Model Chat And Moods

[Frosty.]

Inspired by the recent model outputs i was decided to look back at my weather log for 1963 Winter.

I then quickly compared my obs. to the chart archives and was surprised that some of the setups looked quite fragile for cold and snow yet they delivered, here is one example

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00219630116.gif

Is the block to the West sinking?cold air to the East,is it going south?doesn`t look too promising.Notice too no Greenland High in fact quite the opposite.

Yet,next day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630117.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00219630117.gif

The block builds North east and advects the cold air towards the UK.

My log shows i had 3hrs of snow in the middle of the day then a clearance by evening with a sharp frost setting in.

The 17th was a sub-zero day ,clear with a bitter East wind force 3-4.

What i am saying is all is not lost if the Greenland block does move off eventually.

As the 1963 Winter showed pressure towards Greenland was often low-after the initial first phase of cold in Dec.1963,go through the archives and you will see what i mean.

Somehow though the jet stayed South,like now,and the blocking kept popping up in the right places to give the cold air either from the North or East.

Very interesting phil,

That winter sure delivered but we are still waiting for all the explosive model potential to verify and it currently looks as though it will. :unsure:

[phil nw.]

Indeed Phil,there were several occasions throughout that memorable winter when mild looked odds on but never made it,I still have the Met Office charts from mid-december through to the end of february to remind me how great it was--can it really be 46 years?

Yes indeed Rollo,i was a mere 14yo,lol.

Had to look twice at some of those archive charts.We were so lucky to stay cold when you see the sypnotics on some of those days.

I seem to remember a partial 24hrs thaw near the end of Jan.then the cold hit back with a vengance.

I wish we could compare the telecon. signals we have now with those that year just to know if this pattern would possibly be anything like that again.

Very interesting phil,

That winter sure delivered but we are still waiting for all the explosive model potential to verify and it currently looks as though it will.

Hi Frosty,

Yes it was special and i was the right age to enjoy it.

This current pattern is very similar to that at it`s begining but we can only hope that at least we get a week or 2 similar.It would be good to see if we can still have something like a classic cold spell.

My post really was too show that with the right pattern, cold can stay around even when the sypotics don`t always look anything special.

The first stage is about to start which is to get the cold embeded.

Edited December 13, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

May I make a suggestion to prevent any bickering on this thread.

Due to the synoptic pattern at the end of the week there are bound to be cases where a model run might be a downgrade for your region but an upgrade for others.

With this in mind if you feel the latest model run is a downgrade please state whether you're referring to your location or the whole of the UK. This will helps others who might be confused.

Good point Dave. I'm supposed to be travelling to Swansea on 20th to take 4 yr old lad to see his Grandparents pre Christmas....do you think I'll be postponing????

Fred BFTP

[Harsh Climate]

Hi Jed,

I take your point completely, but all we can go by is the facts given to us from the NWP output at the moment. And that output is generally conductive of snowfall for a large part of the UK, with sub 528 DAM and -5c 850's widely (colder the further east you head) being predicted.

There is every chance that something such as Dews, Temps etc may not play ball but we wont know that until nearer the time (along with potential warm sectors). However at present some of the gloom on here is simply not justified. Everybody is of course entitled to an opinion however you need something to back that opinion up....presently I just see no evidence to back up a claim of this easterly suddenly being awful!

Kind Regards

SK

Hi, ye there certainly will be some snowfall around next week and some of it perhaps heavy. But I think inbetween the snowfalls to lower levels, it should thaw as each of these disturbances/shortwaves that bring the snow in will have mild sectors associated with them. Far from the classic that looked possible a few days ago..

Edited December 13, 2009 by Jed Bickerdike

[weather eater]

I don’t think anyone should be finding fault with the model outputs today, yes the models have moved on from what they were showing a few days ago, but that’s to be expected. What has changed is peoples satisfaction with those model outputs, what people must understand is that even the experts can only comment on what’s before them. Most of the knowledgeable people do a fantastic job of providing detailed analysis of the model runs, both the positives and the negatives, unfortunately there are many members who, IMO selectively read those posts, they take out of them what they want to hear, and forget the rest, when the synoptcs evolve differently and the model runs start to pick up on that, then we get the recriminations. Please read what the likes of SM, JH and GP in particular say, and try to take in the whole of what they are trying to say, not just the bits you want to hear. There are several others with good information to impart KW, NS, NSC, and TEITS to name a few but avoid those who may sound knowledgeable but have an obvious bias towards certain weather types, some of these get a lot of credit just by saying what people want to hear often with no intention on their part to mislead.

My apologies for banging on about this but it really is frustrating to somebody trying to learn more.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I have a feeling the severist weather might actually happen oop North.Scotland in particular looks in the firing

line for a artic northerly.

Dont get me wrong,anywhere could see snow.

The more likely places to miss out at the moment would probably be the SW of England and maybe wales and the far west .

Thats subject to changes but anywhere East north or south east its bingo.

[tinybill]

gfs O6Z rn HAS shifted toward the Euros.I watched frame by frame on meteociel and the differences between 00z and 06z

were noticeable at the key T mark.

Although i am a keen amateur ive seen enough evidence now to say the Beast is coming.I feel some Eastern and

South East districts could well get hammered Thur/Fr.

I hope this thread doesn't start with the regional bias's as i live in the North West and probably wont see

a great deal if any snow.

I'm really chuffed for those in the east and south east though.I remember they didn't get much last winter when i had

lying snow for about 7 to 10 days so good luck you gys i hope you get a winter wonderland at the end of the week.

And i think you will.

Enjoy!

i cant wait for the beast to come so early in the season ,after Friday it can do wot it like I'm on holiday for 2 weeks hopefully in the snow!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

Hi, ye there certainly will be some snowfall around next week and some of it perhaps heavy. But I think inbetween the snowfalls to lower levels, it should thaw as each of these disturbances/shortwaves that bring the snow in will have mild sectors associated with them. Far from the classic that looked possible a few days ago..

all recent models have suggest snowfall around the country im sure ecm is in party mood,

as for warm sectors and this not being classic wait and see would be my answer.

i get the feeling your quick to playdown whats being predicted for what ever reason.

this winter let alone this spell is very exciting and because im not a expert with this i get confused,

we have some very experienced people in here that talk positive about this event then we get negitive comments,

because from what im reading its very positive am i right?

[Harsh Climate]

all recent models have suggest snowfall around the country im sure ecm is in party mood,

as for warm sectors and this not being classic wait and see would be my answer.

i get the feeling your quick to playdown whats being predicted for what ever reason.

this winter let alone this spell is very exciting and because im not a expert with this i get confused,

we have some very experienced people in here that talk positive about this event then we get negitive comments,

because from what im reading its very positive am i right?

hi, i just think things are looking less favourable than they once did, no real cold pools really seem to make it, no decent easterly (except for south east maybe) and some sort of breakdown is looking more likely the nearer we get to the event.

If the gfs had backed down signifcantly and looked more like the ecm I would be saying were back on track. But I just think things are falling into place now and this MAY be a typical cold spell instead of something more significant.

Apart from that, there is still room for upgrades and I will certainly enjoy a cold spell no matter how severe or snowy it is/isnt. One major upgrade may be around the corner and that would be for no breakdown to make it, then like I said earyier we will have a massive platform for the rest of winter and this cold spell will have been usefull in shaping winter.

[dallas]

The 12z is a massive upgrade for Tuesday in the Midlands, Net weather forecasts have a max of 0 , heavy ppn 525 dam and the little icons actually forecast snow. Wednesday is showing as an ice day with temps below freezing all day . Very impressed with the short term potential .

Chris

Yep Sat and Sun look really cold, couple of ice days are good building blocks should the models start showing the PV getting closer

[tinybill]

hi, i just think things are looking less favourable than they once did, no real cold pools really seem to make it, no decent easterly (except for south east maybe) and some sort of breakdown is looking more likely the nearer we get to the event.

If the gfs had backed down signifcantly and looked more like the ecm I would be saying were back on track. But I just think things are falling into place now and this MAY be a typical cold spell instead of something more significant.

Apart from that, there is still room for upgrades and I will certainly enjoy a cold spell no matter how severe or snowy it is/isnt. One major upgrade may be around the corner and that would be for no breakdown to make it, then like I said earyier we will have a massive platform for the rest of winter and this cold spell will have been usefull in shaping winter.

just a repost mr data put else were this for x mas day plus just looking after xmas day the gfs is saying it could easy get worse!!!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

just a repost mr data put else were this for x mas day plus just looking after xmas day the gfs is saying it could easy get worse!!!!!

The GFS seems interesting for here on Wednesday with a more prolonged spell of snow possible for the Midlands. However precpitation wise, it shouldnt really be looked at until tomorrow or Tuesday i think.

[Damp and dreary]

Latest runs seems to have the cold arrivng quicker for my area, still cant beleive we have great model runs and its only December!

Be helpful if you put where you are in your profile my friend!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Whilst i am fully aware this is 6 days out this chart has made my day;

*bear in mind though the temp chart is the minimum temps, maximum temps are still widley at 0 or 1*

SLEDGES AT THE READY from the gfs for saturday

SNOW-MAN2006

Edited December 13, 2009 by SNOW-MAN2006

[phil nw.]

hi, i just think things are looking less favourable than they once did, no real cold pools really seem to make it, no decent easterly (except for south east maybe) and some sort of breakdown is looking more likely the nearer we get to the event.

If the gfs had backed down signifcantly and looked more like the ecm I would be saying were back on track. But I just think things are falling into place now and this MAY be a typical cold spell instead of something more significant.

Apart from that, there is still room for upgrades and I will certainly enjoy a cold spell no matter how severe or snowy it is/isnt. One major upgrade may be around the corner and that would be for no breakdown to make it, then like I said earyier we will have a massive platform for the rest of winter and this cold spell will have been usefull in shaping winter.

Hi Jed,

You appear to be judging the strength of the Easterly on every run and if you do this you will get different ideas.

Untill around 24-36hrs. they will not firm up on chances of Snowfall details.

Please listen to advice from the experienced posters- wait and see until nearer the time.

By all means give your views but instead of speculating try to state facts and link some charts to your points.

Otherwise you are going to tie yourself in knots and annoy posters who try to discuss things logically.

Edited December 13, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Whilst i am fully aware this is 6 days out this chart has made my day;

*bear in mind though the temp chart is the minimum temps, maximum temps are still widley at 0 or 1*

SLEDGES AT THE READY from the gfs for saturday

SNOW-MAN2006

Yes, amazing chart for anyone north of Leeds on Saturday, would undoubtedly be sledging time if it came off!!

I just hope the atlantic doesn't roar back to spoil christmas as some of the models have been showing - I'd be very happy with just a cold settled spell of weather xmas-new year, especially if there is snow cover and the cold spell would continue into the new year. Hopecasting at it's worst there but I am very optmistic about the coming week.

LS

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

ECM rolling out now, anything similar to the 00z would be terrific

[karyo]

Here's comes the ECM, don't less us down now...

Not so keen on the ECM at 96 hours: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0

It just sinks the low south over Germany rather than southwest which is bad news for the easterly!

Karyo

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

O dear, as i thought earlier and got shot down for it the ecm is going the way of the GFS.

This is a seriously bad episode for the ecm!

[Geordiesnow]

Not so keen on the ECM at 96 hours: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0

It just sinks the low south over Germany rather than southwest which is bad news for the easterly!

Karyo

Yep, certainly looks more like the GFS runs it has to be said which in fairness, the GFS has been quite consistent.

It will be interesting what those who were saying the ECM was right will say about this run regarding the easterly.

[on the coast]

Well 120hr on the ECM is a total suprise. Wasnt expecting that? Big change coming maybe.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

LOL I cant believe what im seeing here.

ECM had backtracked on the oz run by a huge margin.

[Duane S.]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

O dear, as i thought earlier and got shot down for it the ecm is going the way of the GFS.

This is a seriously bad episode for the ecm!

Calm down, it seems every time something doesn't go quite right in your eyes, off you go...

It is only one run, it certainly doesn't look as good as the 00z but then that was a cracker. Decent GFS, very good METO and no this is not a 'seriously bad episode for the ECM'. Get some perspective for once Jed.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well ecm is NOT showing a cutting Easterly like it was this morning.

I wonder if the pro's might have jumped the gun here with that week ahead forecast?

The cold stuff just head south.

Edited December 13, 2009 by happy days

[karyo]

Well ecm is NOPT showing a cutting Easterly like it was this morning.

I wonder if the pro's might have jumped the gun here with that week ahead forecast?

The cold stuff just head south.

I am also very disappointed with the look of the ECM so far,up to 120hours! It would be easy to say it is having another wobble but we are talking about the reliable timeframe now...

Karyo