Welsh Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowmadsam]

Derek just said there is a risk of some snow on the weekend

Lets hope it will continue as well!!

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowmadsam

[worldairgroup]

maybe off topic but - just noticed metoffice has changed their early warning of severe weather, earlier today it was only for north wales and scotland for Friday, now its changed to Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Wales gets a mention, allbeit North Wales!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

72 hour Fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

Cold front coming down and 528 thickness line is covering most the UK which is good in terms of snowfall.

So thats quite positive i would say, lets see how this develops we really want to see them dewpoint values go below 0C.

[swales]

Fax is a a positive so great.

Just those Dew's as mentioned.

[Barb]

72 hour Fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

Cold front coming down and 528 thickness line is covering most the UK which is good in terms of snowfall.

So thats quite positive i would say, lets see how this develops we really want to see them dewpoint values go below 0C.

I think we'll be OK for snow falling, the question is how much. The amount has been downgraded a lot in the past few runs, hopefully it can beef up a bit again.

[pyrotech]

I don't expect cardiff will see much in the way of snow today but during the weekend god only knows, I personally disagree with your south Wales comment mate. Where i Live we always do very Well in North Westerlies have a saying in Welsh here

Pan ddaw Gogledd-orllewin wynt

Sicrhewch iddo greu helynt

(When a North West Wind comes, Its certain to cause problems)

And this is very true for my part of south Wales.

Yes great for South West and west Wales but South east wales can be hit or miss

[J10]

The latest Mets advisory illustrates exactly waht I was saying about the chances of southern Wales in a NW'erly...it needs more of a northerly element to it to drive the showers down the Irish Sea or north to south through the country.

If the wind direction is as forecast, plenty of showers are likely, my experience tells me that. and most of them will be of snow.

Of the frequent heavy snow from NW winds, quite a few were under forecasted by the Met Office before hand.

[worldairgroup]

latest weather for you in pontypridd 4 C, light drizzle persistent

[J10]

72 hour Fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

Cold front coming down and 528 thickness line is covering most the UK which is good in terms of snowfall.

So thats quite positive i would say, lets see how this develops we really want to see them dewpoint values go below 0C.

That Fax chart is an upgrade from previous day, as the warm sector is further west. To my mind there has been no downgrade at all for snow potential over the weekend.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif This is yesterdays fax chart for Saturday.

Of course it still not inconceivable that there will be some snow here before then.

Into FI but an interesting charts for Christmas day.

[Snowyowl9]

A straight north wind usually means a dry day here,maybe a rogue snow shower.

As saturday does look very much NW-ly but looks like anywhere will see snow showers with fronts coming down also.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif

Edited December 16, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Snowmadsam]

That Fax chart is an upgrade from previous day, as the warm sector is further west. To my mind there has been no downgrade at all for snow potential over the weekend.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif This is yesterdays fax chart for Saturday.

Of course it still not inconceivable that there will be some snow here before then.

Into FI but an interesting charts for Christmas day.

Would we get a covering from that chart on xmas day in FI?

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowmadsam

[J10]

Would we get a covering from that chart on xmas day in FI?

According to that yes, but on reflection the NW snow guide is less bullish about snow chance. To be honest the end of the cold spell is not set in stone.

[benb]

Well, I'm quietly confident about the snow prospects for the weekend here in Carmarthenshire. Compared to the conditions last Feb (at least a level six inches, minor drifting and snow in the garden for nearly two weeks) , the synoptics look even more impressive this time round - lower 850s, better sourcing of air and much more precipitation forecast.

Obviously the major negative is the sea temp due to the mild autumn. It'll be interesting to see what transpires. Here's hoping for a snowy few days.

I've got a static caravan in Abersoch booked for Tues/Weds nights next week. Anybody hazard a guess to conditions? I'm supposed to be surfing, would I be better taking my skis?

[Cymro]

Well, I'm quietly confident about the snow prospects for the weekend here in Carmarthenshire. Compared to the conditions last Feb (at least a level six inches, minor drifting and snow in the garden for nearly two weeks) , the synoptics look even more impressive this time round - lower 850s, better sourcing of air and much more precipitation forecast.

Obviously the major negative is the sea temp due to the mild autumn. It'll be interesting to see what transpires. Here's hoping for a snowy few days.

I've got a static caravan in Abersoch booked for Tues/Weds nights next week. Anybody hazard a guess to conditions? I'm supposed to be surfing, would I be better taking my skis?

Haha lico dy steil di Gobeithio taw Sgïo bydd yr ateb ond gyda'r tywydd yn newid trwy'r amser pwy a ŵyr.

Haha like your style Hope that you will be skiing but with the weather changing all the time who knows.

[Marcus_surfer]

Well, I'm quietly confident about the snow prospects for the weekend here in Carmarthenshire. Compared to the conditions last Feb (at least a level six inches, minor drifting and snow in the garden for nearly two weeks) , the synoptics look even more impressive this time round - lower 850s, better sourcing of air and much more precipitation forecast.

Obviously the major negative is the sea temp due to the mild autumn. It'll be interesting to see what transpires. Here's hoping for a snowy few days.

I've got a static caravan in Abersoch booked for Tues/Weds nights next week. Anybody hazard a guess to conditions? I'm supposed to be surfing, would I be better taking my skis?

Surfing? thats great! might not be much surf around though because of this high pressure, water temperatures are actually not at their coldest yet, but it's not very nice to surf in sub-zero air temperatures!

[Cymro]

Braf gweld bach mwy o fywyd yn y Seiat Gymreig

Nice to see some more life in the Welsh thread hehe

[benb]

Cheers for replies guys!

Fingers crossed for the 18z.

[keithlucky]

If the wind direction is as forecast, plenty of showers are likely, my experience tells me that. and most of them will be of snow.

Of the frequent heavy snow from NW winds, quite a few were under forecasted by the Met Office before hand.

Excellent point they allways talk about thames streamers but when we get nw wind we get our irish sea streamers which are often more potent than the met say.

[worldairgroup]

more short term the NTW snow risk charts are showing very interesting activity for South East and West Wales for Saturday 9am thru 3am sunday. More or less constant activity of snow. Comments anyone? New to this so someone with more experience who may be able to explain this better - fire away!

[Barb]

Well the warm seas can be a double edged sword - one one hand they mean milder air but on the other more precipitation. If it's cold enough mild seas are good good.

[Snowmadsam]

Already getting snow cover at my area at 21 hours

1cm is this a covering?

[Cymro]

Couldn't agree more much is bigged up about the thames streamers etc, I have my own streamer i like to Call it the Carmarthen Bay effect. It feeds a mountain of showers this way they rarley get further though because of the mountains but being on the edge of the Beacons has its advantages in that case we normally catch the tail end of it. Same with flurries from the east because we are in the South west yet right on the boundry with the South east we always pick up flurries on an east wind.

[swales]

Already getting snow cover at my area at 21 hours

1cm is this a covering?

I wouldn't bother too much with Snow depth. The only way your going to find out is when the time comes.

[J10]

Of all the charts on NW Extra, I think that is the least accurate chart on there. Personally I don't use it.

[benb]

Well, early stages but so far the 18z is up to its usual bedtime dream scenario- Northerly arriving quicker and more forcefully, warm sector further west and more precipitation. Hope it plays out like this!

And then a good ole NWerly pushing those showers inland.