Cold Spell Discussion 5

[stewfox]

I'm up, too excited to sleep but I rely on everyone else for info as I don't understand the models well enough to comment! Looking forward to some snow in Kent if we're lucky!!!

Sorry OT mods...

Hope this run is a belter Steve!!!

I thought I was bad re 4am lamp post watching but that is only if the threat of snow is over head

To be up 120 hours BEFORE any chance of snow

Respect

[Solar Cycles]

8.30am Radio 5 Darren Bett Becoming colder over the weekend and even colder next week

It was only yesterday he was saying milder next week...... I'll get my coat!

[Tom Montalbano]

Plenty of snow for parts of Scotland, esp the east, on this run.

Regards,

Tom.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Decent enough run it has to be said, i'll worry about the details later but i think i might just start on the first easterly which has been upgraded in fairness.

Until we know if an easterly will happen on Sunday/Monday, the rest of the outlook is subject to change.

I agree with that - it would be good to get model agreement for the first part of next week first regarding the nature of the easterly. Everything else is conjecture atm

[kold weather]

Well the GFS has a good grip on the easterly flow and if anything the flow gains a slight ESE which would limit the modification that would occur over water and therefore would see us getting some very low maxes, I'd have though -1/2C's would be very possible in that set-up.

Also snow looks possible on the easterly that both the UKMO and the GFS have however exact details on the flows orientation is of course going to be vital.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The METO 3 to 5 update suggests that showers will turn 'sleety' in the SE on Monday. It is a fair assumption that this more wintry progression of the ppn will continue and snow showers will be evident by Tues as even colder air arrives.

I am not sure that the GFS or GEFS ensembles are going to be especially reliable in terms of predicting ppn in this particular pattern so any indication of low/neglible amounts doesn't mean much as afar as I am concerned. The significance within the context of the ECM would be greater - as this has high pressure much closer by. Even here though SE areas would see at least a little snow at some stage.

The snow risk then appears to transfer to the NE - but, again, much still depends upon the initial easterly itself.

[ChartViewer]

Hi Help needed,

I have monitoring the jet and the bits of energy from it which dictate flows and where colder

air is going to end up. But it keeps chopping, changing losing energy and changing track.

Could an expert here try to explain to me over the last few runs what the Jet is NOW showing

in the Models and how this is affecting the runs?

Thanks in advance

CV

[John Snow]

Yesterday was perhaps a bit too exciting from the models with predictions of 10ft drifts, several feet of lying snow, infrastructure in crisis and the like

Today is a dose of reality, still some areas might get several feet of lying snow but it is not the "Day After Tomorrow 2" that was forecast yesterday

[stewfox]

It would be bitter at T126hrs.

http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-1-126.png?6

http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-2-126.png?6

-12C uppers across England with snow about.

An amazing run at T120 you often didnt see that at T3840 !

Looks like It's coming home

Everyone seems to know the models

We have seen it all before

This time they just know They're so sure

I don't think we are going to

Throw it away

or that low will be blown away

But I know these models can play

GFS on the shirt

Easterly still gleaming

God 1979 30 Years of hurt

I Never stoppped me dreaming

So many jokes, so many jeers re FI and all that

But all those oh so nears

Wear you down

Through the modelling years

But I still see that

Easterly we had the

blizzard that scored

Yes looks like its coming home

Edited December 10, 2009 by stewfox

[Snowfan50]

HA Great song lyrics above.

[dogs32]

is this all over...sorry been realy busy with work havent had time to look in detail..

but the small bits im getting is its all over

[Methuselah]

An amazing run at T120 you often didnt see that at T3840 !

Looks like It's coming home

Everyone seems to know the models

We have seen it all before

This time they just know They're so sure

I don't think we are going to

Throw it away

or that low will be blown away

But I know these models can play

GFS on the shirt

Easterly still gleaming

God 1979 30 Years of hurt

I Never stoppped me dreaming

So many jokes, so many jeers re FI and all that

But all those oh so nears

Wear you down

Through the modelling years

But I still see that

Easterly we had the

blizzard that scored

Yes looks like its coming home

lol Stew...A bit 'FI' isn't it???

[FetchCB]

One thing I remember from the winters of 79 and 81 was the comments regarding the impact on the temperatures of the wind coming off the frozen fields of europe. Is this programmed into the models do you think?

I would also think that with the North Sea being so warm in comparison to those winter months that lake effect snow could be a real threat?

[dogs32]

just looked at the charts...seems to me its FAR from over..

infact heavy snow

correct me if Im wrong but why ARE SOME PEOPLE negative this morning about the snow...am I missing something

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[stewfox]

One thing I remember from the winters of 79 and 81 was the comments regarding the impact on the temperatures of the wind coming off the frozen fields of europe. Is this programmed into the models do you think?

I would also think that with the North Sea being so warm in comparison to those winter months that lake effect snow could be a real threat?

How much warmer is the North Sea this time around cf early Jan 79.

New years day Jan 1979 I help clear my gran frozen house she had stayed over Christmas. That was bitter

We have had a mild November , we talking 1 /2 c warmer North sea then ,then I guess ?

If we get real cold 850s then 'North sea effect snow'

Kind of snow that's easy to role into a snowman ? Heavy and wet ?

But if its very cold would it be dry ??

Any thoughts ??

Edited December 10, 2009 by stewfox

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I think the main problem is most people spend months, nae, years waiting for such charts to show themselves, and when they do, they spend the next weeks trying to find reasons why it won't happen. The irony is amazing.

[MR EXTREMES]

this is fantastic outlook.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Dec 2009 to Thursday 24 Dec 2009:

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 10 Dec 2009

whoop whoop.:cray:

[TEITS]

Excellent outlook from the Met O.

"It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[dogs32]

this is fantastic outlook.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Dec 2009 to Thursday 24 Dec 2009:

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 10 Dec 2009

just had some real good info from someone in the detail know how..

and its still could be VERY GOOD INDEED...but a few things need to come into place for a dead cert..

ROLL OUT THE Barrel

whoop whoop.:cray:

just had some real good info from someone in the detail know how..

and its still could be VERY GOOD INDEED...but a few things need to come into place fOR a dead cert..

ROLL OUT THE Barrel

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[stewfox]

HA Great song lyrics above.

Yes you write some lyrics down and next thing someone makes a song out of them

http://www.risa.co.uk/sla/song.php?songid=20127

[Paul Sherman]

Dont know if this is right but I heard a few days ago that the North Sea is 5c Warmer than the Jan'87 event, which would mean some unbelievable Convection!

Remember as I am sure you all know the Sea is at it's warmest during September and October and not the Summer Months due to the warming over the summer months, hence the coldest period in the North Sea will be Feb/Mar and April!

Paul S

[phil nw.]

just had some real good info from someone in the detail know how..

and its still could be VERY GOOD INDEED...but a few things need to come into place fOR a dead cert..

ROLL OUT THE Barrel

Could we get something like this?

http://www.weather.c...html?clip=10827

Some vids. of usa snow.

Edited December 10, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[SP1986]

For my location I expect this will be fairly benign, uninteresting experience. This particular spell in the GFS reliable timeframe seems to be hinting that in my location there'll be little in the way of notable frost and of course nothing in the way of snow.

FI is not a viable topic to talk about in terms of specifics so any major cold in the future is at the moment, theory

If we do follow the reliable timeframe it looks much better for those in the central/south for frost, and east for snow.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Dont know if this is right but I heard a few days ago that the North Sea is 5c Warmer than the Jan'87 event, which would mean some unbelievable Convection!

Remember as I am sure you all know the Sea is at it's warmest during September and October and not the Summer Months due to the warming over the summer months, hence the coldest period in the North Sea will be Feb/Mar and April!

Paul S

Yes I think that the Essex coast east and north east coastal areas could get buried in snow !

You could do well out of this Paul

Edited December 10, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

For my location I expect this will be fairly benign, uninteresting experience. This particular spell in the GFS reliable timeframe seems to be hinting that in my location there'll be little in the way of notable frost and of course nothing in the way of snow.

FI is not a viable topic to talk about in terms of specifics so any major cold in the future is at the moment, theory

If we do follow the reliable timeframe it looks much better for those in the central/south for frost, and east for snow.

Yup i think you are just about in one of the worst places Ste.

Its really a shame im also in the NW but i do quite well from an Easterly direction,that said its only 15 mins

in the car and im in huddersfield west yorkshire.

But as you say,you should see some pretty cold frosty weather which is nice for the time of year.

Merseyside/wirrall is really a big snow dome unless its a polar NW wind.