January CET

[igloo]

a little in the cool side 4.5c

[Glacier Point]

2.5C please

Edited December 31, 2009 by Glacier Point

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Downward adjustment to 2.6C please

[Evening thunder]

Oops.. 1.9C please

[Roger J Smith]

Now, if you accept the idea that the first half of the month is looking challenged to reach even zero C, say it does manage that high, all of these predictions are really half of our estimates of the second half of the month's mean.

E.g., if you predicted 2.0 you're expecting 4.0 second half. If you predicted -2.0 maybe you're expecting the first half to be colder than zero, but anyway, Craig, good luck with that 16.0 second half.

I was thinking about lowering my 1.8 after realizing this fact, but then 3.6 sounds about right if the block finally fades out around the 20th. Personally, I think it will fade out before February and not lead to a third below normal month (at least not this cold). Although there was a post about 1940, I think perhaps 1945 is a closer analogue to the sort of situation we are in globally. It sure looks like 1962-63 on the maps this past week or two, and it's sobering to realize that 80% of all significant cold events recorded in both the UK and eastern North America have occurred after New Years (both in reference to temps and snowstorms). In fact the median date for below zero C days on the CET would appear to be close to Jan 25th. This is also about the mid-way point through a list of major snowstorms in the northeast US that I recently worked on.

So, either winter came early in 2009-10, or you're in for a hell of a shocker.

[stewfox]

I put in -0.5c on 30th but its not on the list ?

Edited January 1, 2010 by stewfox

[kold weather]

Yep Roger given the models this morning I'm pretty confident we will be clsoe to 0C by mid month even if the set-up breakdown by the 10-11th, such is the strength of the cold expected...

However I really do think we are in for a severe month now, and your right Roger, we've not seen anything like this for a long long time...we had a hint of how cold it can get between the 20th December and the 10th of Jan, this time the strongest of the cold is centered in one month rather then two...if we can't get a sub 3C month this month, it simply can't be done!

[cheeky_monkey]

if we can't get a sub 3C month this month, it simply can't be done!

i agree..if we do get to mid month at 0c (which is a distinct possiblity) then it would need a very mild second half to get back above 3c.

im off to Canada mid month so i guarantee the cold will remain...simply because i wont be here

[ukmoose]

I put in -0.5c on 30th but its not on the list ?

Sorry - I will put you in!

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

142 1.6-C: Tommyd1258

111 0.5-C: stewfox

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

119 1.6C: Mr Maunder

136 1.6C: Stu London

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

138 1.9C: snowmaiden

154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

137 2.2C: sundog

65 2.3C: damianslaw

135 2.3C: phil n.warks

150 2.3C: themusicland

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

126 2.5C: Snowman0697

152 2.5C: Glacier Point

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

124 2.8C: reef

141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

128 2.9C: chionomaniac

143 2.9C: JACKONE

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

121 3.3C: DR Hosking

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

144 3.4C: Stargazer

14 3.5C: BARRY

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

149 3.7C: Kentish Man

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

123 4.0C: rikki

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

151 4.5C: igloo

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

OK I think that's it but let me know if I have missed anything - especially late revisions.

[cooling climate]

I was about to do this yesterday but got side tracked and then forgot all about it,

but could I have a -1.3c please.

[kold weather]

Unreal 12z so far, if they came off then the first half of the month will be sub 0C, to get above 3C will require a 16 day mild spell of around 5.5C roughly...and given the strength of the -ve NAO...

Anyway as often as I can I shall compare this Jan to some of the cold past Jans as well as Jans that had a cold start but warmer up to above 3C, almost a tracker of sorts I suppose!

All I'll say is people going above 4C now are in big trouble, even those above 3C maybe somewhat high...

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

What are the lowest min max and mean CET days this century?

[kold weather]

I believe the lowest mean day came last Jan though I'm not sure what date, at -3.0C...if we were to get snow on the ground widely and had the sort of set-up seen on the models at 168hrs then we'd likely see that fall IMO, similar days in Dec 96 got down to about -4/5C which is quite plauseable if that set-up came off...

I'd guess the first 10 days will come out about -1/1.5C, so bitterly cold and sets us up for a sub 3C month very nicely...

By the way today should come in around -0.75C roughly however of course local figures from the stations may be a little bit milder, anything above 0C and I'd be a little surprised....

Edited January 1, 2010 by kold weather

[Tom D]

Sorry, is that 1.6 or minus 1.6 C ?

Sorry, it was a dash

1.6c here.

[kold weather]

The 18z GFS not as severe as the 12z but still utterly freezing come the 17th and if anything has more in the tank...

Anyway here are my conservative estimates from the two most recent GFS runs

12z: -1.38C upto the 17th

18z: -0.47C upto the 17th

Both clearly showing exceptional spell of cold...

[acbrixton]

3.7 for my late entry please.

regards

ACB

[Kentish Man]

If the rules allow I am revising my entry to 0.9C subject to the one day late penalty points deduction. If they don't allow it so be it!

Edited January 1, 2010 by Kentish Man

[osmposm]

Heavens Above! I disappear to France for a family Xmas, and decide to be a normal (i.e. not-glued-to-Netweather) human being for the duration.....then get back to find an extraordinary outlook has crept up while I wasn't looking, and my early 4.1 entry is looking a bit ridiculous.

So, sorry if it seems like cheating, but I'm going to take the two-day 20 point penalty, and drop my guess by 1.7 to

+2.4^oC.

I may regret not going even lower....but old, um, warmist habits die hard.

Here's to the first sub-3.0 month for thirteen years.

[kold weather]

Yet again the GFS suggests the coldest first 10 days in a very long time indeed, probably the coldest start in the last century looking at the stats (yes, beating some of those legendary winters whose Jans started out cold but not at the severe levels they became known for...)

Also looking increasingly likely the first 15 days will average below 0C however of course much uncertainty yet...

Now waiting for the data to come through foir the first day of Jan, very interesting to see just how cold they come in as...

[kold weather]

Well the first days worth of data has come in now.

1st of Jan came out at -0.3C so we start off 2010 with an ice day. Last nights mins came in at -2.8C though todays maxes may be a little higher around 3-4C so probably a slightly above 0C day tomorrow, though today and tomorrow look like being the mildest day in the next 10-12 days more then likely and they will still be well below average anyway.

I'll make a stats update with regards to other Jans later on today.

[ukmoose]

Updated list as follows:

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

161 1.3-C: cooling climate Late 10 P Points

111 0.5-C: stewfox

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

168 0.9C: Kentish Man Late 10 P Points

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

119 1.6C: Mr Maunder

136 1.6C: Stu London

142 1.6C: Tommyd1258

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

138 1.9C: snowmaiden

154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

137 2.2C: sundog

65 2.3C: damianslaw

135 2.3C: phil n.warks

150 2.3C: themusicland

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

169 2.4C: osmposm Late 20 P Points

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

126 2.5C: Snowman0697

152 2.5C: Glacier Point

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

124 2.8C: reef

141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

128 2.9C: chionomaniac

143 2.9C: JACKONE

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

121 3.3C: DR Hosking

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

144 3.4C: Stargazer

14 3.5C: BARRY

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

167 3.7C: acbrixton Late 10 P Points

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

123 4.0C: rikki

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

151 4.5C: igloo

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

[kold weather]

So the 1st came out at -0.3C, but how does this compare to other years...

Well as often as I can I shall put up the rolling CET of the Jan from a selection of Jans, some of which started very cold but got above 3C, most of which were either colder, or in the case of some, exceptionally cold. I shall put them in order of the rolling CET, coldest at the top...next to it putting the eventual CET. Should give us a good idea by the 10-15th of where this month is likely to go with regards to the CET....should be interesting to see how certain months evolved.

Jan 1979 ---- -3.8C (-0.4)

Jan 1997 ---- -2.6 (2.5)

Jan 2009 ---- -0.9 (3.0)

Jan 1963 ---- -0.8 (-2.1)

Jan 1940 ---- -0.3 (-1.4)

Jan 2010 ---- -0.3

Jan 1868 ---- 1.4 (3.9)

Jan 1894 ---- 1.6 (3.2)

Jan 1985 ---- 4.0 (0.

Also worth noting that since the 11th we have averaged 1.8C and thats only going to further drop away, and the 20 day rolling CET could well reach 0C at some point in the next 10 days if we get a few strong CET Ice days.

I'm also running a 'required to reach' CEt projection which shows what people need to reach thier targets, I'd imagine some of the milder punts will be needing something rather impressive by mid month!

[ukmoose]

So the 1st came out at -0.3C, but how does this compare to other years...

Well as often as I can I shall put up the rolling CET of the Jan from a selection of Jans, some of which started very cold but got above 3C, most of which were either colder, or in the case of some, exceptionally cold. I shall put them in order of the rolling CET, coldest at the top...next to it putting the eventual CET. Should give us a good idea by the 10-15th of where this month is likely to go with regards to the CET....should be interesting to see how certain months evolved.

Jan 1979 ---- -3.8C (-0.4)

Jan 1997 ---- -2.6 (2.5)

Jan 2009 ---- -0.9 (3.0)

Jan 1963 ---- -0.8 (-2.1)

Jan 1940 ---- -0.3 (-1.4)

Jan 2010 ---- -0.3

Jan 1868 ---- 1.4 (3.9)

Jan 1894 ---- 1.6 (3.2)

Jan 1985 ---- 4.0 (0.

Also worth noting that since the 11th we have averaged 1.8C and thats only going to further drop away, and the 20 day rolling CET could well reach 0C at some point in the next 10 days if we get a few strong CET Ice days.

I'm also running a 'required to reach' CEt projection which shows what people need to reach thier targets, I'd imagine some of the milder punts will be needing something rather impressive by mid month!

Thanks KW - an interesting addition to the usual cet comp and some very interesting figures you have posted there.

[kold weather]

Also its funny to see Craig already has seen the temp he needs to get to his CET rise nearly 0.3C for the rest of the month, not surprising given how high he went though with his 8C projection!

People going above 4C now need to see the next 30 days average 4.15C as well...