Storm/Convective Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

GFS is actually going for a very active night on the showery ppn,mid-level thunderstorms the best lightning displays you can get.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn244.png

[hammerb32]

What has happened to the metoffices bogus forecast then of severe storms for the end of this week? Why do they do this, yes it's another "bash the metoffice day" cos the 6-15 day forecast at the beginning of this week was looking very positive and they said there would be "showers and thunderstorms, severe in places" and they normally don't use the word severe, now everything has gone quiet am I not right? Does anyone have any ideas if my area and central southern england and the south east will actually end up seeing just 1 storm either tonight or tomorrow because yet again the metoffice make a prediction and then change it and ok fair enough long range forecasts are harder to predict as anything can change in those next few days but they should have just said "thundery showers towards the end of the week" not "thunderstorms, severe in places" cos it's get's people like me really excited and then as per usual the forecast is now bogus and I'm doubtful whether the south east or my area Buckinghamshire will even have a thunderstorm tonight or tomorrow.

Is it looking good or not anyone?

Where've you seen a MO warning for the South East and Bucks for today? Always read the wording of the warning, just because one's issued doesn't mean they're promising it will happen, todays warning talk of a moderate risk of severe weather, nothing more and not for the SE or Bucks..

[Ross B]

Storms starting to kick off in the central belt heading north. No wonder with temps of 27c and dewpoints around 20c!

[Paul Sherman]

Too my surprise the NMM model shows intense precip across the Midlands coming in from the south in the early hours of Friday morning. What's all that about?

That is the possible MCS Coming up from France overnight - And has shown now on back to back runs

Also Interesting is Convection breaking out over the South Downs and up towards Cambs at present

http://www.sat24.com/gb

[Kain]

So if we do get anything in the west midlands..well shropshire, it will be over night?

Chance of an overnight storm?!...Thats better than sex tbh LOL

[UKSupercell]

Had they added something along the lines of "confidence is low at this stage so its something we'll be keeping an eye on as the week progresses" then maybe they (the meto) would not be leaving themselves open to getting a kicking. As for some places having received strong thunderstorms, yes that is correct, but it is also a fact that a hell of a lot of places have seen little if anything.

True but come off it with the "strong thunderstorms" there's been damn all strong thunderstorms this week, the storms at the weekend (which I had) and the ones in Birmingham/staffordshire at the weekend and into Monday were strongish but the last 2 days the storms that the north have had have hardly been strong, a bit of heavy rain and a few very infrequent cloud-ground strikes, ooooh woop dee doo real big storms they were.....Seriously though I monitored some of the northern storms and they had damn all lightning on strikestar.eu or Isle of wight lightning radar, they weren't strong storms.

Strong storms in the UK are storms with fairly frequent cloud-ground lightning, torrential rain and hail, also severe wind gusts in certain storms.

The weekend just about edged strong storms but the last 2 days the storms weren't strong mate, damn the yanks would be laughing at us talking about "strong storms" with their supercells that drop baseball size hail and F2-F5 tornadoes.

[Methuselah]

Yep, sounds like thunder!

[philglossop]

Plymouth still firmly in the No Storms Club- but very cloudy here and with sporadic heavy downpours. Temperature has certainly dropped as well.

Ah well.

[Coast]

Also Interesting is Convection breaking out over the South Downs and up towards Cambs at present

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Just looking out of the office window at that very event

Do they still eat horses and snails in France? I'm not going stormchasing if we have to eat a 72 oz horse steak

Edited July 2, 2009 by Coast

[UKSupercell]

Where've you seen a MO warning for the South East and Bucks for today? Always read the wording of the warning, just because one's issued doesn't mean they're promising it will happen, todays warning talk of a moderate risk of severe weather, nothing more and not for the SE or Bucks..

When did I say that? No I haven't seen a warning for the south east or bucks today, there hasn't been one....

And I know just because metoffice or whoever it is issue a warning it doesn't mean it'll happen, this was a forecast though and the metoffice didn't put "there's a low risk" or "there is a possibility" they just put things like "at the end of the week there will be showers and thunderstorms, severe in places," sounds very confident to me but it never happens and i've said before on Net-weather the metoffice have predicted storms (and a lot closer to the actual day) incorrect several times this year. It's very frustrating.

[StormChaseUK]

Lightning appearing off Cherbourg

[dallas]

That is the possible MCS Coming up from France overnight - And has shown now on back to back runs

Also Interesting is Convection breaking out over the South Downs and up towards Cambs at present

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Paul,

Any reason why France gets good cape values over it's N/E quadrant more often than not?

Cheers

[Godot]

Very humid here. It's impossible to see if there's any convection going on because of poor visibility, which is very frustrating!

[Lewis]

I will have the East Hull weather cam on for a 48 hour period, where the threat of storms is at the greatest, you can tune in here; http://www.weatherinhull.com/

Feel free to checkout my local conditions on my station, compare them to yours, not bad ay!!!!.

Btw if you see some ash fly by it's me having a fag! lol

[fromey]

Very humid here. It's impossible to see if there's any convection going on because of poor visibility, which is very frustrating!

Poor visiblity? there is some convection starting, wether we get anthing from it is another question

[anvilhead]

imports do look possible for tonight - it almost looks as if that early mcs over western france has held up the front/trough with a nice deformation zone around it and the trough progressing west further south .. all good news for CS england imo

[UKSupercell]

The key word in all that is 'Predicted'. A prediction is just that, what they think may happen, doesn't necessarily mean they will be right. I too have ranted on about poor storm forecasts from the Meto though I understand that in this country in particuarly, it is very difficult to predict convective weather. And I'm sure the SPC in the U.S has got it wrong alot of times with their storm forecasts so it's not really a Meto only problem.

I do hope so then, I just want to see a proper storm that's all, the one on saturday was very impressive for the precipitation, I mean the rain and hail was immensely torrential and the lightning wasn't bad.

I'd rather see a worthwhile storm though, a storm which hits during the night preferably with a lightning strikes at least once every 5-10 seconds, most storms i've seen in the last few years are boring as hell, like 1 lightning flash every 30 seconds or minute, its not that exciting.

Would love to see some really powerful home-grown convection as well and witness a supercell formation of some sort, would be spectacular.

I'm sure the SPC in the USA get the forecasts wrong from time to time and it's probably easier to predict over there due to the size of the land mass but they sure have better radars than us.

EDIT: Although the net-weather's radars look pretty good, might have to sign up sometime soon, the metoffice's radar I think should be better for the chief forecasting business of the UK.

Edited July 2, 2009 by UKSupercell

[Trancemaster1966]

Loads of convection going on to my NE.....Huge anvil forming. Methinks Central Scotland and the North East are going to get a pounding!!!!

Edited July 2, 2009 by Trancemaster1966

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Funny you should say that - Watch for an announcement from Paul in the Announcement and News area at the top of the Forum over the next week or so :o

If it fall's upon my wedding day ... I will boycott my wedding for it ...

[Paul Sherman]

Paul,

Any reason why France gets good cape values over it's N/E quadrant more often than not?

Cheers :o

Simple reason is quite literally that 22 Mile Stretch of Water that Seperates us and them They have the Continental Climate whereas we are Polar Maritime, the distance makes no difference if they have a Land mass of 1,000 Miles feeding them to their South and South East / South West they are going to get some pretty impressive Cape Values, that is why the US Plains get such amazing Cape Values, they have the Moisture feed from the GOM And then it is Land, Land & More Land for nearly 2,000 Miles from Corpus Christi to Fargo in N Dakota.

I would pave the bugger over if I could Now there's a thought

imports do look possible for tonight - it almost looks as if that early mcs over western france has held up the front/trough with a nice deformation zone around it and the trough progressing west further south .. all good news for CS england imo

Agreed 100% Sam

[chapmanslade]

What appears to be CZ triggering convection over the Cherbourg Peninsula just ahead of the front and also a distinct wave developing to the south of that, that seemed to have at least in part been triggered by the storm over Bordeaux this morning. The effect has been to delay the front moving east over the UK. I think this is a rapidly changing situation and would not be surprised to see Dorset and a line North see some thundery activity later. Temperature here significantly higher than expected and close to 30C again already, whereas 70 miles west only 20C.

Stop moaning about forecast activity and whether you do or don't want a storm and whether you will or won't get a storm and start looking out of the window and watch the situation develop. Today has been very interesting over France and has changed the way events are going to unfold. It is a great day for learning and watching developments. If you want to have a bit of fun look at the sticky thread at the top of this section of the forum and try to work out what sort of storms are around today in different areas. That way you will need to rely less on general TV forecasts and be able to work things out for yourselves.

[dallas]

Simple reason is quite literally that 22 Mile Stretch of Water that Seperates us and them :o They have the Continental Climate whereas we are Polar Maritime, the distance makes no difference if they have a Land mass of 1,000 Miles feeding them to their South and South East / South West they are going to get some pretty impressive Cape Values, that is why the US Plains get such amazing Cape Values, they have the Moisture feed from the GOM And then it is Land, Land & More Land for nearly 2,000 Miles from Corpus Christi to Fargo in N Dakota.

I would pave the bugger over if I could Now there's a thought

Cheers for that, more clued up now.

lol for the paving, chasers dream i think!

[Godot]

Poor visiblity?

Low level cloud? I'm not that up on meteorology, all I know is that the only thing visible is blinding white haze.

[Coast]

Cu's now turning to Cb's over the Downs and building.

Tonight is nailed for me as one of the 'old boys' from our machine shop has just said to me (quite unprompted and without knowing my interest) 'there's gonna be a big thunderstorm later' in a kind of Sussex yokel/sailor accent

[Harry]

Simple reason is quite literally that 22 Mile Stretch of Water that Seperates us and them They have the Continental Climate whereas we are Polar Maritime, the distance makes no difference if they have a Land mass of 1,000 Miles feeding them to their South and South East / South West they are going to get some pretty impressive Cape Values, that is why the US Plains get such amazing Cape Values, they have the Moisture feed from the GOM And then it is Land, Land & More Land for nearly 2,000 Miles from Corpus Christi to Fargo in N Dakota.

I would pave the bugger over if I could Now there's a thought

The devastating news is not that long ago (geologically speaking of course) the Channel didn't exist, and it was one big connection!!

Good news re: potential imports - always good to hear :o