June CET

[GRHinPorts]

glad you appreciate it

Not so confident with my 15.1 now as it looks like yesterday and today and perhaps even tomorrow will not move the CET up at all.

That only leaves 10 days to go. Although we are entering a warmer spell the CET may only climb slowly to begin with as moderate humidity levels prevent any really warm nights in the reliable timeframe. Also some of the higher maximas might be to the west of the CET zone

Assuming its still 13.7 up till the end of the 21st its not wildly impossible to imagine daily CETs of 18/18.5 (max24/25, mins 11/12) for the remainder of the month. If that was the case we would end exactly on 15.1.

Well done you if thats the case and I would like to add to those thanking you for the regular updates

[reef]

Hadley is on 13.9C to the 22nd.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

This week should see a significant rise, though a mean of 18.0C would be required to hit 15C. High 14s are looking likeliest at present unless it does turn very hot.

[TonyH]

Hadley is on 13.9C to the 22nd.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

This week should see a significant rise, though a mean of 18.0C would be required to hit 15C. High 14s are looking likeliest at present unless it does turn very hot.

15c should be secured then! Ave min 13c with ave max 23c for the rest of the month should be done with ease.

[osmposm]

15c should be secured then! Ave min 13c with ave max 23c for the rest of the month should be done with ease.

I don't think with ease, but certainly possible: as of today I'd guess 14.8. All I can do now is hope for a large and smoky volcano to emerge from the Dogger Bank in a couple of days' time. It's infuriating, really - my 14.4 was looking so good a week or less ago.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

14.1 to the 23rd.

[Stu_London]

happy again with my 15.1

don't think we will quite make it, but should be within less the half a degree

[reef]

happy again with my 15.1

don't think we will quite make it, but should be within less the half a degree

Indeed. Its quite a tough call though, as it difficult to forecast the maxima later this week and indeed the minima this week as they will be heavily dependent on cloud levels. Today's minima for example was a rather average 10.2C on Hadley.

Im hoping we end on 14.8C with a 0.1C correction to land on my estimate of 14.7C. (17.1C would be required from the last 7 days).

[Snowly does it]

Manley is currently running 0.4 behind Hadley - therefore it is possible we may get a realtively large downward correction at month end.

It looks like raw output will be around the 14.8-14.9 region, so the final figure is likely to be somewhere in the 14.5-15.0 area

[kold weather]

Will be interesting to see what happens, the models are trending away from convection on Friday and Saturday which will likely mean slightly higher max temps, though that may be corrected with slightly lower mins...

Also suspect maxes will widely get into the 27-289C between Monday and Wednesday, maybe Thursday

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

im going for 15.6C (higher than most of u guys have gone 4 :lol: ) scince the last 7 days of the month will be a lot above average, push it up up from 14.67C as it stands currently on Netweather. If not.. def 15.0C

Will be interesting to see what happens, the models are trending away from convection on Friday and Saturday which will likely mean slightly higher max temps, though that may be corrected with slightly lower mins...

Also suspect maxes will widely get into the 27-289C between Monday and Wednesday, maybe Thursday

Oh no 289C :o were all doomed! i hope it's closer to the bottom end of that range if not im taking and the draws out of my freezer so i can fit in it!! B)

[osmposm]

im going for 15.6C (higher than most of u guys have gone 4 :lol: ) scince the last 7 days of the month will be a lot above average, push it up up from 14.67C as it stands currently on Netweather. If not.. def 15.0C

We guess/score according to the Met Office Hadley figure, OGTB, which is why we're looking at something not quite so high. So far this year the monthly Hadley CET figure has been consistently below the Net-weather UK temp tracker one by between 0.27 degrees (in March) & 0.66 (May).

Nevertheless I agree that 15.0 is now looking quite likely (before any adjustment).

Edited June 24, 2009 by osmposm

[chionomaniac]

If this late June pattern had manifested itself earlier, as I expected it would, my guess of 16ºC wouldn't be looking as daft as it does now! ....... Ah well, there is always next month.

[GRHinPorts]

If this late June pattern had manifested itself earlier, as I expected it would, my guess of 16ºC wouldn't be looking as daft as it does now! ....... Ah well, there is always next month.

The flip argument being had this heatwave come a week later my 14.3 would have looked quite clever :lol:

Would have made July a potentially easier month to call as well.

[osmposm]

Now 14.2 to the 24th.

Sun/Mon & Mon/Tues looking warmer and warmer now in the South, though the Lancashire figure may peg things back a bit. I'd still say 15.0 unadjusted.

[Higher Ground]

Just a quick question. I noticed the CET minimum for 24th June was 10.2C, which was higher than I expected as it was a relatively chilly night, which even saw a ground frost at Church Lawford. The CET appears to be derived from temps at Pershore, Rothamsted/Cambridge and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I had a look at the following:

http://tinyurl.com/l6dry2

Minimum was 9C at Pershore, 8C/9C/9C at the 3 stations surrounding Rothamsted/Cambridge, and 10C at Manchester (nearest station to Stonyhurst, and more urban thus likely warmer).

Not trying to be awkward, just genuinely curious as to how a figure of 10.2C would have been reached.

[Stu_London]

Just a quick question. I noticed the CET minimum for 24th June was 10.2C, which was higher than I expected as it was a relatively chilly night, which even saw a ground frost at Church Lawford. The CET appears to be derived from temps at Pershore, Rothamsted/Cambridge and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I had a look at the following:

http://tinyurl.com/l6dry2

Minimum was 9C at Pershore, 8C/9C/9C at the 3 stations surrounding Rothamsted/Cambridge, and 10C at Manchester (nearest station to Stonyhurst, and more urban thus likely warmer).

Not trying to be awkward, just genuinely curious as to how a figure of 10.2C would have been reached.

Don't forget the daily series is provisional

A downward revision might occur when calibration occurs at month end

[Scorcher]

Minimum was 9C at Pershore, 8C/9C/9C at the 3 stations surrounding Rothamsted/Cambridge, and 10C at Manchester (nearest station to Stonyhurst, and more urban thus likely warmer).

The Manchester figure will have been taken from the airport which is actually a semi-rural location and seems to be a bit of a frost hollow. Stations just to the north tend to record higher minima. I would not be surprised if Stonyhurst had a higher minimum as there is usually more cloud up there.

[GRHinPorts]

How are sites determined for the CET? Is there an even mix of rural, urban and semi-rural or is there a bias in favour of any one type?

My gut instinct would that CET-land has become more urbanised over the past 50 years (and hence warmer) but perhaps there are checks against this.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

How are sites determined for the CET? Is there an even mix of rural, urban and semi-rural or is there a bias in favour of any one type?

My gut instinct would that CET-land has become more urbanised over the past 50 years (and hence warmer) but perhaps there are checks against this.

http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet/

Since 1974 the data have been adjusted by 0.1-0.3 degree C to allow for urban warming.

Does anyone have the comprehensive list of CET monitoring stations. In the US all stations used to compile temperature data are public.

[damianslaw]

Still sticking with my earlier prediction at the half stage of this month that 15 degrees will be the absolute max the CET will climb to, consequently factoring in the slight downward correction finishing figure will be 14.9 degrees, so a bit above average but nothing exceptional, and a month with noi heatwave however much the media nowadays seems to call a day with 25 degrees in London as a heatwave, gosh that word gets banded about everytime there is warm sunny day in this country...

[Scorcher]

and a month with noi heatwave however much the media nowadays seems to call a day with 25 degrees in London as a heatwave, gosh that word gets banded about everytime there is warm sunny day in this country...

Are you serious? If the models are to be believed next week would certainly qualify as a heatwave in my book. You've got to think about the average temperatures- some places could see temperatures 9 or 10C above average next week so that has to qualify as a heatwave.

Also it was 28C at Heathrow today and 25-26C was seen quite widely, so I don't think it can be called media sensationalism. In fact quite the opposite, as the BBC has not really mentioned the potential heat next week.

[TonyH]

Are you serious? If the models are to be believed next week would certainly qualify as a heatwave in my book. You've got to think about the average temperatures- some places could see temperatures 9 or 10C above average next week so that has to qualify as a heatwave.

Also it was 28C at Heathrow today and 25-26C was seen quite widely, so I don't think it can be called media sensationalism. In fact quite the opposite, as the BBC has not really mentioned the potential heat next week.

Agreed, this will be a heatwave come next week, also 15c will be reached.

Edited June 25, 2009 by Tonyh

[Stu_London]

also 15c will be reached.

needs 18.2 from here

not impossible but will be quite close

[GRHinPorts]

needs 18.2 from here

not impossible but will be quite close

Minimums look to be very high for the coming week so I'd say 18.2 is very acheivable in those circumstances.

http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet/

Does anyone have the comprehensive list of CET monitoring stations. In the US all stations used to compile temperature data are public.

Thanks for the link

I wonder how they arrived at the figure of a 0.1-0.3 downward revision for urban heat effect. Sounds rather arbitrary the way its written on that site but presuambly there is a bit of science to it.

[kold weather]

Yep 18.2 as an average looks more then possible, maxes will widely be around 28C I'd have thought and some stations will get 30C, I'm pretty convinced about that given the temps we saw yesterday under slightly cooler upper atmospheric conditions.