General Model Output Discussion

[Barb]

Very nice 00z, cold until Christmas.

Lol@06z... completely different to 00z at 90hrs, colder though.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Barb

[PB22]

Would definitely agree with the sentiments that the models are struggling at the moment. The differences between the 06Z and 00Z GFS are stark even at T+90! If nothing else, we can all expect some harsh frosts in the coming nights:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9617.html

[ISAAC]

very bizarre differences on the 00z and 06z GFS. the low on tuesday is now non- existent on the 06z

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Would definitely agree with the sentiments that the models are struggling at the moment. The differences between the 06Z and 00Z GFS are stark even at T+90! If nothing else, we can all expect some harsh frosts in the coming nights:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn961.html

http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn9617.html

They're only showing minus 2s to minus 4s. Seems pretty normal to me. I was expecting to reach minus 9 or 10 at some point, although I guess there's still plenty of time, particularly if I get more snow over the weekend.

[PB22]

They're only showing minus 2s to minus 4s. Seems pretty normal to me. I was expecting to reach minus 9 or 10 at some point, although I guess there's still plenty of time, particularly if I get more snow over the weekend.

I think the frosts will be harsher than what the GFS is suggesting, more akin to this chart:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn4817.html

Particularly if snow cover is evident.

Mind you, -5C for us southerners on that T+96 chart is harsh!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think they are far too conservative too as under these sort of conditions, I normally drop down to -7º and below quite easily.

You delicate little souls! I hope they've covered the Portman Road pitch.

[mountain shadow]

http://209.197.11.107/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/06/120/h500slp.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf313b31cf613b611ea4302acf613b55&dopsig=7eb0aaa499c85a613a012e8f8588047f

I don;t think I;ve ever seen such messy output at 5 days. Based on current model output forecasting is pretty much impossible at the minute.

[Tom D]

very bizarre differences on the 00z and 06z GFS. the low on tuesday is now non- existent on the 06z

I think that low was a bit of a blip, it appeared on another chart recently too, but generally the models agree it won't appear. It looked way too deep to be sitting just off the east coast anyway.

The run seems to prolong the cold until at least next Wednesday, with -5 uppers and very low overnight lows; could be some -10s in Scotland with -6/7c even in southern England.

[bluearmy]

The 00z GEM run is an interesting run, especially when viewed in conjunction with the GFS. The ECM op goes mild at the end of the run but this is a wet outlier in holland and in the warm cluster of solutions. the control reverts back to the freezer.

make sure you take a look at the T120 FAX from yesterday before it goes this evening. Thats a very rare sypnotic chart. Doubtful if anything like that has ever been issued on the internet.

anyone care to place a wager on a breakdown ???

[mountain shadow]

The 00z GEM run is an interesting run, especially when viewed in conjunction with the GFS. The ECM op goes mild at the end of the run but this is a wet outlier in holland and in the warm cluster of solutions. the control reverts back to the freezer.

make sure you take a look at the T120 FAX from yesterday before it goes this evening. Thats a very rare sypnotic chart. Doubtful if anything like that has ever been issued on the internet.

anyone care to place a wager on a breakdown ???

£20 on April!!

With a jet profile like thism we aint going to see 10oC anytime soon. Looks cold and frosty for xmas day.

http://209.197.11.170/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/06/153/hgt300.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf313869cf6138391ea433665bb48fe4&dopsig=1dc8f1064405b2f9bb238b1f651b993f

[Snow Queen one]

i really need some help and advise my daughter is in Canturbury she is going to try to drive home to Maidstone. When will the snow arrive and will it effect her drive. I want her home safely as i feel if she stays in Canturbury i will not see her till Tuesday next week. Can anybody advise what she should do and timings please she is 19 and has never driven in this sort of snow.

Thanks

[PB22]

I think they are far too conservative too as under these sort of conditions, I normally drop down to -7º and below quite easily.

You delicate little souls! I hope they've covered the Portman Road pitch.

Never mind -5, the T+168 chart throws up a -12 for the southeast on Christmas morning!

http://www.wzkarten....Rtavn16817.html

Edited December 18, 2009 by Paul B

[mountain shadow]

i really need some help and advise my daughter is in Canturbury she is going to try to drive home to Maidstone. When will the snow arrive and will it effect her drive. I want her home safely as i feel if she stays in Canturbury i will not see her till Tuesday next week. Can anybody advise what she should do and timings please she is 19 and has never driven in this sort of snow.

Thanks

If she has never driven in snow before, my advice would be don't and wait until later this afternoon and early evening when the snow should have stopped and roads can be cleared and gritted.

[Barb]

Chilly Christmas morning.

[KTtom]

Doesn't warm up much either

[derby4life]

i really need some help and advise my daughter is in Canturbury she is going to try to drive home to Maidstone. When will the snow arrive and will it effect her drive. I want her home safely as i feel if she stays in Canturbury i will not see her till Tuesday next week. Can anybody advise what she should do and timings please she is 19 and has never driven in this sort of snow.

Thanks

get her to stay where she is Snow Queen one ....better to be safe than sorry

[Thundery wintry showers]

As often happens the models are perhaps showing themselves to have been a little too progressive in showing a breakdown, with only the ECMWF showing something significantly milder in time for Christmas (though I'm not sure about how cold the UKMO would be- looks a bit marginal!). Looking at the ensembles for Tyne & Wear (IMBY I know) there is now strong ensemble support on the GEFS for a white Christmas with 850hPa temperatures only going significantly above -5C on a few runs:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Before that remaining cold and snowy for most through until the 23rd December with the lows, crucially, further east than on many runs of the last two days, suggesting that this trend of LP to the west and southerlies may have been just a blip.

I reckon that mild weather will eventually push up from the south, with somewhere between 25 and 27 December looking a good bet, leaving the prospects of a white Christmas on a knife edge but looking quite favourable at the moment in the north. My hunch is that something similar to the breakdown at the end of December 1981 will happen, i.e. it may only be temporary with the northern blocking once again making its presence felt shortly after the New Year.

[Snow Queen one]

If she has never driven in snow before, my advice would be don't and wait until later this afternoon and early evening when the snow should have stopped and roads can be cleared and gritted.

Trouble is it's predicted to snow again today giving anouther 5 to 10 cms according to the BBC

[PB22]

If nothing else, the 06Z GFS certainly indicates we could well be in for a prolonged cold spell now with no firm signs really of a breakdown to milder weather. Details beyond early next week remain very sketchy, but the trend is certainly there for the cold to stay.

[Duane S.]

make sure you take a look at the T120 FAX from yesterday before it goes this evening. Thats a very rare sypnotic chart. Doubtful if anything like that has ever been issued on the internet.

Absolutely right to point that out. It is like a rare and beautiful work of art. Even if it doesn't come to fruition the synoptics sure are nice to look at!

[PB22]

Trouble is it's predicted to snow again today giving anouther 5 to 10 cms according to the BBC

I'd say stay put...there's a continued risk of snow showers in the southeast for the next 24-30 hours.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs123.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs183.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs243.html

[joespontiac]

Absolutely right to point that out. It is like a rare and beautiful work of art. Even if it doesn't come to fruition the synoptics sure are nice to look at!

Do you have a link to that fax?

[doublebarrel]

i really need some help and advise my daughter is in Canturbury she is going to try to drive home to Maidstone. When will the snow arrive and will it effect her drive. I want her home safely as i feel if she stays in Canturbury i will not see her till Tuesday next week. Can anybody advise what she should do and timings please she is 19 and has never driven in this sort of snow.

Thanks

Hi SQ1, Although it stings my tongue to say it !! get her to watch the Met office forecasts, if they are as good for down there as they are here she wont go far wrong.The Met said no snow for Derby they were bang on !! snow for Leicestershire, which is not far from us in Derby, snow !! but most of all be safe !!!

[Snow Queen one]

thanks all for your replies i will let you know when she gets home.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Trouble is it's predicted to snow again today giving anouther 5 to 10 cms according to the BBC

Get the train?