Winter 08-09, How Will It Rank Against Others?

[damianslaw]

Key issue with this winter (so far he says).. is we have not seen any real height rises over Greenland and as some have said it is here where we really need height rises if we are to ensure we remain persistantly locked in cold conditions, also not really seen a sustained easterly neither (we only saw a 36 hour event in early feb), the main reason why we have seen a colder winter has been due to the position of the jet which has been anchored more to the south than normal meaning we have been largely on the 'polar' side so to speak - without any real blocking to the north or east we have not been able to tap into any real cold uppers. Apart from the first week of december we have not seen a northerly neither , in actual fact synoptics have been very marginal for delivering cold its just been that we have been fortunate this year for things to have been on the right side of marginal and that the atlantic has been a relatively weak affair meaning any lows and fronts have become slack in the polar air.

Winter 2005/2006 saw blocking and synoptics of a much better pattern for delivering sustained cold. The arly jan cold spell came courtesy of a high overhead which originally built from the SW, it never tapped into the cold uppers.

[Rob]

Key issue with this winter (so far he says).. is we have not seen any real height rises over Greenland and as some have said it is here where we really need height rises if we are to ensure we remain persistantly locked in cold conditions, also not really seen a sustained easterly neither (we only saw a 36 hour event in early feb), the main reason why we have seen a colder winter has been due to the position of the jet which has been anchored more to the south than normal meaning we have been largely on the 'polar' side so to speak - without any real blocking to the north or east we have not been able to tap into any real cold uppers. Apart from the first week of december we have not seen a northerly neither , in actual fact synoptics have been very marginal for delivering cold its just been that we have been fortunate this year for things to have been on the right side of marginal and that the atlantic has been a relatively weak affair meaning any lows and fronts have become slack in the polar air.

Winter 2005/2006 saw blocking and synoptics of a much better pattern for delivering sustained cold. The arly jan cold spell came courtesy of a high overhead which originally built from the SW, it never tapped into the cold uppers.

very true, regardless of this it has still been a very cold winter, and in terms of where it will rank, i should think it will rank quite well alongside others, the CET has been below average all the way through so far, and with the major snowfall event earlier this month this is definately going to be a winter to remember!

[J10]

Although we had the Hale winter supposedly and the Stratospheric warming event, the lack of northern blocking meant that conditions were not perfect by any means,

As an example 2005-06 had a winter with potent northerlies and better northern blocking, so by this reckoning there is the potential for future winters being colder than this one.

But there still a slight feeling that this could have been an historically good winter rather than just a well above average one.

[tundra]

For me it was a winter that at times promised so much but almost always failed to deliver. December was forcast to be colder with one forcaster on telly saying more chance of snow as we head towards christmas yet the weather actually got milder,did not see one flake of snow throughout the month.

A good sixteen day cold spell from the 26th of Dec to 10th of Jan but most of the cold was inversion cold so know real chance of wintry weather. There was no actual real cold Arctic air over us for more than one day. The rest of the month rather cold zonal weather, how often have we been able to say that about a winter month.

Then February well what with the stratospheric warming from the 18th of Jan expectations were going through the roof and what a great start. Because of the strength of the warming i was not surprised to see its effects being felt just two weeks later. But after 8 days or so it all went wrong rather than the cold strenghening its grip and becoming deeper the weather flipped along with the models to a milder pattern as the warming has not been able to continue its propagation down to the surface.

Wintry weather will return of that i am quite sure but by then we will be into March so as regards to this thread it does not count.

Overall the winter was not bad but was so very nearly much much better.

Outstanding events: not winter i know but...3 and a 1/2 inches of snow on the 28th Oct stayed on the ground for two days.

Snow lying from the 1st of Feb to the 9th.

In a cooling world with -pdo and quite sun i fully expect colder winters to become the norm with a much higher risk of seeing a severe winter in the not to distant future.

[Weather-history]

At the moment until the final February figures are in the period 29th November 2008 - 13th February 2009 had a CET of 2.8

How does that compare to past such periods [ie 29th Nov-13th Feb]? Well here at the CETs and the years

2007-08: 5.9

2006-07: 6.3

2005-06: 4.1

2004-05: 5.8

2003-04: 5.6

2002-03: 5.0

2001-02: 5.4

2000-01: 4.8

1999-00: 5.4

1998-99: 5.3

1997-98: 5.7

1996-97: 3.3

1995-96: 3.1

1994-95: 5.8

1993-94: 5.1

1992-93: 4.8

1991-92: 4.6

1990-91: 2.9

1989-90: 5.9

1988-89: 6.8

1987-88: 5.2

1986-87: 3.7

1985-86: 3.9

1984-85: 3.0

1983-84: 4.8

1982-83: 4.7

1981-82: 2.5

1980-81: 5.1

1979-80: 4.5

1978-79: 1.6

1977-78: 4.1

1976-77: 3.1

1975-76: 5.1

1974-75: 7.0

1973-74: 5.3

1972-73: 5.2

1971-72: 4.9

1970-71: 4.2

1969-70: 3.3

1968-69: 3.8

1967-68: 4.0

1966-67: 5.0

1965-66: 4.1

1964-65: 3.4

1963-64: 3.4

1962-63: -0.1

1961-62: 3.8

1960-61: 4.5

1959-60: 4.9

1958-59: 3.0

1957-58: 3.2

1956-57: 5.8

1955-56: 3.7

1954-55: 4.6

1953-54: 4.2

1952-53: 2.8

1951-52: 3.9

1950-51: 2.9

1949-50: 5.0

1948-49: 5.2

1947-48: 5.5

1946-47: 2.1

1945-46: 4.5

1944-45: 2.9

[Yeti]

Wow! That's still pretty impressive - the 6th coldest period out of all of those years, and the coldest since 81/82.

[Weather-history]

29th November - 13th February CETs

1943-44: 5.5

1942-43: 5.8

1941-42: 2.9

1940-41: 2.4

1939-40: 1.2

1938-39: 4.6

1937-38: 4.7

1936-37: 5.3

1935-36: 3.0

1934-35: 6.2

1933-34: 3.0

1932-33: 4.5

1931-32: 5.2

1930-31: 3.8

1929-30: 5.3

1928-29: 2.5

1927-28: 4.0

1926-27: 3.9

1925-26: 3.9

1924-25: 6.2

1923-24: 4.3

1922-23: 5.9

1921-22: 4.6

1920-21: 4.8

1919-20: 5.3

1918-19: 4.1

1917-18: 4.1

1916-17: 1.2

1915-16: 6.0

1914-15: 4.5

1913-14: 5.2

1912-13: 5.6

1911-12: 4.5

1910-11: 4.5

1909-10: 4.0

1908-09: 3.8

Edited February 19, 2009 by Mr_Data

[reef]

Although we had the Hale winter supposedly and the Stratospheric warming event, the lack of northern blocking meant that conditions were not perfect by any means,

As an example 2005-06 had a winter with potent northerlies and better northern blocking, so by this reckoning there is the potential for future winters being colder than this one.

But there still a slight feeling that this could have been an historically good winter rather than just a well above average one.

Winter 2005/06 actually had no potent northerlies at all. These were almost entirely confined to November and March. The single northerly that did come was on the 17th December, but that was a brief affair. The only snow event of any note was the easterly after christmas, along with a few smaller isolated snow events from easterly flows in January and late February.

The winter was characterised by low heights over Greenland and its lack of northern blocking almost throughout. Nearly all of the cold came from easterly flows and inversions, not too dissimilar from this winter in truth. I just think a lot of areas have been quite lucky this year. Almost all of the snow events have been marginal in nature, which explains why coastal strips did particularly poor and those inland and with a bit of elevation did so well. I dont think in the past it would have been much better as SSTs werent particularly to blame, rather we still cant seem to attain the right synoptics.

In my view, its been more of the same, we havent seen any real signs that anything has changed. Its the old dice analogy from a few years ago:

If you have a dice with 5 red sides (mild) and 1 blue side (cold), before long you'll throw a cold.

The thing is though, despite falling on blue, this winter has still fallen short on many things.

[Timmytour]

Winter 2005/06 actually had no potent northerlies at all. These were almost entirely confined to November and March. The single northerly that did come was on the 17th December, but that was a brief affair. The only snow event of any note was the easterly after christmas, along with a few smaller isolated snow events from easterly flows in January and late February.

The winter was characterised by low heights over Greenland and its lack of northern blocking almost throughout. Nearly all of the cold came from easterly flows and inversions, not too dissimilar from this winter in truth. I just think a lot of areas have been quite lucky this year. Almost all of the snow events have been marginal in nature, which explains why coastal strips did particularly poor and those inland and with a bit of elevation did so well. I dont think in the past it would have been much better as SSTs werent particularly to blame, rather we still cant seem to attain the right synoptics.

In my view, its been more of the same, we havent seen any real signs that anything has changed. Its the old dice analogy from a few years ago:

If you have a dice with 5 red sides (mild) and 1 blue side (cold), before long you'll throw a cold.

The thing is though, despite falling on blue, this winter has still fallen short on many things.

I agree with much of this and have the feeling that while this winter does stand out, actually I feel robbed that we can't regard it more as "the norm" rather than the exception, I certainly think it sticks out a lot more in the noughties than it would have back in the eighties.

That said, when you look at the figures provided by Mr Data (who surely should be elevated to a forum peerage!), you have to be impressed by the fact that, for the timeframe, it's in the bottom 10% of CETs in the last century... something not even 1990-91 can lay claim to!

[cheeky_monkey]

trouble with cets is that only tell you the temps recorded in central england..but not the conditions...you can have a very cold month say sub1c surrounded by two average months and come out with the same result...

many use 1986 as an example with a similar final cet yet which one will be more memorable?..also there are probably lots of winters with higher cets which delivered so much more...nobody ever remembers the cets of winters just the weather events contained within.

[Snowyowl9]

Winter 2005/06 actually had no potent northerlies at all. These were almost entirely confined to November and March.

February 28th was the only potent N-ly.

As memory goes this day was very similar to christmas day 1995 not quite as cold,but better for more heavier snow showers and a blizzard with better drifting to then,something that memory says it`s been great.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060228.gif

[J10]

Winter 2005/06 actually had no potent northerlies at all. These were almost entirely confined to November and March. The single northerly that did come was on the 17th December, but that was a brief affair. The only snow event of any note was the easterly after christmas, along with a few smaller isolated snow events from easterly flows in January and late February.

Well Done for Winning Mr Pedantic of the year award, , There were 2 major Northerlies in the "General winter "period, the first in Late November

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051125.gif

which gave around 4-5 inches of snow here, and this stuck around for quite a few days, and another in Late February Early March so it could be argued in was in the "winter " period which gave 3-4 inches of snow. In any case the "general winter" gave 2 heavy falls of snow.

When there were the major snow events on its extremities of winter at both ends, both due to potent northerlies, I don't agree with your call about the Northerlies, particularly when there has been a real lack of northerlies since then which have delivered certainly for here.

I also disagree quite a lot about your general thoughts about winter with 2004-05 having a very cold end with widespread snow, 2005-6 was good for the reasons I have outlined, 2006-07 despite being disappointing had 1 very snowy event. 2007-8 was a washout, while 2008-9 was not bad at all both in terms of cold and snow, so in the past 5 years there have been t least 3 decent "winters" once, 2 bad ones, and one of these saw heavy snow.

February 28th was the only potent N-ly.

As memory goes this day was very similar to christmas day 1995 not quite as cold,but better for more heavier snow showers and a blizzard with better drifting to then,something that memory says it`s been great.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060228.gif

This chart confirms my point.

[Snowyowl9]

This winter with this month even coming in even at 3.9c will make it the 9th coldest in 40 years beating 1986/87 but I`m getting abit ahead of myself.

Another memorable day from february 2006 colder than that N-ly by over 1c and 2 inches of snow and a great deal of drifting/another blizzard actually with strong winds for 3 hours as the low moved west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060224.gif

Got 1 small drift left from this feb spell, it`ll be gone overnight though.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

I agree with much of this and have the feeling that while this winter does stand out, actually I feel robbed that we can't regard it more as "the norm" rather than the exception, I certainly think it sticks out a lot more in the noughties than it would have back in the eighties.

That said, when you look at the figures provided by Mr Data (who surely should be elevated to a forum peerage!), you have to be impressed by the fact that, for the timeframe, it's in the bottom 10% of CETs in the last century... something not even 1990-91 can lay claim to!

Also the coldest since 81-82!

SP

[Rollo]

How about---"Full of eastern promise!!"

[conor123]

I always class Winter up until the 21st March so far for me its yet to beat 05/06 which gave a large amount of snow events from Late Feb - Mid March.

[Weather-history]

Mr Data (who surely should be elevated to a forum peerage!),

Lol I wouldn't go that far :lol: Although I recently became Mr_Data MNF

A Member of Netweather on Facebook :lol:

[Sleet30031972]

At the moment until the final February figures are in the period 29th November 2008 - 13th February 2009 had a CET of 2.8

How does that compare to past such periods [ie 29th Nov-13th Feb]? Well here at the CETs and the years

2007-08: 5.9

2006-07: 6.3

2005-06: 4.1

2004-05: 5.8

2003-04: 5.6

2002-03: 5.0

2001-02: 5.4

2000-01: 4.8

1999-00: 5.4

1998-99: 5.3

1997-98: 5.7

1996-97: 3.3

1995-96: 3.1

1994-95: 5.8

1993-94: 5.1

1992-93: 4.8

1991-92: 4.6

1990-91: 2.9

1989-90: 5.9

1988-89: 6.8

1987-88: 5.2

1986-87: 3.7

1985-86: 3.9

1984-85: 3.0

1983-84: 4.8

1982-83: 4.7

1981-82: 2.5

1980-81: 5.1

1979-80: 4.5

1978-79: 1.6

1977-78: 4.1

1976-77: 3.1

1975-76: 5.1

1974-75: 7.0

1973-74: 5.3

1972-73: 5.2

1971-72: 4.9

1970-71: 4.2

1969-70: 3.3

1968-69: 3.8

1967-68: 4.0

1966-67: 5.0

1965-66: 4.1

1964-65: 3.4

1963-64: 3.4

1962-63: -0.1

1961-62: 3.8

1960-61: 4.5

1959-60: 4.9

1958-59: 3.0

1957-58: 3.2

1956-57: 5.8

1955-56: 3.7

1954-55: 4.6

1953-54: 4.2

1952-53: 2.8

1951-52: 3.9

1950-51: 2.9

1949-50: 5.0

1948-49: 5.2

1947-48: 5.5

1946-47: 2.1

1945-46: 4.5

1944-45: 2.9

Isn't there a phrase about "lies and damned statistics". I just think this table, whilst no doubt accurate, just shows how misleading statistics can be. As someone who lived through the winters in the 80's, this one supposedly 'beats', i would say in terms of 'events' such as periods of intense cold or heavy snowfall they beat 2008/09 (thus far) hands down.

What this winter has had is a sustained period of quite cold stable weather. No great shakes about that and certainly not a great winter.

[Tucco]

Isn't there a phrase about "lies and damned statistics". I just think this table, whilst no doubt accurate, just shows how misleading statistics can be. As someone who lived through the winters in the 80's, this one supposedly 'beats', i would say in terms of 'events' such as periods of intense cold or heavy snowfall they beat 2008/09 (thus far) hands down.

What this winter has had is a sustained period of quite cold stable weather. No great shakes about that and certainly not a great winter.

The mild last two weeks of Feb will have risen the CET average, it has been a slightly cooler than average winter though. I do agree though the snowfall events have lacked the severity of those in the past, although parts of counrty have done well compared there norm eg the SW.

A few places did see snowfall returns of once in a 20 year event.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited February 24, 2009 by Tucco

[damianslaw]

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see many north western parts of the country to record their deepest fall this March. In fact I'd place money on it...

[Northernlights]

Well for me it has been the winter that finally put nature back on track with bulbs just emerging in the last week instead of in early January as in the last 30 years with 2 very cold spells at the end of December and the begining of February with lows below -10c and several days in each spell with maxes well under 0c. All plant growth was totally stopped by these temperatures something that has not happened in the recent past and hay and silage stocks are running out in the Highland area due to a poor growing summer in 08 and less fertiliser use due to sky high prices. This in my mind guarantees that we will see a cold spring and late onset of grass growth just to add to the shortage of conserved forage and the expense of buying in replacement stocks.

[saperlo]

I hope this winter has been the start of a general trend that will continue.

What we've had so far has been fine but not quite what what was hoped for I think.

[damianslaw]

Taking away the period from about the 12th dec through to 26 dec and the period jan 10 through to about the 23rd and also the period 14th feb through to the 28th feb, then yes a fairly decent winter - but as can been seen from the dates, that equates to roughly only about half of the winter period being wintry... even though in england it has been officially the coldest since 1995/96 it pales in insignificance in my view to that particular winter, only slightly better than 2000/2001 and 2005/06 I say...depending on what March brings it could still I suppose even though officially spring become a little closer to 95/96 in memory stakes but it would take at least a 1 week very cold snowy spell to do just that, 95/96 is still the benchmark winter to surpass ... in my view, well at least for those in Scotland, N Ireland and NW England.

[Peter Henderson]

The winter of 2008/2009 has been a fairly average winter here in Jordanstown.

December: Cold and frosty in the early/middle part of the month. The cold spell at the end of the month (that most other parts of the UK experienced) was just cloudy here, no frost and a tempt. between plus 3 and 5 degrees for over a week, hardly exeptional and very boring/depressing weather.

January: Rather cold and showery. The odd flake of snow on a couple of occasions but it didn't lie. Some frost.

February: Cold the first 10 days with some snow in the latter part of the first week although this did not lie for that long. It was very marginal though, with some parts of NI having several inches and others having nothing at all. The rest of Feb. has been mild and frost free (fairly spring like in fact).

The one notable event of the Autumn was the cold spell at the end of October along with some snow (although it didn't settle here). Something I haven't witnessed in my lifetime and had it occured in the middle of Jan. it would have been bitterly cold.

So, all in all a fairly average winter with really very little snow but quite a lot of frost. Much colder than recent winters though, which have been exeptionally mild. Here's hoping the colder theme will continue (hopefully we'll get a good summer this year) and the seasons become more defined (i.e. dry warm summers and colder winters)

Edited February 25, 2009 by Peter Henderson

[Peter Henderson]

Well for me it has been the winter that finally put nature back on track with bulbs just emerging in the last week instead of in early January as in the last 30 years with 2 very cold spells at the end of December and the begining of February with lows below -10c and several days in each spell with maxes well under 0c. All plant growth was totally stopped by these temperatures something that has not happened in the recent past and hay and silage stocks are running out in the Highland area due to a poor growing summer in 08 and less fertiliser use due to sky high prices. This in my mind guarantees that we will see a cold spring and late onset of grass growth just to add to the shortage of conserved forage and the expense of buying in replacement stocks.

I hope you mean recent winters.

From memory, nothing surpasses the winter of 62/63. In fact, most of the winters of the sixties were cold and snowy. 68/69 was another cold snowy one.. The seventies were mainly very mild apart from 78/79 (the coldest/snowiest since 62/63). The early-mid eighties were also very cold/snowy with 81/82 standing out. The late eighties and most of the nineties have been very mild with little or no snow apart from 95/96 and 98/99. The nougties continued this trend (mild snowless, and frost free winters) although we did have some snowfalls around Christmas 2000/2001 and Christmas 2001/2002. Those early noughties snow events were far better than anything we've experienced this winter.