Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

[Harry]

I think a reality check is in need of here peeps...we are still 3-5 days off the plume 'event' itself, therefore IMO too early to start looking at E/W splits and who is likely to get the most action. At the moment anywhere from the Welsh borders eastwards is looking favourable for at least one thundery event of sorts. MCS imports appears to be the name of the game initially, which we all know from earlier this year alone how that can affect the chances the following day for different areas. We also know that MCS' can take their own path, so just because the GFS has W Midlands or Kent under a 70-80% risk, means v little in reality.

I'm still hoping the plume comes off to start with, before looking at the finer details much nearer the time! I wont be looking for locations until Wednesday day time, as this IMO is the first day thundery events are possible - then, the usual radar watching and the Estofex Zone 2 (or even a 3) staying over France

Sorry I sound like a miserable, pessimistic b@$t@Rdo, but I, like everyone else, am started to get really excited at the prospects, but know there is still too much scope for it to go tits up!

Edited August 2, 2009 by Harry

[Lightningboy]

i am hoping that this happens but i think would be a bit est of me but too early to say

im just worried we will get sod all

[Harry]

i am hoping that this happens but i think would be a bit est of me but too early to say

im just worried we will get sod all

I think during any plume events, you are in one of the prime positions Lightningboy! Even if the storms do not hit you direct, you have a clear view (assuming clear skies of course) of cells to your E, W, SE, SW etc...not only this, you have arguably the best views of the cells structure (wide open expanse of the channel), AND, best views of the cells when they are often at their strongest!

Agreed, it is too early to speculate who will get what, but I am jealous of the views you are likely to get of whatever happens.

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm really liking Thursday more as each run comes in, and I'm not sure if I should. The FAX chart which MW provided the link to shows a trough coming in from the SE aswell as some nice CAPE values over the East Mids and EA. This makes me think that the West Mids and perhaps SW and Wales could get some big storms on Thursday. I know I posted on this a few hours ago but the more I look at the charts the more I think the Midlands could be in with a good chance of proper thunderstorms.

It may just be that the EA and the SE will get storms but wind direction and shear could get things organised and shift them slightly NWards. Thoughts anyone?

I agree 100%. At first glance it looks like a non event for us but when you look at things like you have mentioned i think we stand a decent chance.

[dogs32]

well Im still sticking my neck out and saying its going to be through the middle of the country and up through the midlands

Edited August 2, 2009 by dogs32

[Lightningboy]

I think during any plume events, you are in one of the prime positions Lightningboy! Even if the storms do not hit you direct, you have a clear view (assuming clear skies of course) of cells to your E, W, SE, SW etc...not only this, you have arguably the best views of the cells structure (wide open expanse of the channel), AND, best views of the cells when they are often at their strongest!

Agreed, it is too early to speculate who will get what, but I am jealous of the views you are likely to get of whatever happens.

yh i must admit we do have excellant views lookin goout to see and seeing if the storms move towards kent but thats when im up culver down i think it will be similar to last year bu tyeh too early say but if it were to happen i gota good view of the lightning for hours going towards kent and the east my mates dad got some amazing pics and he let me have ago. but im keeping my fingers crosse

[dogs32]

Risk of thunderstorms

for Fri/Sat

Forecasts - Week ahead : Temperatures rising - Risk of thunderstorms . ... Another area of thundery rain or showers may creep into southeast England and parts of the Midlands overnight,

from another source

Friday 7th seems on the whole likely to see a rather slack regime everywhere; higher pressure to the north of the UK but perhaps a thundery low near SE'ern areas and in the far north fronts may move NE from the west across here by day, again some mist or low cloud patches inland overnight and dry but some showers developing by day in the south, east & Midlands possibly heavy and thundery, and slow moving where do do develop. Cloudier in the far north west with the risk of some more persistent rain or showery rain esp later in the NW at times too. Temperatures reaching a warm or very warm 22-26C in the south east and east inland only 17-19C

Edited August 2, 2009 by dogs32

[Wilxy92]

Im not getting my hopes up cause im not in a very good spot right now cause its not warm enough so anything that passes through here will be rain.

[maidstone weather]

I think during any plume events, you are in one of the prime positions Lightningboy! Even if the storms do not hit you direct, you have a clear view (assuming clear skies of course) of cells to your E, W, SE, SW etc...not only this, you have arguably the best views of the cells structure (wide open expanse of the channel), AND, best views of the cells when they are often at their strongest!

Agreed, it is too early to speculate who will get what, but I am jealous of the views you are likely to get of whatever happens.

same! all we have here is views of houses, houses and, erm, more houses!

[Harry]

I'm getting excited too and really shouldn't :lol: It's not really E/W splits that's being discussed but rather the chances of warm moist plume reaching the Midlands and therefore being in an unstable environment come Thursday evening/night. At the moment the CAPE looks to be staying around the East Mids and EA region but obviously that doesn't mean storms will be confined to these areas, should any storms develop in the SE and move more inland they could be sustained into the Midlands region.

Though as you say, too far away to be discussing the finer details about the wheres and whens......and the Supercell potential :lol:

Just to get us all in the mood that little bit more, I found this cool timelapse of 'THE' Aug 6th plume storms from last year. Bearing in mind, this was filmed from C London, so saw less than what was produced further East...just see how there was active storm after active storm!

Edited August 2, 2009 by Harry

[Noctilucid]

Nice vid Harry, I was right under quite a lot of the closer lightning in that vid, I'll try and find the video I took.

Looks like a classic Cold front setup, with the front really dragging its heels across the UK, look out for thudnery rain moving Northwards or NNE'wards across CS and eventually SE England, the fax charts also suggest a shortwave trough thrown in there over the SE which would also likely produce lines of storms rumbling NE wards.

Its cutting it very fine indeed, it would only need a shift eastwards of about 50-100 miles for it all to go very wrong, the cold front may move faster than expected, although its forecast to even stall and become a Westwards moving warm front for a while.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Now 0% storm chance for Thursday

[A.J]

Now 0% storm chance for Thursday

Yep, The 12zGFS run is pants for storms anywhere away from the SE, no CAPE, no lift, diddly-squat and rather cool....Hope that all changes in forthcoming runs!

[Wilxy92]

Good news is on thursday its looking alot more widespread temps with 23C could be seen here now.

[Harry]

Hmm...despite living in the SE I dont like the look of that latest GFS run at all...yes there is a very good chance of thundery activity all the same, but there is a very clear push E! Another push E like that in future runs and its game over effectively.

Still, the GFS runs lately have been going backwards and forwards, and there is every chance they will improve further nearer the time.

[Coast]

Still looking OK guys, just moves forward a few hours:

Of course, nothing is set in stone until the bangs start overhead, but even though I'm reining in the excitement, I'm still watching for possibilities.

[dogs32]

better not to put to much faith into the GFS run's this far out...

so im taking this with a pinch of salt

[maidstone weather]

eastward shift also visible on latest FAX, which pushes the cold front over the SE rather than to the west of it like last night's chart

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVM89.png

[Noctilucid]

But notice that its not a cold front, its an Westwards advancing warm front, there will probrably be some erratic motions as continental air wrestles with Atlantic air over occupying the UK, t'is a fine line between fireworks and a complete no show.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The trend is for all the action to be further eastwards, as is usually the case.

Typical

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow each run over the last 24 hours has downgraded each time. GFS 18z makes around here one of the warmest on Thursday. Lol. Cape has gone down to nothing. Hope it changes but looks like a classic situation where the continent keeps all.

[Coast]

eastward shift also visible on latest FAX, which pushes the cold front over the SE rather than to the west of it like last night's chart

Ahhh, the pleasures of following the weather for a hobby!

I've noticed a lot of 'empty' charts for the end of the week on several model/chart sites. Is this because of faulty data from one source they all share, or something else?

[maidstone weather]

not quite sure what you mean Coast?

But, the trough is back on for Wednesday night, although to me looks like a Kent clipper?

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVK89.png

Still there at 1pm Thursday too! http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVL89.png

Now move a tad west and I'll be happy

[Coast]

not quite sure what you mean Coast?

It's a nightmare worse than waiting for the lottery numbers!

Look, no weather at all!!!!!

[Harry]

IMO those charts at present are woeful!! It did worry me when people were worried whether the E or W would get the action - now it looks like neither of us will .

I cannot see where the potential is to be honest - if the warm/humid air doesn't get as far as us and stays over the continent, then I am not sure what a trough will do other than provide possibly thundery showers. If the timing is good, we could well get some intense storms off of the convergence between the E moving front and W moving trough - but as for imports and such I think it's a write off AT THE MOMENT. What I also don't like about that front is the waveyness of it - I have a feeling it will be a bank of cloud and persistent heavy rain with odd rumbles, rather than thundery activity we were perhaps hoping for.

Was all looking so rosey as well

Still...let's not be too pessimistic - a stalling cold front has been our friend a few times this year, no reason why it cant happen again!