East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Whether Idle]

Good evening

I have scanned the charts for Friday and the UKMO is alone in not suggesting much precipitation. ECM, GFS, GEM, GME, NOGAPS all suggest trough/ mini low related rain/sleet/snow from Friday 0000 through to midday Saturday in some parts, most models have a window of 24 hours, some 36 for trough related/ convectional snowfall.

There are 3 factors to bear in mind:

1. Altitude is king in terms of getting snow rather than sleet and then retaining a layer. Even 100m makes a huge difference in these marginal set ups.

2. On the coast rain/sleet is a real risk unless uppers (850s) reach -9c, but distance of as little as 3/4 miles from the coast is enough to turn it back to snow.

3. Snow amounts - impossible to say at this stage, but some places locally will get a lot more than others.

Health warning - other than suggesting the North Downs and High Weald and Chilterns are the obvious places to benefit most, I would caution that now, at a distance of 96 hours indications are favourable, but speaking from experience, once youre within 24 hours of t0, thats the time to start paying attention to forecasts of snow, much better within 6 hours, so start to listen out from Thursday morning, if things are still looking good in 60 hours time...

Exciting times ahead. I will provide a forecast on Weds pm if the window of opportunity is still in the charts within 48 hours.

Whether Idle

Edited December 14, 2009 by Whether Idle

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

So is there actually any snow falling anywhere at the moment? Nothing going on for us Midlanders.

Too right you were, Jet aren't a bad band at all.

What I'm curious to know is why I haven't seen mention of this in our Model forum.

[runboy]

For someone who has picked up this thread at page 11, is there anyone who can do a quick summary for someone (me at least) who lives in Norfolk and wants some.....SNOWWWWWWWWWWW?

[Coast]

I'm just watching a couple of recently recorded programmes of Ice Road Truckers, to get myself ready for driving to work on Friday....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

For someone who has picked up this thread at page 11, is there anyone who can do a quick summary for someone (me at least) who lives in Norfolk and wants some.....SNOWWWWWWWWWWW?

Our most likely slot for snow is from Thursday to Saturday; however, not all models agree.

[Summer of 76]

I'm just watching a couple of recently recorded programmes of Ice Road Truckers, to get myself ready for driving to work on Friday....

That must be a time machine picture of the M1 on Saturday morning

[runboy]

Our most likely slot for snow is from Thursday to Saturday; however, not all models agree.

Thanks - and not wanting to sound greedy, is that it?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Thanks - and not wanting to sound greedy, is that it?

Possibly, unless we get something blown in on the Northerly that could develop from Saturday onwards, but that's a big if.

[bunny1972]

Possibly, unless we get something blown in on the Northerly that could develop from Saturday onwards, but that's a big if.

so how much snow you forecasting for our region im saying we wont get any laying snow!!

[andy_leics22]

Thanks - and not wanting to sound greedy, is that it?

See, I thought this was a huge downgrade from what was predicted at the end of last week but people think i'm being picky I did expect more than a few snow showers. The models were ramping it up big style on Thursday, Friday and Saturday last week and we all fell for it AGAIN!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

so how much snow you forecasting for our region im saying we wont get any laying snow!!

Sorry, I'm still new to model reading, and, according to John Holmes and other forecasters here, that detail won't be clear for each little area until a few hours before it's supposed to happen.

[bunny1972]

Sorry, I'm still new to model reading, and, according to John Holmes and other forecasters here, that detail won't be clear for each little area until a few hours before it's supposed to happen.

cool well i hope your right and im wrong sure we will find out in days to come

[Jan_Bromley]

weather on BBC1 is saying, "dont forget, snow can show up almost anywhere as their are fronts that will pop up antwhere. Potential for Friday is for a big snow event"

They really cant afford to be any more specific than that. they know the general idea but the specifics will go to the wire.

It must be a nightmare to forecast this week

[Met4Cast]

Its clear just how uncertain the BBC are on Fridays potential. An hour ago they showed snow for London, and in their latest forecast just now they were showing sleet. It seems to change with each forecast.

[Essexgooner]

I'm just watching a couple of recently recorded programmes of Ice Road Truckers, to get myself ready for driving to work on Friday....

lol

[winter watcher]

Evening All

I think what some are tending to forget is that this is very likely to be a severe and very lengthy cold spell. I just spoke with Fred = BFTP and he said two to three weeks which is brilliant from Wednesday or Thursday onwards which i fully agree on some on here just keep banging on about this week and i agree good potential here. But what people should not forget is that it is only the beginning this spell off extreme cold could well last up to and beyond Christmas folks so there would be ample time and opportunity to see snow just be a bit patient guys. This is a once in 20 year event and i for one am just sitting back and chilling waiting for the snow to arrive and when it does it will get worse from then on in. MERRY CHRISTMAS ONE AND ALL :lol: :lol:

[Jan_Bromley]

Absolutely Winter watcher, and a very merry christmas to you too

[Ben_Cambs]

Echoes of February 1991 seem to be ringing about...

[Neilsouth]

See, I thought this was a huge downgrade from what was predicted at the end of last week but people think i'm being picky I did expect more than a few snow showers. The models were ramping it up big style on Thursday, Friday and Saturday last week and we all fell for it AGAIN!

I didn't ! , i told everyone........ :lol:

[TEITS]

Its clear just how uncertain the BBC are on Fridays potential. An hour ago they showed snow for London, and in their latest forecast just now they were showing sleet. It seems to change with each forecast.

I just watched the latest live forecast on BBC News 24 and Alex Deakin warned of signficant snow on Friday.

Remember the latest fax chart for +96 will be updated around 22.00 tonight.

[Jan_Bromley]

There are going to be troughs and lows all in the mix. They will pop up out of nowhere in this situation. Have faith

[Paul Sherman]

Wonderfully clear and starry night here now but the temp is still 4c.

Wonder if we will get a frost tonight ?

Paul S

[Coast]

I think what some are tending to forget is that this is very likely to be a severe and very lengthy cold spell.

Of course, in that eventuality, we may all start to look at this weather spell in a different way. When the fun of the first sledge rides, snowmen and snowball fight wears off, the reality of disrupted or even canceled transport links, shops emptying, old and infirm folks not getting out and about etc etc, may put a whole different complexion on things.

Lets hope if it is big, UK PLC and the infrastructure can cope!

[Jan_Bromley]

Same here Paul. 4c clear skies. beeb said down to 2c because of cloud. What cloud???

[Leigh]

What on earth is going on. I dont really understand the charts, but some people say its a downgrade, others say its the best we have seen in years. I am totally confused . Any help will be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Sorry mods if this is in the wrong place.