General Model Output Discussion

[da_bish]

Good advice re the forecast.

Tell her to go to the rac/aa sites for advice in driving in snow.

Always best to drive in the highest gear possible. Leave at least triple distance from the car in front.

Avoid jerky movements, apply brakes gently or even use the gears to slow down - avoid sudden braking (if possible).

Pull away from snow or ice in 2nd gear, avoid high revs.

Best of luck and I am sure your daughter will arrive home safely for Christmas.

[Thundery wintry showers]

If nothing else, the 06Z GFS certainly indicates we could well be in for a prolonged cold spell now with no firm signs really of a breakdown to milder weather. Details beyond early next week remain very sketchy, but the trend is certainly there for the cold to stay.

I forgot to mention that- the GEFS ensembles for Tyne & Wear don't even give much support for any breakdown at all! My prediction that we will still have one is based largely on surveying the UKMO and ECM runs, but it is true that the trend is in the other direction. The probability of a white Christmas in northern regions is starting to inch above the 50% mark I feel.

[cooling climate]

Doesn't warm up much either

The chart shown is from the 0z run.

On the 06z run it has a maximum of -5c for the southeast on Christmas day lol.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The probability of a white Christmas in northern regions is starting to inch above the 50% mark I feel.

Do you mean white Christmas in its true sense; snow falling on Christmas Day, or in as much as there'll still be lying snow?

[David-kig]

thunder snow wednesday 23rd sw maybe on this run have a snow event in the sw england. the tempertures look really cold still so if it can hang on for 2 days then maybe we have a white christmas cheeky one but still classed as one

[Duane S.]

Do you have a link to that fax?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

[kold weather]

What I'm really noticing on the models is they are now keeping a little area of higher pressure near Greenland, heights are just a little higher but its all relative...the GFS 06z shows us all the indications of a very very prolonged cold spell indeed, the type not seen since the 80s...should still see less cold air get into the south but we will see.

[joespontiac]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Lovely thank you!

[David-kig]

What I'm really noticing on the models is they are now keeping a little area of higher pressure near Greenland, heights are just a little higher but its all relative...the GFS 06z shows us all the indications of a very very prolonged cold spell indeed, the type not seen since the 80s...should still see less cold air get into the south but we will see.

snow risk is still there for south west on the 23rd high ground the better but doesnt look like rising temperture, how i see it. looks just as cold on the 24th surface temperture then say 2morow

What I'm really noticing on the models is they are now keeping a little area of higher pressure near Greenland, heights are just a little higher but its all relative...the GFS 06z shows us all the indications of a very very prolonged cold spell indeed, the type not seen since the 80s...should still see less cold air get into the south but we will see.

snow risk is still there for south west on the 23rd high ground the better but doesnt look like rising temperture, how i see it.  looks just as cold on the 24th surface temperture then say 2morow

[Frosty.]

A very wintry weekend coming up for scotland, nw england, n.ireland and n.wales with increasing snow showers risk and Arctic NW'ly winds strengthening, east and southeast england look much brighter on sat/sun but still v.cold. It seems the cold air is going to be hard to displace next week with the Jet remaining hundreds of miles south of the uk and signs of height rises to the north later. My current view would be that scotland will remain cold/wintry throughout next week and there are now signs it might possibly remain cold in the south as well, as shown on the GFS 06z, even a reload of this pattern is shown at the end of the run with the mild air never reaching the far north of britain at any stage.

[Joneseye]

The evolution on the 06Z GFS is certainly quite tasty looking if you like prolonged cold and snow.

This latest run shows a snow event for the South of the UK next Wednesday if it verified as we see this morning. However we are in a period of uncertainty for the outlook due to the synoptics being the non-default for the UK. Interesting times for the weather fan, particularly if you like snow and cold!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Do you mean white Christmas in its true sense; snow falling on Christmas Day, or in as much as there'll still be lying snow?

I mean in the sense of lying snow, although falling snow can't be ruled out either at this range, as low pressure is still likely to be close by even if it stays cold.

Personally I've always thought of a white Christmas as being more about lying rather than falling snow, contrary to what the bookies say!

[Duane S.]

Hi SQ1, Although it stings my tongue to say it !! get her to watch the Met office forecasts, if they are as good for down there as they are here she wont go far wrong.The Met said no snow for Derby they were bang on !! snow for Leicestershire, which is not far from us in Derby, snow !! but most of all be safe !!!

I'd agree with that. I would have to say that the METO have been right on the button leading up to and during this cold spell so far. Obviously there will always be some who will be disappointed, some will be pleasantly surprised but overall their warnings and their predicted track of the area of LP which brought the wintery PPN was impressively accurate.

Back to the models and yet more great charts on offer. Although the 06z GFS delays it a bit, IMO it is looking likely that maybe the first, albeit probably quite weak, sortie from the Atlantic will come just before Xmas. As it stands it will most likely be sleet/rain in the far south (obviously that could change) but not too much further North some could experience memorable snowfalls around Xmas time. Even if the Atlantic does break through, other than a transient mild spell, there is no sign that we will go back to 'UK default'. The likelhood is I would say that by the first week of January we are looking at strong Easterly reload.

[Eugene]

A very wintry weekend coming up for scotland, nw england, n.ireland and n.wales with increasing snow showers risk and Arctic NW'ly winds strengthening, east and southeast england look much brighter on sat/sun but still v.cold. It seems the cold air is going to be hard to displace next week with the Jet remaining hundreds of miles south of the uk and signs of height rises to the north later. My current view would be that scotland will remain cold/wintry throughout next week and there are now signs it might possibly remain cold in the south as well, as shown on the GFS 06z, even a reload of this pattern is shown at the end of the run with the mild air never reaching the far north of britain at any stage.

Yes i agree apart from add west midlands and particularly NW midlands as being in with a chance of snow showers too, told you the cold spell would come off frosty i know you had your doubts after that ECM 00Z run earlier this week :lol:

Nice GFS 06Z around christmas weekend BUT i would like GFS 12Z to continue the trend as GFS 06Z along with 18Z we all know can be quite wonky at times

[MisfitDog3]

"with the mild air never reaching the far north of britain at any stage."

A fair call really! I have just been ploughing through the various models for the last half an hour and I am yet to be convinced there really is going to be a reversion to milder weather. There are some very odd and in a couple of cases, downright bizarre placements of pressure systems for the latter part of next week that just do not look right at all. The short/medium term diversification is surprisingly high between the models as well. I suspect we will see a sudden shift in to line over the next 48 hours.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very interesting patterns on the models, 06z is cold cold cold. ECM not mild and has very cold reload at t240. Like I said yesterday, I am watching the ECM closely, the middle of the run shows LP over the UK moving in all four directions of the compass

[Duane S.]

I am watching the ECM closely, the middle of the run shows LP over the UK moving in all four directions of the compass

I know, I saw that! I can honestly say I have never quite seen anything like that before These are good days to be avid model watchers that's for sure!

[Tom D]

This is an extraordinary chart, sorry if it's been pointed out before. What is going on here?!

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-156.png?6

[MisfitDog3]

This is an extraordinary chart, sorry if it's been pointed out before. What is going on here?!

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-156.png?6

That is a bit bonkers isn't it?!! Nervous breakdown I think.....

[nick sussex]

Afternoon all from a snowy sw France

The models continue to try and make sense of a complex set up, they may have the general pattern okay but small detail in this set up is not possible to pin down. It's likely the UK will see fronts try and approach from the sw, with small low pressures slow moving.

We have seen a trend over the last few days to keep these further south with some tentative signals of some height rises to the ne, the models continue to keep northern blocking to the far north. At the moment it's a bit like a boxing match with opposing sides trying to knock the other out and for the moment its looking like a stalemate, so which way will it go?

At the moment the cold boxer IMO is just ahead on points but can't quite land the knock out punch!

Todays ecm ensembles continue to develop more colder members with the extended outlook looking very uncertain, in future outputs look out for how far east low pressure can get into France this will be a positive trend, if you see low pressure beginning to develop towards the Med then we are likely to see a signal for pressure to rise to the ne, similar to what the gfs hints at.

A very intriguing few days now to see what develops

[Dingwantssnow]

I know this might be considered of topic but i wanted the more experienced on here to answered and everyone reads this thread. If we take the GFS 06z and ECM outputs would you say the LOW moving down from the north this weekend will give a high ammount of snow fall for the NW region and Scotland??

There also doesnt seem to be much talk of this low on here too. I realise that the SE has had a pasting but it seems everyone is now looking to the SW for the mild weather to come in/ or not and ignoring this very good potential for the north.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Dingwantssnow

[Upgrade]

bizarre. Maybe it's going to be like The Day After Tomorrow?

[Nights King]

bizarre. Maybe it's going to be like The Day After Tomorrow?

we would still miss it all here.

[West is Best]

Once again huge ensemble scatter from the 6zGFS, and the operational disappearing on its own into mild again in FI. Gosh there are some cold members too.

Very very interesting. If I were a betting man now I'd say the next 48hours will see some stonking runs coming up ... with the caveat that it doesn't mean they will actually happen!

[Upgrade]

we would still miss it all here.

People would still be talking about downgrades.......

fascinating charts though, never seen this before. cold snowy christmas is my take on this.

Edited December 18, 2009 by jimmyay