Welsh Cold Spell Discussion

[keithlucky]

Already getting snow cover at my area at 21 hours

1cm is this a covering?

Where you live?

[Snowmadsam]

By the preseli hills 300m asl

[keithlucky]

By the preseli hills 300m asl

Snowing now?

[Snowmadsam]

no it did sleet earlier though

[Barb]

How about this fellow Welshmen and women:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Not a bad 18Z it gives us some snow showers on Saturday:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Then the front comes down later in the day:

So whats it going to be of Rain, Sleet or Snow?

Looking at the dewpoints and they arnt to bad- Costal areas of South Wales might be to high though at first:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs728.gif

However they do drop as shown here:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs758.gif

I would say most of Wales seeing a spell of snow clearing south Saturday night, this mostly of rain to the costal areas of South Wales however even here at the backedge this could turn to snow for a time as dewpoints drop away and even colder 850hpa (upper air) temps dig in.

All subject to change of course

[J10]

Even though the snow may turn to rain, that chart may give some very heavy snowfalls and given where er are indirection of the low, this is very good news. Even thoguh milder air would come into the flow, we would still be having winds from the N/NE and ground temperatures are likely to be very low, especially if there is snow cover in the Midlands/ N England at that time. However this is clearly in FI, but this does show that a breakdown could be snowy, IF we are on the North East of any front pushing up from the south.

Happy with this weekends charts, good chance of heavy snow showers both overnight into Saturday and Sunday,but personally would still prefer a clear NW flow with showers, rather than the Low pressure which may not all be of snow.

Might be better if we can get a clear night on Thursday and have a severe frost to really lowers the ground temps before Saturday.

[djwayne]

Shame to see meto dont share the same confidence for us in wales the only warning they have out for us is sun for north wales only seems a bit weird after looking at the charts (atlthough i am a not very knowledgeable where these things are concerned). Would be nice for someone else to shed some light on the 18z with regards to wales

[Barb]

This is worth watching too, a band of precip coming in from the West for Sunday night/Monday morning - it wasn't on previous runs. A little bit further North and significant snow for S. Wales perhaps. A bit more interest in the 18z, it's probably been on the gin though.

[swales]

I think the 18z has been quite good... although Saturday night I'm expecting rain initially until Dew's drop. Who knows, maybe dew's will get down in time... wishful thinking again

[Marcus_surfer]

A great forecast tonight from Rob on BBC 1, but what i don't understand is that why didn't we see the full forecast like normal? He just focused on the Snow affecting SE England! He didn't even say the lows for Thursday night. Although he did say Monday could bring more snow

[Cymro]

Forever the Pesimist Shaun

[pyrotech]

18z is a great run for South wales. If i could bag it i would.

The low clipping Northwards in Fi is a classic blizzard situation and if that did come off we could see some disruption. But it Fi and could change.

The best news is that the cold spell is being prolonged by GFS again and there are oportunities for the whole of Wales to see some snow.

Weather warnings from Meto are the best sign and north wales has that, hopefully that will extend southwards as we approach the weekend.

The thickness is perfect, 850 and surface temps great, just a little patience and hopefully the percipitation will join in to give us some white stuff.

Really its pretty short notice with the prcipitation and even thursdays showrs could get a little further west and shock a few areas, although probably be slight if they do.

Severn estary might have an effect just pep the showers up again, but that really is clutching at straws.

For Jay in Cardiff who asked almost hourly last year " will it snow in Cardiff? " - jay i think you got about 80% chance of seeing snow in next 5 days. after that its Fi and i will try to update you.

Well hope you all get some snow and the cold is here from tonight with a little jack frost in places by dawn.

good night

[Cymro]

Sleet and snow showing on the radar for Wales now cold air coming in a little quicker maybe?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I wonder if the metoffice will put out advisories for much of Wales tomorrow for Heavy Snow showers on Saturday/Sunday, wishful thinking though.

[J10]

NW Extra have better charts listing the Dewpoints at any given time.

With the lower dewpoints pushing south later in teh day to cover Wales. However please note that Dewpoint forecasts are based on 2m temps and the GFS has a habit of over estimating these in coastal areas.

I wonder if the metoffice will put out advisories for much of Wales tomorrow for Heavy Snow showers on Saturday/Sunday, wishful thinking though.

They should do, but whether they actually do is another matter.

[Cymro]

NW Extra have better charts listing the Dewpoints at any given time.

With the lower dewpoints pushing south later in teh day to cover Wales. However please note that Dewpoint forecasts are based on 2m temps and the GFS has a habit of over estimating these in coastal areas.

They should do, but whether they actually do is another matter.

The Met office is an acronym for

Massively England taken over office, Anglo centric to be fair on the English its London centric actually and everywhere else doesn't get a look in.

[swales]

The Met office is an acronym for

Massively England taken over office, Anglo centric to be fair on the English its London centric actually and everywhere else doesn't get a look in.

here here...

Anyway... unless I find another pointless reason to post again tonight... Good night all.

Let's hope for good models tomorrow, and I wish you all luck for your first taste of winter.

[Cymro]

here here...

Anyway... unless I find another pointless reason to post again tonight... Good night all.

Let's hope for good models tomorrow, and I wish you all luck for your first taste of winter.

Nos da

[Jamie.]

BBC have forecast milder temps (7C) for Monday.

Ugh. Mind you, I can only trust the Website 1 day before as it changes regularly and they seem to only get the next Days weather correct .

[Cymro]

BBC have forecast milder temps (7C) for Monday.

Ugh. Mind you, I can only trust the Website 1 day before as it changes regularly and they seem to only get the next Days weather correct .

Mae nhw ffaelu hyd yn oed gwneud hynny'n iawn gan amla

They can't even get that right most of the time

[worldairgroup]

stopped drizzling here and now 0 degrees C. lets hope the ground gets dry and tomorrow brings better hope. seen other charts showing significant snow still for south wales - saturday being the main thing to look for. being a newbie though, it seems its the charts which change i need to look at. i am just crossing fingers!

good night all.

[Marcus_surfer]

The Met office is an acronym for

Massively England taken over office, Anglo centric to be fair on the English its London centric actually and everywhere else doesn't get a look in.

Thats very true

[Cymro]

None of the forecast look as promising as yesterday where as all the precipitation gone? Massive Let DOWN

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Fax chart 60H:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax60s.gif

Looks simular to me snow showers Sat/Sun with the front coming down from the North later Saturday.

We can see from the fax chart the 528 DAM line is close and just about over most of Wales at 60h perhaps starting as rain for some before changing back to snow.

Keep an eye on the metoffice updates today and these fax charts...they become the most useful tool at this range