General Model Output Discussion

[Eugene]

Looks cold until christmas day at least and the other models tonight are slightly better than GFS 12Z which luckily was one of the mildest runs in FI BUT we really need those secondary lows next week to swing as far south as possible like JMA 12Z shows and for northerly blocking to push southwards stronger, if both of those things don't occur we`ll be stuck in an atlantic average to mild flow for a week at least after christmas as northerly blocking will be slightly too far north and just keep us stuck under a milder pattern.

[Frosty.]

It's such a shame - there's such a huge easterly just a few hundred miles to the N!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Yes it's a pity, the ENE'ly from Norway across to Iceland looks wonderful.

[wellington boot]

The AO (arctic oscillation) ensembles are just flatlining at the moment,never seen that before.

Also an interesting chart for christmas day from tonights ecm!

Maybe we should be looking to the north/east again in the longer term.

That is astonishing isn't it. It's off the chart, and showing no sign of climbing back up again. Long may it continue. That might be the key to a reset at some point.

[Bristawl Si]

The temps are a little colder than normal for this time of the year here in the West, but nothing exceptional.

Would any of the 'experts' on the forum like to say why there's been a relative downgrade for now and into the weekend since the models were showing, say, a few days ago?

Even the more insightful and knowledgeable guys on here were predicting a cold, snowy spell not seen in the UK for December, since Dec 81, but to be fair it's just a cold and damp period here in the West (and yes, i realise the East was always expected to get the major stuff).

The models seem to be predicting the end of this cool spell, before any real cold has started.

[mcweather]

To be honest I think what the ECM is showing tonight is not the slowing down of the Atlantic coming in but the birth of the next cold spell.

tonights ECM is very reminiscent of the christmas period during the winter of 78/79. Take a look at the GFS kartenarchive and spot the trend.

[J10]

The temps are a little colder than normal for this time of the year here in the West, but nothing exceptional.

Would any of the 'experts' on the forum like to say why there's been a relative downgrade for now and into the weekend since the models were showing, say, a few days ago?

Even the more insightful and knowledgeable guys on here were predicting a cold, snowy spell not seen in the UK for December, since Dec 81, but to be fair it's just a cold and damp period here in the West (and yes, i realise the East was always expected to get the major stuff).

The models seem to be predicting the end of this cool spell, before any real cold has started.

To be fair, there already has been snow in many areas, including in Wales, with some heavy snow in Brecon/Merthyr, the end of the cold is not decided, and may still last another week.

[Bristawl Si]

Bristol, you will get snow tonight, tomorrow and prob sat and sun.. not sure what you are complaining about!?

OK. I'll keep an eye out for that forecast tonight, because i haven't seen one yet. The Beeb at 18:57 was showing nothing for here for next 3 days.

Sorry to upset some people on here, but the models really are only trustworthy up to 48 hours in my view and i've been following on here for a few years now.

[nick sussex]

The temps are a little colder than normal for this time of the year here in the West, but nothing exceptional.

Would any of the 'experts' on the forum like to say why there's been a relative downgrade for now and into the weekend since the models were showing, say, a few days ago?

Even the more insightful and knowledgeable guys on here were predicting a cold, snowy spell not seen in the UK for December, since Dec 81, but to be fair it's just a cold and damp period here in the West (and yes, i realise the East was always expected to get the major stuff).

The models seem to be predicting the end of this cool spell, before any real cold has started.

To be honest I don't think anyone was saying there was going to be a repeat of 81,some members may have made reference to previous colder episodes where low pressure tracks much further south than normal to the south of the UK. In terms of the models they did very well with the current pattern but i'm afraid too many people were following a few gfs runs which brought something a little colder in terms of upper air profiles.The models progged an easterly followed by a north to nw erly which is whats going to happen, the problem is no matter how many times I and others have said just look at the general pattern not the detail this is overlooked in the stampede to board the gfs train to eskimo central!

I think to call this a cool spell is a little dismissive considering that there are snow chances for at least the next 4 days, with probably some very low night time temps, i think your post is probably born out of some frustration which i can understand but as you said this pattern was always going to favour more eastern and se areas initially, there are still chances for snow in other areas especially over the weekend.

Edited December 17, 2009 by nick sussex

[Dingwantssnow]

Any one else getting missing model slides?

[casparjack]

The AO (arctic oscillation) ensembles are just flatlining at the moment,never seen that before.

Also an interesting chart for christmas day from tonights ecm!

Maybe we should be looking to the north/east again in the longer term.

I saw that and had the same immediate reaction as you, but don't you think the source of the air spoils it, the near continent has warmed up considerably by then?

[kippure]

Any one else getting missing model slides?

yep

[Bristawl Si]

To be honest I don't think anyone was saying there was going to be a repeat of 81,some members may have made reference to previous colder episodes where low pressure tracks much further south than normal to the south of the UK. In terms of the models they did very well with the current pattern but i'm afraid too many people were following a few gfs runs which brought something a little colder in terms of upper air profiles.The models progged an easterly followed by a north to nw erly which is whats going to happen, the problem is no matter how many times I and others have said just look at the general pattern not the detail this is overlooked in the stampede to board the gfs train to eskimo central!

I think to call this a cool spell is a little dismissive considering that there are snow chances for at least the next 4 days, with probably some very low night time temps, i think your post is probably born out of some frustration which i can understand but as you said this pattern was always going to favour more eastern and se areas initially, there are still chances for snow in other areas especially over the weekend.

Cheers Nick. Genuinely value your output. Maybe we'll get a real 'old-fashioned' blast in the New Year!

[Cloud 10]

I saw that and had the same immediate reaction as you, but don't you think the source of the air spoils it, the near continent has warmed up considerably by then?

Yes,that ecm chart for christmas day would likely be a rain in south, snow in north event.

The main reason for posting it is that it shows some good northern blocking which seems to relate to those deeply negative AO ensembles.

Still a lot to be decided before then though,but certainly something to watch.

[nick sussex]

Cheers Nick. Genuinely value your output. Maybe we'll get a real 'old-fashioned' blast in the New Year!

Thanks

Don't give up on seeing some snow this weekend, we've got a couple of fronts heading south which could give something, also next week still alot of uncertainty for the moment.

[casparjack]

Yes,that ecm chart for christmas day would likely be a rain in south, snow in north event.

The main reason for posting it is that it shows some good northern blocking which seems to relate to those deeply negative AO ensembles.

Still a lot to be decided before then though,but certainly something to watch.

The renewed N' blocking trend has popped up a few times in the past few days, I have no doubt that it is a trend for the new year...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very interesting ECM today. This milder slot/breakdown etc [which I maintain is likely to happen through Christmas] looks like being not a protracted event with I believe renewed and more serious cold for January. It may be that it is shortlived because the cold never really gets shunted away too far with northern blocking in place with a dep -ve AO and the LPs on the southerly course. The ECM is plausible IMO and I think we are heading through a thoroughly cracking winter.

BFTP

[West is Best]

Very interesting ECM today. This milder slot/breakdown etc [which I maintain is likely to happen through Christmas] looks like being not a protracted event with I believe renewed and more serious cold for January. It may be that it is shortlived because the cold never really gets shunted away too far with northern blocking in place with a dep -ve AO and the LPs on the southerly course. The ECM is plausible IMO and I think we are heading through a thoroughly cracking winter.

BFTP

Argh. Posted long reply which was lost, incl about the reemergence of northern blocking.

Agree Fred. Very interesting. 0z, now 12z showing a possible trend to sustained cold. Note the ensemble scatter, and especially that the 12z GFS operational was very much on the milder side. Is this a trend to something more prolonged? Very interesting times. These do not have the look of mild synoptic patterns to me ...

Edited December 17, 2009 by West is Best

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Very interesting ECM today. This milder slot/breakdown etc [which I maintain is likely to happen through Christmas] looks like being not a protracted event with I believe renewed and more serious cold for January. It may be that it is shortlived because the cold never really gets shunted away too far with northern blocking in place with a dep -ve AO and the LPs on the southerly course. The ECM is plausible IMO and I think we are heading through a thoroughly cracking winter.

BFTP

Hi Fred (Sorry for the slight off topic post, but couldnt seem to access PM's (Error occurred?)).

Just a quick question, but was it the forecast from yourself (and Roger?) who predicted the cold from mid month to before Christmas, with a reload between boxing day and new year?

[tinybill]

well now its looking deff we will get a white xmas day looks like the cold air winning!!!

[Solar Cycles]

Hi Fred (Sorry for the slight off topic post, but couldnt seem to access PM's (Error occurred?)).

Just a quick question, but was it the forecast from yourself (and Roger?) who predicted the cold from mid month to before Christmas, with a reload between boxing day and new year?

Fred had forecast for a breakdown around xmas, then shortly after New Year, a potent cold spell. Sorry for treading on your toes Fred!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Cheers SC. Looking at the models, the later cold spell I guess is still well up in the air, but the initial cold spell and the breakdown look like a good call at the moment.

Tinybill - That chart is I would say marginal for most, and not so good for EA.

[Wayneywoo]

How many times have we seen the jet stay south of the UK in the so called "even larger teapot"? The entire 12Z run. Surely with the UK polar side of the jet, our chances of cold outbreaks must be much higher.

I remember countless times in the past the GIN Corridor mentioned and lows there always scuppering our chances. I don't see this in the models at all?

[Solar Cycles]

Fred had forecast for a breakdown around xmas, then shortly after New Year, a potent cold spell. Sorry for treading on your toes Fred!

Fred a quick question, do you see this cold spell lasting through to the end of January?

[J10]

Quiet in here tonight where is everyone?

People in eastern areas are discussing actual snow tonight, or falling now, rather than discussing future snow.

[benb]

Lucky for some! I did think with troughs etc modelled, a little more precipitation may have made it to the west. Got to be careful using those precipitation charts!