on the BBC Site looking great for Oxfordshire and the Midlands across to Cambs and East Midlands, Rain for all to the South East of this, grim day on Thursday and Friday with heavy Rain, but Substantial Falls likely (He Said) for those areas above Highlighted.

So expect the UKMO Site to remove the Orange Warnings from London and the South East pretty sharpish now.

Areas that look likely to have really missed out for all 3 events now looks like Kent, E Essex, E Suffolk and Norfolk, which is amazing as these are usually the 4 most prone to Wintry and Snowy Weather. :blush:

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

When I first saw the warnings at 1205pm I think, Well I nearly fell over, to me a Warm front with marginal 0c Isotherm etc moving North from the South Screamed of Rain, but the Meto had and still has I Think a Moderate Risk of 10cm Locally for Thursday for the Shaded areas for the Snow area moving North - See Below Link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=3

Most Models and Tv Forecasts have this area way to the North and West

I also think Friday will also be a Rainy grim day down to the South East of the Boundary But again the Meto go with a Low risk of an Exceptional Snow Event for 25cm - Again all model data and Tv Forecasts go against this - I can see why people are banging their heads against the wall but also see how much of a Mare this situation is going to be to Model accurately

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=4

We just have to wait and see until tomorrow evening to see how the Low Pressure acts and how far North it gets.

Paul S

[fatyido]

Rob Mcelwee on the bbc news24 still says that wed night into Thurs , due the the area of rain moving north into cold air and over cold ground it will fall as snow, and the graphics show a large area of white of central and east anglia, and he also added that this period of snow could be 'substantial'. check it out.

Any thoughts ?

[Hammer]

They issued the warnings at 12.05 as you say but surely if they had just held off for a few hours and looked at new data they themselves were producing it may not have been required. The BBC News forecasts around lunch time, when they are watched by high numbers also showed big snow event over London etc for Thursday. Again a few hours later this changed. Not a good afternoon for either really.

When I first saw the warnings at 1205pm I think, Well I nearly fell over, to me a Warm front with marginal 0c Isotherm etc moving North from the South Screamed of Rain, but the Meto had and still has I Think a Moderate Risk of 10cm Locally for Thursday for the Shaded areas for the Snow area moving North - See Below Link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=3

Most Models and Tv Forecasts have this area way to the North and West

I also think Friday will also be a Rainy grim day down to the South East of the Boundary But again the Meto go with a Low risk of an Exceptional Snow Event for 25cm - Again all model data and Tv Forecasts go against this - I can see why people are banging their heads against the wall but also see how much of a Mare this situation is going to be to Model accurately

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=4

We just have to wait and see until tomorrow evening to see how the Low Pressure acts and how far North it gets.

Paul S