Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

[Harry]

Just a reminder of another Thursday 6th August, this one in 1981:

Article courtesy ‘The Wrong Kind of Snow’ – Woodwood and Penn

Photo courtesy Dave Clarke UKWW

But I'm not comparing......

The similarities between those two charts are quite staggering actually!

Just have to hope that the cold front does as is expected and stalls, keeping the humid air and potential imports pumping in our direction.

[maidstone weather]

Just a reminder of another Thursday 6th August, this one in 1981:

I tell ya now, the 6th August has a magical air about it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I tell ya now, the 6th August has a magical air about it

i remember 6th august 03 it was unbelievably hot

[Harry]

I tell ya now, the 6th August has a magical air about it

If only the charts I'm looking at had the same magical air about them

[Coast]

Kaddy was a little minx tonight, showing clear all the way through Thursday, but....

what did she have for us on Friday????

[Harry]

Kaddy was a little minx tonight, showing clear all the way through Thursday, but....

what did she have for us on Friday????

I am equally curious as to where our little minx is looking also...charts now seem to suggest that potential would have gone by Friday

Edited August 4, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

clearly not these latest FAX charts Harry - oh dear springs to mind!

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVJ89.png <- trough is now over France, not the southeast!

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVK89.png <- cold front much further east than this morning's chart (http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVL89.png) - game over!?

[Paul Sherman]

Well one of the Ingrediants has come together - Flying Ants Everywhere tonight

[maidstone weather]

Well one of the Ingrediants has come together - Flying Ants Everywhere tonight

lets try and restore some hope...

the 12 GFS operational was an outlier in terms of the upper air temperatures are lower than all of the remaining ensembles for Friday - promising?

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20090804/12/t850Kent.png

also for Friday, the 12z GFS operational has a higher pressure value predicated than any of the other ensembles - promising?

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20090804/12/prmslKent.png

Therefore I would deduce, based on that one run, that the upper air temperatures will be a degree or 2 higher and the pressure a few mb lower than the GFS is predicting for Friday, which all help storm development

[A.J]

Well one of the Ingrediants has come together - Flying Ants Everywhere tonight

Sounds like a hint of summer down there Paul....All we have is flying tonight is.........drizzle.......**sigh**

[maidstone weather]

UKMO 12z is expecting something pretty heavy to hit C/SE/E England on Thursday night:

[Paul Sherman]

Sounds like a hint of summer down there Paul....All we have is flying tonight is.........drizzle.......**sigh**

Yeah

Remember we are almost Continental here in Essex - Last 3 days have been very nice Indeed

Sunday 25c

Monday 24c

Tuesday 25c

Not bad at all.

Paul S

[Costa Del Fal]

Its felt very warm/humid outside today with a few glimmers of sunshine. Some rain today but not much. After today its an improvement all the way and when the sun comes out it will feel very nice.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Remember we are almost Continental here in Essex -

Do people sit outside at 9PM sipping wine?

[saint]

Do people sit outside at 9PM sipping wine?

Untill a youth comes and nicks the wine?

[maidstone weather]

cold front much further west on latest BBC forecast, was supposed to reach Surrey for example by early afternoon, now not expected till overnight.

[remymartin]

cold front much further west on latest BBC forecast, was supposed to reach Surrey for example by early afternoon, now not expected till overnight.

YEP much further west on the forcast after the 10 oclock news on the beeb, you might get your storm after all mw

Edited August 4, 2009 by remymartin

[maidstone weather]

I suspect Thursday night/early hours of Friday will be the only chance we have (isn't it always a Thursday night?!)

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVG89.png <-Thursday

all troughs removed

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVI89.png <- Thursday night

by Friday it seems the Low pressure developing over Benelux will give the required 'push' to shunt the cold front rapidly eastwards, and hence by Friday even the southeast is now in the fresher air.

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVJ89.png <- Friday

[Harry]

I suspect Thursday night/early hours of Friday will be the only chance we have (isn't it always a Thursday night?!)

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVG89.png <-Thursday

all troughs removed

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVI89.png <- Thursday night

by Friday it seems the Low pressure developing over Benelux will give the required 'push' to shunt the cold front rapidly eastwards, and hence by Friday even the southeast is now in the fresher air.

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVJ89.png <- Friday

LOL - those charts are so "busy"....can we really even speculate?

The Beeb yesterday seemed to have the thoughts the humid air would push back in on Friday if the CF tried to move through.

Also, apparently today 28C in the SE...feels like it that's for sure.

Further to Paul's comment regarding the continental SE - we havent actually had THAT bad a summer here IMO. Obviously, not been many heatwaves, but it's been pleasantly warm most of the time. Hot and humid today, lovely

EDIT - Storm Risk/CAPE charts on GFS look crap for storms IMO (all I have got time to check lol, off to work)

Edited August 5, 2009 by Harry

[Coast]

I suspect Thursday night/early hours of Friday will be the only chance we have (isn't it always a Thursday night?!)

With you there MW

Humidity and dewpoints cranking up already today, currently the DP is 16.7 DgC in an air temp of 19.1 DgC so lets hope that at least continues.

LI and Total-totals for tomorrow night looking better again:

CAPE is no great shakes but what there is, is in the right place! (over Paul Sherman's house again)

Interesting thoughts from 21st OWS:

(Some of us are going to like that) With a slight chance of a reload on Friday during the day????

Chances are still low for the next two days, but they are chances.......

[Harry]

Humid and warm air really digging in now - at home this morning, 8am, it was 22.5C. Bit more cloud around at the moment in London, but whenever the sun gets out, the temperature rockets! If we had clear skies all day today, I'd say we could reach 28C-29C easily - with the cloud floating around, typically 25-26C I'd say (SE anyway)

[Harry]

There does seem to be the chance of heavy (thundery?) downpours pushing across us tonight, though chiefly it would seem for CS England, E Midlands towards northern EA.

[Coast]

Stunning Altocumulus sky this morning running ahead of the front and in the same orientation - virtually in all of the visible sky. A nice foretell of things to come maybe?

[Costa Del Fal]

Clutching at straws i think looking at some of the previous posts! Can i have a storm yet-been waiting for a month now.

Sun is out here today and pleasantly warm-will do very nicely.

Edited August 5, 2009 by Blizzards

[Stuart]

Clutching at straws i think looking at some of the previous posts! Can i have a storm yet-been waiting for a month now.

Sun is out here today and pleasantly warm-will do very nicely.

you had more storms then me this year i only had 3