January CET

[Nick L]

I have now reached -4c and I am slap bang in the middle of the CET zone, probably won't get above -3c as the sun is starting to go down now. Will be a very low value for today that's for sure.

[cheeky_monkey]

i think any possibility of not getting a sub 3c have gone now..as has IMHO a sub 2c....prices shortening on the first sub 0c since Feb 86..what chance beating Jan 79 at... -0.4c?

Edited January 7, 2010 by cheeky_monkey

[Nick L]

i think any possibility of not getting a sub 3c have gone now..as has IMHO a sub 2c....prices shortening on the first sub 0c since Feb 86..what chance beating Jan 79 at... -0.4c?

I think sub 1c is odds on IMO, which is incredible considering some thought it impossible that we could get sub-3c again!

Edited January 7, 2010 by nick2702

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

If we get any sort of breakdown next weekm we will probably end at sub 2C

For me, I'll go for +0.2 at the end of the month

[Mark Bayley]

My 3.6c is looking a tad on the high side then

[West is Best]

Manley has just updated.

-2.1C January 1-7th!

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[Snowly does it]

Manley has just updated.

-2.1C January 1-7th!

http://www.climate-uk.com/

And with some bone-chilling nights around at the moment, will we, even if just for a little while mid month, flirt with the coldest ever month level of -3.1?!?!

[Snowly does it]

Hadley stands at -1.3 (-1.26) to the 7th with yesterday coming in at -3.9, the coldest CET day since December 1995

With yesterday's maxima at -0.2, it was also a CET ice day

Last night was a balmy -7.1

[stewfox]

And with some bone-chilling nights around at the moment, will we, even if just for a little while mid month, flirt with the coldest ever month level of -3.1?!?!

If that North Easterly wind didnt pick up and some cloud cover not come in, both of which would seem to effect most of the CET zone over the next few days I might agree.

I still think the CET will fall to cira -2.5c by tuesday but then ?? Other peoples take ?

Wouldnt it be great if it did fall down to -3.1c (who is going to ring the Daily Mail) I can see the head lines now.

COLDEST JANUARY START SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE. (its the Daily Mail)

The Sun PAGE 3 LOVILIES WARM UP PENSIONERS (BUS TOUR)

Edited January 8, 2010 by stewfox

[Snowly does it]

If that North Easterly wind didnt pick up and some cloud cover not come in, both of which would seem to effect most of the CET zone over the next few days I might agree.

I still think the CET will fall to cira -2.5c by tuesday but then ?? Other peoples take ?

The coldest first half of Jan is (I think) Jan 1814 at -3.7 1-16th (-3.8 1-15th) so a little extra drop needed!

We might graze the low -2s and at mid month be perhaps between -1 and -1.5?

We could be sub-zero still by the 20th even with a slightly less cold set-up and sub 2 for the month looks very feasible.

[reef]

The coldest first half of Jan is (I think) Jan 1814 at -3.7 1-16th (-3.8 1-15th) so a little extra drop needed!

We might graze the low -2s and at mid month be perhaps between -1 and -1.5?

We could be sub-zero still by the 20th even with a slightly less cold set-up and sub 2 for the month looks very feasible.

The GFS would probably guarantee a sub-1C finish if it occured. The key to such a cold month is a mixture of cold spells with less cold weather in between. The killer in recent years is not that we cant get cold, but that the spells in between have been very mild.

Id say sub-3C is almost certain now though, thats something

[Snowly does it]

Hadley at -1.5 (-1.54) to the 8th

Last night is down as -4.6 so today will likely come in at around -1.5 to -2.0 overall

Low point for the month therefore likely now to be -1.7 or thereabouts?

Should be comfortably sub-zero at mid-month.

[Weather-history]

11th December-8th January CET: 0.6C

So we are going to have a 31 day period that is sub 1C

[Snowyowl9]

Last January mean here to the 10th was certainly very cold at -3.3c

This january is twice as cold at -6.0c on a par with a 1980`s cold spell.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley at -1.6 (-1.56) to the 9th, yesterday was the 7th negative day in a row (second time this winter)

Last night -3.5 so today likely to be another negative day.

This looks like the lowest we will get to I think - a slow climb back towards -1 over the next few days, but still likely to be sub zero at mid month and perhaps out to the 20th depending on things from Thursday onwards.

For sub 3 hunters, 105 degrees over the next 22 days required to get above 3, so 4.7 per day

[damianslaw]

Expect that we have reached the lowest value the CET will get too this month - below -1.5 degrees is very impressive though.. with a fairly cold week ahead (CET values will probably average out around the 1-2 degree mark with mins of 0 degrees and maxes pof 3-4 degrees), I think it will be hard task to reach anything above 3 degrees (still an outside chance if we see a very mild spell in the latter part of the month.

However, at this stage a good bet would be a finishing mark somewhere between the 1 and 2 degree mark, our coldest month since at least Feb 1991 looks very possible, doubt it will end up sub-zero.

[Kentish Man]

There have been two or three GFS runs over the last couple of days broadly hinting there might be a temporary warm-up (though not exactly mild) next weekend but that the Scandinavian High might re-exert its influence towards the final week of the month. Clearly that kind of scenario would rule out anything above 3c and probably 2c.

[Optimus Prime]

Current CET is about -1.4c to the 10th. GFS suggests a mean temperature of 0.6c for the period 11th-15th giving a CET of -0.7c to the 15th.

For January to be the coldest on record, the second half would need to avergage -5.5c (9.7c below normal) (to give a final CET of -3.1c)

For January to be the warmest on record, the second half would need to average 15.7c (11.5c above normal) (To give a final CET 7.5c)

If the second half averaged;

0.0c= Final CET -0.4c

1.0c= 0.2c 15%

2.0c= 0.7c 25%

3.0c= 1.2c 30%

4.0c= 1.7c 35%

5.0c= 2.2c 45%

6.0c= 2.7c 60%

7.0c= 3.2c 40%

8.0c= 3.7c 10%

9.0= 4.2c 5%

As a rough guide, I've put in brackets in my view, the precentage of what's likely from here on in taking into account the recent big warming trend, previous corrects and the models.

For what it's worth 2.7c would be a good benchmark.

Edited January 11, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[West is Best]

The difference though between this and, say, January 1982 is that there just really aren't actual mild conditions showing up. Although the extreme cold supply looks set to be cut off the outlook still doesn't look particularly mild. Even with a southerly feed the GFS 0z run shows supressed surface temperatures for at least another week. UKMO perhaps hints at something milder later. With a Scandinavian high there is enough upper air cold nearby off the continent for things to remain below average for the time of year. Not until we return to true south-westerlies and westerlies will we see genuinely mild conditions returning at the moment.

So I'm not yet seeing a repeat of January 1982 which went from record lows back up to 2.6C overall. And, actually, are we not a degree colder than that month at the relevant period?

[Weather-history]

So I'm not yet seeing a repeat of January 1982 which went from record lows back up to 2.6C overall. And, actually, are we not a degree colder than that month at the relevant period?

I think it needs to be pointed out that January 1982 actually started very mild.

CET up to 5th January 1982 was 6.9, so the very cold spell had to counteract this very mild start.

Edited January 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Roger J Smith]

Would the Hadley computer register a monthly sub 2.0 without imploding? There may be a program written in to destroy all evidence.

[Nick L]

Would the Hadley computer register a monthly sub 2.0 without imploding? There may be a program written in to destroy all evidence.

It will probably take them until July to confirm the figure, by which time the winter would have been long, lost and forgotten...

[Weather-history]

Sub-zero 1st-10th January periods for the CET

1774: -1.1C

1777: -1.5C

1780: -0.6C

1784: -0.7C

1789: -2.2C

1794: -0.1C

1795: -2.6C

1799: -0.1C

1802: -0.3C

1811: -1.8C

1814: -3.0C

1820: -2.5C

1841: -2.0C

1842: -0.3C

1850: -0.1C

1861: -1.0C

1864: -2.1C

1868: -0.1C

1879: -1.2C

1887: -0.5C

1891: -1.1C

1893: -2.0C

1894: -1.8C

1941: -0.8C

1963: -0.6C

1979: -0.5C

1997: -0.6C

2009: -0.4C

2010: -1.5C provisionally

11th December-10th January CET: 0.5C

So we have had a 31 day period that has turned out sub 1C, now when was the last time that happened for any 31 consecutive day period?

Edited January 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

So, provisionally the 11th coldest first third of January in the entire CET record- which is pretty impressive considering the recent warming trend and the generally colder climate of the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries.

It may well be even more extreme than that, as Philip Eden's version would probably have come out about half a degree lower (as it was -2.1C to the 7th) and he has quite a strong case for his version being the closer to Manley's original scheme.

I don't know when we last had a sub zero 31 day period but have a feeling that mid January to mid February 1991 would've managed it. Failing that we would have to go back to 1987 which had a sub 1C January.

[Snowly does it]

Jan 20 - Feb 19 1991 = 0.45 was the last sub 1 31 day period

Feb 1 - Mar 3 1986 (31 day period) = -0.99, last 31 day sub-zero period