Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

[YokTok]

I'm going to be in Appledore, Kent for a entire week starting tomorrow :lol: I've gone and gotten the PC 3G internet tether for the iPhone (£15 had better be worth it). Going to keep a close eye on things, surrounded by nothing apart from open fields for miles so it could be a gooden

[viking_smb]

Odd one this morning. General consensus all round is that it's a quiet day but 21st OWS show something in Northern Ireland/Western Scotland?

Must be an aviation thing as the WAFC chart also shows something moving across that area:

If it is, then I think its early hours of tomorrow and too far off the coast

for those in cardiff,

I'm thinking i'm hearing thunder? or is it fireworks

cheers

[Cloud 10]

A long way out,but some very thundery looking charts from the ecm this evening,looks like a "humdinger" set up.

[Harry]

By "AGAIN" i just meant more storm potential

As for the 'plume' event, well even though rather shortlived the charts of hinting at a wider storm potential area late next week into the following week. Monday 10th in particular has some very high CAPE values for the Midlands. It's very early to discuss this as the GFS is more than likely to scrap that idea but it's still nice to look at on a chart...just wish for once it would pull off

Well...that didnt last long did it! Back now to chances for Weds and Thurs only!

[dallas]

Well...that didnt last long did it! Back now to chances for Weds and Thurs only!

Be more changes I think, but its gonna be hot!

[maidstone weather]

At last the MetO have cottoned on!

An increasing risk of thundery showers in the south and east, with perhaps more organised thundery rain at times. Becoming warm in most places with lighter winds than of late and humid in the south

[Harry]

By "increasing risk of thundery showers" they mean "increasing risk of MCS event" or just "big thunderstorms from France" :lol: Would love to be in the SE this week..looks like it could be interesting

Why don't you take a trip down to the SE then Weather09? Book into a hotel for Weds night, then spend Thurs watching models etc...I LOVE plume events - even if we dont get a direct hit, watching the radar go bang over France, the anvils spewing in from the South, Acas, and then inevitably flashing, even if it stays in the channel!!

Really hope the plume comes off!

[maidstone weather]

Really hope the plume comes off!

same - there is a magical air about August 6th :lol:

and Weather09, don't worry about the hotel, there'd be no time for sleeping!

[Paul Sherman]

same - there is a magical air about August 6th

and Weather09, don't worry about the hotel, there'd be no time for sleeping! :lol:

Certainly Is - It's the Wifes Birthday

[maidstone weather]

I'm interested to see where this thundery rain the Met Office speak about in their warning is? Not one sferic on the stuff! :lol:

yet another classic Met Office moment!

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Yep - Tis a strange one this - Bit baffled meself as nothing looks like it will or should turn electrical.

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

methinks the MetO got the wrong region for thunder, sferics near Leicester from the torrential downpours there! :lol:

[dogs32]

we did have a torrential down pour here a few hrs ago...was very surprised..

It was Only brief without any thunder

Edited August 1, 2009 by dogs32

[sunny scunny]

Some torrential rain showing on the radar just to my south currently.

Chucking it down now.

Edited August 1, 2009 by sufc

[k66yla]

Just started raining hard here, are we likely to get any thunder?

[dave48]

GFS 12z pushes the instability a little further West with CZs all over the place for Thursday. I'm little more interested now since this time the wind direction would be a South-Easterly so the Midlands and parts of the West could benefit most, should the charts continue to shift the CAPE a little West.

One to watch out for as it's not just the SE that could be in with a chance for storms.

Yeah, more chance for other parts too now, shear is still amazing, well placed jet so still good severe and supercell potential.

[Harry]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Yep - Tis a strange one this - Bit baffled meself as nothing looks like it will or should turn electrical.

Paul S

I have to admit I am not THAT surprised - it has been rather warm/muggy all day today, if a little cloudy. The skies had that look earlier on of impending heavy rainfall. Admittedly, there isnt much around at the moment to get excited about, however there is a rather large clump of much heavier rain over N France at present which could provide some entertainment later...if we are lucky.

[Neilsouth]

Just had a rumble of thunder !

Was this expected ?

[Will storm]

Thunderstorm here, really wasn't expecting this :lol:

[tooby]

Hi all.

Had a thunderstorm here too in the last 20 mins.

6 flashes of lightening counted and shotgun thunder with 3 of them.

Very heavy rain also.

It was great!!

Nothing showing up on the radar overlay other than rain ...strange.

Edited August 1, 2009 by tooby

[maidstone weather]

Just had a rumble of thunder !

Was this expected ?

nice one :lol:

now back to reality

[Lady Macbeth]

Currently a very heavy thunderstorm in Lincoln - some of the thunder sounds like explosions. Sorry, really not very technical - not a hugely active storm but what there is, is really loud and scaring my cats! :lol:

[Summer of 76]

Very heavy rain here in Bedford, drains unable to cope with the water for a while also one clap of thunder.

[Harry]

I think it is fair to say the MetO have bathed themselves in glory yet again :lol:

The rain in the SE is pitiful, with the heavier stuff across France showing signs now of veering E away from us. The places where there is thundery rain is under no warning....

Even funnier, is that people are actually surprised their summer forecast was inaccurate - just look at the forecasts hours in advance!!

EDIT - Rain just getting heavier as I type, lol - though there is STILL no warning in place for the midlands/lincs area.

UPDATE - Wheeey!!! They have updated the warnings...while said areas have already flooded!!! Well done!! (sorry, I know it is very boring all of this MetO bashing - but seriously, do they play solitaire in two hour intervals while taking 1 min in between to update warnings...seriously!)

Edited August 1, 2009 by Harry

[sunny scunny]

Currently a very heavy thunderstorm in Lincoln - some of the thunder sounds like explosions. Sorry, really not very technical - not a hugely active storm but what there is, is really loud and scaring my cats!

That storm just missed my area, but a few showers to my west are approaching my area.

WOW the sky is getting VERY dark now :o

Edited August 1, 2009 by sufc