Model Output Discussion - Sunday 20:35--->

[snowmadchrisuk]

You've only gotta look at the amount of users online to know Winter could be back with a bang. Lets hope the 18z continues the trend and plays ball. I think Mr Sussex had better stock up on the prozac for the next few days, could have a few customers!

18z looks fine so far to me . If anything ridging slightly further north earlier than 12z if you compare chart to chart.

[SP1986]

Not a huge amount of difference up to 99 hours.

[SMU]

You've only gotta look at the amount of users online to know Winter could be back with a bang. Lets hope the 18z continues the trend and plays ball. I think Mr Sussex had better stock up on the prozac for the next few days, could have a few customers!

well the 18z is out to t126 now & the general pattern is almost identical as you would expect-

Its all about that second bout of WAA in the atlantic at 120 & the interaction around Eastern Greenland- in terms of what gets ejected east & can pressure fill behind it........

Pattern is ever so slightly further East around Iceland- but the WAA in the atlantic is slightly more accute & further west...

not sure where this is going...

Steve

Edited December 6, 2009 by Steve Murr

[mountain shadow]

Don't think I can recall seeing such amazing polar height rises so early in the season.

No doubt that substantial cold air will be pouring out of the Arctic, can we tap into it?

[Eugene]

What a sight for sore eyes, a lovely HP cell now looks a dead cert to bring settled rather cold conditions to the UK halting atlantic systems to our west, watch out for fog persisting all day on friday into the weekend giving colder temps than GFS suggests :o

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

In the summer the same people dissing these kind of charts now would be heralding them.

It's just great to get some settled weather after a very wet autumn.

[snowmadchrisuk]

well the 18z is out to t126 now & the general pattern is almost identical as you would expect-

Its all about that second bout of WAA in the atlantic at 120 & the interaction around Eastern Greenland- in terms of what gets ejected east & can pressure fill behind it........

Pattern is ever so slightly further East around Iceland- but the WAA in the atlantic is slightly more accute & further west...

not sure where this is going...

Steve

The trough is to far East it is pushing the high into Scandi instead of Greenland at +132 Low pressre to our south east should stop the high sinking though.

Edited December 6, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[winter watcher]

18z looking on par if not a slightly better run up to t99 hopefully this will be a belter actually to me it already speaks volumes WE STILL HAVE THE GENERAL TREND.

[mountain shadow]

Not much difference as I can see, this is FI from now..

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

[whitestuff]

I don't want to put a dampener on things, and there is no-one that loves cold and snow as much as I do, but, I remember this time last year we were in for something special and it came to nothing.

I hope we're not building outselves up for another fall.

[snowmadchrisuk]

just the 3 times?

Which ever way you look at it , 18z is not as good as the 12z , Everything is to far East and the deep cold ends up going into Europe. FI will be probably show everything to be alright in the end , but hope this eastward movement gets pushed back West in the morning. I still think we will get a cold spell , but 18z version would take longer.

[kold weather]

Run is not going to be as good as the 12z thats for sure, the upper high isn't nearly as far north. Still looking increasingly cold with the high present however.

[David-kig]

upto 162 doesnt look as cold at this stage

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z is a downgrade and will end up sinking.

Lets hope this isn't the start of a trend!

[winter watcher]

Very cold fi on the 18z me thinks to come. Out to t144 if anything the atlantic is even further west on this run and the 850 hpa air source (Cold Air) is a tad west aswell looking very good.

[Geordiesnow]

I think this run would probably of been similer to the UKMO but the shortwave stops any link up with the Arctic high. I also feel the UKMO don't pick up shortwaves as well as the GFS but the GFS tend to over do any shortwaves.

Tomorrow morning's model runs will be interesting, won't decide anything but could give us some clearer sign what might happen.

[pyrotech]

Difference this year is 3 main models all showing cold. This is set now for Europe, not yet for us, but each run that stays lik this is a step forward. NOAA mentioned the solar minimum last week when discussing winter forecast and expected an influence. Were a little unsure due to other climate effects like El Nino how much effect it would have.

I stick by my 80s winter mentioned in the summer and gfs is giving a very 80s look in its charts. I feel we will see a downgrade this week, as things progress.

however i also see a 50/50 of an upgrade in the 120hrs timeline taking us back to charts like we are seeing now. So a full rollercoaster coming up.

Edited December 6, 2009 by pyrotech

[cyclonic happiness]

Which ever way you look at it , 18z is not as good as the 12z , Everything is to far East and the deep cold ends up going into Europe. FI will be probably show everything to be alright in the end , but hope this eastward movement gets pushed back West in the morning. I still think we will get a cold spell , but 18z version would take longer.

I disagree, I think this setup is just as good so far as we will probably get a big inversion which would keep the CET down and get the ground nice and frozen for when the snow falls later in the run (in theory) we should be ok so long as the high doesn't sink, lack of a low over spain/france is a bit of a worry though.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Very cold fi on the 18z me thinks to come. Out to t144 if anything the atlantic is even further west on this run and the 850 hpa air source (Cold Air) is a tad west aswell looking very good.

Look again ... I can assure you it isn't further west , It is all further East by at least 500 miles at +180

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The low res may turn out ok but i didnt like the high res section.

Hopefully more like the ukmo/ecm in the morning.

[NorthantsSnow]

Painfully slow progress on this run but I have a feeling we may get there in the end? We'll see.

[clark3r]

18z is a downgrade and will end up sinking.

Lets hope this isn't the start of a trend!

here we go i maybe the high is going to get pushed further south on some of the coming runs! just to give us dry cold frosty weather but better than rain and mild!

[snowmadchrisuk]

I disagree, I think this setup is just as good so far as we will probably get a big inversion which would keep the CET down and get the ground nice and frozen for when the snow falls later in the run (in theory) we should be ok so long as the high doesn't sink, lack of a low over spain/france is a bit of a worry though.

Good if that is what you are looking for I Agree , and I don't think the high will sink as Happy days says , but I am looking for something that would give us some proper cold that is prolonged maybe a week or 2 .

EDIT : FI is great just as I thought , and to Happy days the high won't sink because of the under cutting to the south .

Edited December 6, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[reef]

Several posts have been deleted which add nothing to the discussion. Please keep to the topic of the models.

Thanks.

[Cloud 10]

A fairly sober run from the 18z tonight,certainly compared to the 12z!

Pretty much steady as she goes though.

[Mark Bayley]

All part of the chopping and changing over the coming days. Not as good as the other runs (ECM, UKMO, 12z GFS) but certainly not bad. High pressure close by bringing cold settled conditions. Wonder what the parallel will come out with. I don't see any need to be worried.

Looking forward to tomorrows runs