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Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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flagpole Rookie

flagpole

Posted
  • Location: Lindum Colonia
  • Location: Lindum Colonia
Posted

Currently a very heavy thunderstorm in Lincoln - some of the thunder sounds like explosions. Sorry, really not very technical - not a hugely active storm but what there is, is really loud and scaring my cats! biggrin.gif

I'll second that! The cat fell off the windowsill in fright and I nearly wet myself! Had no idea we were set for a storm today! Bonus :o

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Wait and see , watch it get shifted towards the east :o

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Wilxy92 Newbie

Wilxy92

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Well I am expecting the SE to have the best chance of getting storms, if any, this week so not gonna be disppointed about it. However at the moment it would seem the charts are shifting the storm risk further West as I've already said....so yeah the Midlands has a good chance of seeing Supercells this Thursday laugh.gifph34r.gif

Hopefully my chances are increasing.

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

how early before met office before start to issue early warning for Thursday!!!

Edited by tinybill
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Well I am expecting the SE to have the best chance of getting storms, if any, this week so not gonna be disppointed about it. However at the moment it would seem the charts are shifting the storm risk further West as I've already said....so yeah the Midlands has a good chance of seeing Supercells this Thursday :D :o

Plonk one of those babies within 150 miles of my front door step on Thursday, and I'm there!! :D

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

This should really be in the other thread! :o

The 6th august thread should be merged into this current one me thinks

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

this the best one i can find at the moment for Thursday

post-4629-12491556005034_thumb.png

Edited by tinybill
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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

Not sure which thread to post in, one needs locking.

But really looking forward to next week, looks good at the minute. A good chance of some severe storms.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

GFS 12z pushes the instability a little further West with CZs all over the place for Thursday. I'm little more interested now since this time the wind direction would be a South-Easterly so the Midlands and parts of the West could benefit most, should the charts continue to shift the CAPE a little West.

One to watch out for as it's not just the SE that could be in with a chance for storms.

I agree-that run has brought us that bit more back in the game. :)

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

I agree, next week does look good for some intense storms. I think lock this thread since the focus is on Thursday and whether Supercells will break out. biggrin.gif

DLS of 20 is a legitimate supercell parameter I think and there will be plenty of that about so i'm looking forward to it, if not a great shot at some severe multicells and organised bands of convection. If this fails, then it's going to have to be two weeks in Florida in early september. biggrin.gif

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pottyprof Enthusiast

pottyprof

Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Posted

yes and they will be the breeding ground for us for a change :)

Nice one Pat!!.. Hope it comes off for you.. :)

Know the feeling well tho.. :)

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

I'm really liking Thursday more as each run comes in, and I'm not sure if I should. The FAX chart which MW provided the link to shows a trough coming in from the SE aswell as some nice CAPE values over the East Mids and EA. This makes me think that the West Mids and perhaps SW and Wales could get some big storms on Thursday. I know I posted on this a few hours ago but the more I look at the charts the more I think the Midlands could be in with a good chance of proper thunderstorms.

It may just be that the EA and the SE will get storms but wind direction and shear could get things organised and shift them slightly NWards. Thoughts anyone? biggrin.gif

Don't know if you have looked at the theta e and ML CAPE but a nice plume comes into the west and up into the midlands too during the night according to the latest GFS. In a highly sheared environment too! biggrin.gif

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Havent seen a bolt of lightning here since last year Potty.. :o

getting extremely rare...

On the latest charts I think the East is winning the battle :o

As its shifted more to the East

But I have hope as its a long way off that things will change for us over here in NeverLand

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