Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

[maidstone weather]

IMO those charts at present are woeful!! It did worry me when people were worried whether the E or W would get the action - now it looks like neither of us will .

I cannot see where the potential is to be honest - if the warm/humid air doesn't get as far as us and stays over the continent, then I am not sure what a trough will do other than provide possibly thundery showers. If the timing is good, we could well get some intense storms off of the convergence between the E moving front and W moving trough - but as for imports and such I think it's a write off AT THE MOMENT. What I also don't like about that front is the waveyness of it - I have a feeling it will be a bank of cloud and persistent heavy rain with odd rumbles, rather than thundery activity we were perhaps hoping for.

Was all looking so rosey as well

Still...let's not be too pessimistic - a stalling cold front has been our friend a few times this year, no reason why it cant happen again!

a wavy cold front gave several Level 2's from ESTOFEX two weeks ago for C-E France and Germany. Can't see quite the same level of severity, but interesting none-the-less. I agree though, the potential has significantly dropped in just 24 hours!

[Coast]

Here you go guys, something from Sussex to stick on the MP3 player and listen to with your headphones on, in a dark room.

Now just think positive thoughts for this week.....

Storm June 05.mp3

(courtesy of www.freesound.org)

[Noctilucid]

That cold warm boundary dosen't looks like its moving at all for a while, we've had a few near misses the past week, on Friday we had a warm and humid morning followed by a very chilly and wet afternoon, and Brussels recorded 27C that day, just shows how local the weather can be, this looks like another near miss again.

[Harry]

Here you go guys, something from Sussex to stick on the MP3 player and listen to with your headphones on, in a dark room.

Now just think positive thoughts for this week.....

Storm June 05.mp3

(courtesy of www.freesound.org)

Latest GFS is far more encouraging than the previous - well, for the SE at this stage anyway!

I dont think I can take much more of this - I can't remember the last time I saw such a dynamic set of charts - we're in, then out, then in, then out, then in again...arrrrghhhh!!!

The beauty of mother nature....

[Coast]

At this point, charts for a TStorm 84 hours away are just for a bit of fun, you might as well cross a Gypsy's hand with silver to get an accurate forecast! I think 12 hours away may even be pushing it and as always, the radar, satellite and detectors will give us thrills or spills. But here's the latest pendulum swing for the ever-hopeful Hants/Sussex/Kent/Essex/London mob:

Total-totals still look OK-ish, bu the LI struggles to get to 0, let alone go negative.

CAPE is marginal too, but there are so many other factors to consider (and still to change) that this appears the best one at the moment

Not a replica of last year, but I can't remember how far in advance we were getting indications then.

[Harry]

At this point, charts for a TStorm 84 hours away are just for a bit of fun, you might as well cross a Gypsy's hand with silver to get an accurate forecast! I think 12 hours away may even be pushing it and as always, the radar, satellite and detectors will give us thrills or spills. But here's the latest pendulum swing for the ever-hopeful Hants/Sussex/Kent/Essex/London mob:

Total-totals still look OK-ish, bu the LI struggles to get to 0, let alone go negative.

CAPE is marginal too, but there are so many other factors to consider (and still to change) that this appears the best one at the moment

Not a replica of last year, but I can't remember how far in advance we were getting indications then.

If I remember rightly (I could well be wrong) the storms last year on Aug 6th were quite last minute! I think they were only really a possibility a day or two in advance!

Still, on present GFS we should be good, but obviously I'd expect the next run to push us back out again

[maidstone weather]

If I remember rightly (I could well be wrong) the storms last year on Aug 6th were quite last minute! I think they were only really a possibility a day or two in advance!

Still, on present GFS we should be good, but obviously I'd expect the next run to push us back out again

according to null archives, the plume was showing up on the charts several days before, but the locations expected to be hit and how (ie storms developing over Channel and moving across far SE) wasn't determined until at the earliest the evening before, but I suspect the greatest confidence came on the morning of the 6th. Still some way to go yet then

[Coast]

If I remember rightly (I could well be wrong) the storms last year on Aug 6th were quite last minute! I think they were only really a possibility a day or two in advance!

I’ve not looked at specific, retrospective storm information before and although I know that a series of historical charts/data doesn’t present an argument for it happening (or not) again, I thought I should remind myself of the lead up to that event because my memory is like a goldfish!

The Herstmonceux Skew T for 12z on 06/08/08

CAPE as forecast for the time period on 06/08/08 as at 01/08/08

LI as forecast for the time period on 06/08/08 as at 01/08/08

Still none the wiser about this week though!

[maidstone weather]

FAX chart from that famous night of the 6th August (6th into 7th)

Not quite the same setup as this year it would seem?

[dave48]

The quality of data and knowledge on here is always improving, it's fantastic.

Harry, where did you get those archive CAPE charts?

Edited August 3, 2009 by dave48

[Coast]

I hate to tease.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jRToyQD_94&

[fromey]

I hate to tease.........

http://www.youtube.c...?v=8jRToyQD_94&

that was amazing, nice sound track

[dave48]

Latest GFS shifts the 'plume' even further away to the East, or so it would seem. What is this chart suggesting?

That chart matches with the met office that came out this morning, right now looks like a typical plume with an associated MCS type feature moving up across the south east, just depends whether all the south east and east anglia get hit or if it's a kent clipper.

[maidstone weather]

oh dear cold/warm front further east, trough removed too

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVK89.png

[Wilxy92]

Big downgrade in temps aswel but still time for change i hope at least high pressure will still take over.

[Harry]

The quality of data and knowledge on here is always improving, it's fantastic.

Harry, where did you get those archive CAPE charts?

Hi Dave

Coast provided those charts, not me though I was wondering the same as you

Yes, the overall outlook now looks, at best, pony!! We may scrape an import in the SE, otherwise, I can't see much to get excited about!

The only positive thing to take from this, is that the charts are STILL topsy turvy. And, nobody seems to know what the front is going to do! Judging by Dan Corbett's forecast earlier, the front is going to stall pretty much across C/W England, E Wales up through C Scotland as early as late tomorrow night. If it stays there, or even edges back to the W, game on! If it creeps E, then the crunch will be timing, and even then slim chances.

What's more, for all Kentish/Sussex people, Kaddy was banging on about short heatwave and then had a paddy about impending thunderstorms....we know what that means..........

Lets see what the updated charts offer us...

[Harry]

This was the MetO surface pressure charts this morning....the pain ohhh what could have been...lol

[Noctilucid]

It looks like the edge of the warm air will wave back and forth over the extreme SE until Saturday, so several windows for storms and thundery rain imports in the SE, although the main fireworks are reserved for France and Belgium at this stage.

[Harry]

It looks like the edge of the warm air will wave back and forth over the extreme SE until Saturday, so several windows for storms and thundery rain imports in the SE, although the main fireworks are reserved for France and Belgium at this stage.

I say it time and time again - though I may drive down to the coast (Dymchurch) Thursday night to look for imports. At this stage, if there are going to be storms, this will be the place to be.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Harry

[remymartin]

It could still be on for some according to the second post here http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31838&posts=2&mid=465738#M465738 Any thoughts?

Edited August 3, 2009 by remymartin

[maidstone weather]

trough still there for Friday

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVM89.png

[maidstone weather]

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVK89.png

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVL89.png

[Coast]

What is this chart suggesting?

A storm directly over my house!!!

Coast provided those charts, not me though I was wondering the same as you

www.ready.noaa.gov

What's more, for all Kentish/Sussex people, Kaddy was banging on about short heatwave and then had a paddy about impending thunderstorms....we know what that means..........

I missed Kaddy banging on, shame....

Our own Michael Fish was moonlighting at the Beeb this morning and was also talking about the front waving backward and forward with a thundery breakdown toward the end of the week.

Question 1) Which of the following is a Kent Clipper:

a)

b )

c)

d)

Edited August 4, 2009 by Coast

[Harry]

LOL!!! Especially the last one :lol:

Really haven't got a clue now what is going to happen over the coming days - from what I can make out from the charts, we could either have BOOMING thunderstorms, either home grown/imported, or a bank of cloud with occasional heavy bursts of rain!

This is definitely a wait and see scenario!!

What I am certain of though - the very humid air is definitely here!!!!!!

Edited August 4, 2009 by Harry

[Coast]

Just a reminder of another Thursday 6th August, this one in 1981:

6th August 1981 is vividly remembered by Londoners as the day the sky turns black. At midday, in sweltering beat, the sky suddenly starts darkening and, like some science fiction nightmare, it keeps on darkening. Street lamps automatically come on. Motorists have to switch on their headlights. Eventually, it's like the dead of night. But this is no solar eclipse; as people are wondering if the apocalypse is nigh, the cloudburst begins

‘When Day Became Night’ headlines London’s Evening Standard. The explanation is a giant cumulonimbus thundercloud that develops when a trough of low pressure moving North from France encounters hot, moist air over Southern England. Experts subsequently reckon the cloud to be 8 miles (13 km) high – If true it’s one of the largest storm clouds ever. Remarkably something similar has been happening further north; in Manchester, 95.9mm (3.8 inches) of rain – six weeks worth – falls in a few hours the previous night.

Article courtesy ‘The Wrong Kind of Snow’ – Woodwood and Penn

Photo courtesy Dave Clarke UKWW

But I'm not comparing......

Edited August 4, 2009 by Coast