Snow Watch: North West England

[davehsug]

nothing doing here in Stoke. A few spots of rain in the air & definitely no snow. been the same all evening

[Bartlett Low]

it is a polar low, but looking at it, its still forming, what we want is for that low pressure system to the nw of the uk to feed it, and drag it down to us pronto..they simply dont last long, but they can produce quite a lot of snow.

expect this to grow very quickly good thing is the lp to nw is very close by to it, and to the uk

it has grown again the eye is now more distinctive than last photo

Ummm, could track down over NI / Irish Sea???

[NorthWest_Snow]

Ummm, could track down over NI / Irish Sea???

likely not, gonna be a few factors with that pl, for example whether the lp to nw moves in and drags it down..even so id expect it to fall apart quickly under those conditions..either northern scotland or nw scotland...i just cant see it surviving long enough..i am more than disappointed with upper airs temps tonight. -4 for most of the region. dew points have also been disappointing.

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Ummm, could track down over NI / Irish Sea???

Beeb not paying any attention to it they have forecast 4 degrees and sunny tomorrow and wed.

[snowdrifter]

it is a polar low, but looking at it, its still forming, what we want is for that low pressure system to the nw of the uk to feed it, and drag it down to us pronto..they simply dont last long, but they can produce quite a lot of snow.

expect this to grow very quickly good thing is the lp to nw is very close by to it, and to the uk

it has grown again the eye is now more distinctive than last photo

...and if I'm not mistaken it would die out especially if it got too far inland over Scotland. The best track would be straight down between Scotland and NI. Something to watch.

Edit - read comments since I posted. Seems others had similar hopes but looks like too many factors need to be in place.

Edited February 9, 2009 by snowdrifter

[SP1986]

Definitely a polar low, what a fantastic image, one of the best I've seen in terms textbook.

I cannot tell you how excited I am to see such a well organised polar low.

Unfortunately I'm not sure it will track south over us as I think the Met-office would have picked it up by now.

[dodge]

Well Polar Lows are notoriously difficult to forecast as they tend to happen and produce the goods in a short space of time, but as I said, there was forecasts of Polar Lows a few days ago and they failed to materialise to anything significant.

Edit: Mind you I've just looked at the satelite image above, and this appears to look a hell of a lot more substantial than the one's I saw a few days ago.

Edited February 9, 2009 by dodgeredee

[James M]

We'd have to be incredibly lucky for it to track through the North channel, we can dream though

[NorthWest_Snow]

Definitely a polar low, what a fantastic image, one of the best I've seen in terms textbook.

I cannot tell you how excited I am to see such a well organised polar low.

Unfortunately I'm not sure it will track south over us as I think the Met-office would have picked it up by now.

the only thing to watch out for, is movement in the next couple of hours, and the position of the lp to the nw.

[dodge]

Still occupying the 'hole of inertia' here - nothing out there, no breeze, not sleet, just 'nothing'

I think all the spicy curries, have attributed to a mini-urban heat island effect.

[NorthWest_Snow]

Still occupying the 'hole of inertia' here - nothing out there, no breeze, not sleet, just 'nothing'

I think all the spicy curries, have attributed to a mini-urban heat island effect.

hahaha there you go that explains it all really

[swainclubber]

Still occupying the 'hole of inertia' here - nothing out there, no breeze, not sleet, just 'nothing'

I think all the spicy curries, have attributed to a mini-urban heat island effect.

lol ours is heavy but cant tell what it is its going that fast

[SP1986]

The Polar low will not reach here on second thought. If it has an eye it already at it's mature stage and hasn't moved for a few hours really so this one will die out before reaching mainland UK but will leave snow showers in its wake.

Still raining here, no snow at the moment but it'll be moving away soon anyway

[NorthWest_Snow]

The Polar low will not reach here on second thought. If it has an eye it already at it's mature stage and hasn't moved for a few hours really so this one will die out before reaching mainland UK but will leave snow showers in its wake.

Still raining here, no snow at the moment but it'll be moving away soon anyway

it developed an eye about 3 hours ago, it only just starting to build..we'll have to see sp, if any movement from lp nw will have any influence on pulling it further south..since its still growing meanwhile. not sure if thats a sign of potential dragging by the lp in nw..its built a bit more

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[snowdrifter]

Definitely a polar low, what a fantastic image, one of the best I've seen in terms textbook.

I cannot tell you how excited I am to see such a well organised polar low.

Unfortunately I'm not sure it will track south over us as I think the Met-office would have picked it up by now.

If it did come our way it would be like winning the snow lottery. What level of confidence would the beeb need before they said anything though? I mean - there's not much middle ground is there. I'm sure must be being observed.

[NorthWest_Snow]

If it did come our way it would be like winning the snow lottery. What level of confidence would the beeb need before they said anything though? I mean - there's not much middle ground is there. I'm sure must be being observed.

it will be being watched very close you can bet on it by the meto..since its still building and difficult to forecast in the first place..i think they are holding off to see what happens in the next hour or so

[dodge]

Well maybe we're all just hoping it's a Polar Low and it's got the North West's name on it, because we see it has the last remaining chance of our region getting any snow this week, and maybe the remainder of this winter.

[Interitus]

Like I say, the Met Office predict it will hit western Scotland tomorrow, and they have a warning of snow for a very small area - Strathclyde - which reflects how small the low is.

[swainclubber]

If it did come our way it would be like winning the snow lottery. What level of confidence would the beeb need before they said anything though? I mean - there's not much middle ground is there. I'm sure must be being observed.

it really is growing but its going nowhere

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well maybe we're all just hoping it's a Polar Low and it's got the North West's name on it, because we see it has the last remaining chance of our region getting any snow this week, and maybe the remainder of this winter.

Im sure you are quite right Dodge.

Today has been a big fat letdown mate.

[NorthWest_Snow]

Like I say, the Met Office predict it will hit western Scotland tomorrow, and they have a warning of snow for a very small area - Strathclyde - which reflects how small the low is.

polar lows do not drop 2-5cm they have the warning for the lp to the nw lol

actually am gonna stop posting them in case the owners go mental..but that is a polar and it is growing very visibly

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[snowdrifter]

Well maybe we're all just hoping it's a Polar Low and it's got the North West's name on it, because we see it has the last remaining chance of our region getting any snow this week, and maybe the remainder of this winter.

Very true words dodge!

[SP1986]

If it did come our way it would be like winning the snow lottery. What level of confidence would the beeb need before they said anything though? I mean - there's not much middle ground is there. I'm sure must be being observed.

Well Polar lows are nowcasting features, as said in a previous post but I do think this is too mature. I think it's developed at the wrong time as there is not a significant northerly flow at the moment to drag it down.

That said I think the met-office would need to see:

- Further development in the next few hours (ie size expansion)

- Continued rotation

- Movement southwards.

We have development it would see in terms of size and we do have rotation, but no real movement southwards.

Polar lows can deliver heavy snow, thunderstorms and tornadoes at their best so the northwest would win the snow lottery were we to get one.

Unfortunately I don't think its coming out way. Imagine if it was though it would be interesting to say the least!

We still have a few months for Polar lows to occur I suppose so we can dream away

Reflecting upon forecast for our areas, we are supposed to be getting showers tomorrow evening from a northwesterly so I imagine that may be the remains of this feature?

[NorthWest_Snow]

i shouldnt need to point out winter in this country certainly for the last 10 years as not ended until the end of march and into april, since this one has been a much colder winter id expect it to last just as long..yes we have a slack high week coming up..which will allow night temps to really drop off and day time temps to also remain low (ie frosts not going anywhere) allowing for any potential snow to have a chance of snowing and sticking..but anything can happen..including that pl..so dont be too downhearted and gloomy...this is the uk..what shouldnt happen does.

[Interitus]

Unfortunately I don't think its coming out way. Imagine if it was though it would be interesting to say the least!

It's probably for the best really - the way things have gone so far it would probably advect warm air over us from the Irish Sea giving rain here before passing through the Cheshire gap and giving blizzards in the midlands and south east.