January CET

[Eugene]

Today certainly looks like being the mildest day of the upcoming very cold spell.

Yes i recorded 4C on saturday still not average though which is 7C this time of year something people forget, away from the north this isn't really a cold country.

I've been really struggling to record average maxs, on Dec 27th i almost did but i think i might of been around half a degree short

I recorded -7C last night and so did others in the midlands so it wont take long for the CET to plummet if that continues which it looks like it will apart from a few more milder nights at -3C/-4C if it turns more cloudy overnight like it might tonight.

Gavin P is actually concerned his estimate for January is too high at 1.5C

[The PIT]

Well warmer today than yesterday despite a colder night. So no ice day for us today but the next few days are going to be interesting too see what damage is done to the CET.

[Mark Bayley]

I would not be surprised to see days in the -5 to -3 C range on the daily CET later this week, and I would be really surprised if the monthly average made it above 1.0 before the 20th if the models are not totally wrong about future evolution ... and I think there will be reasonable snow cover after this week too. Wouldn't it be astounding if the month could remain below zero? I think we're seeing that it's only a question of duration, not intensity.

Most of the really cold months seemed to produce a week to ten days in the -6 to -8 C range, and I don't see that as totally beyond reach either if snow cover is established followed by high pressure.

What would also be outstanding is everyone would have guessed to high in the C.E.T comp

I think Sub 3.0c is all most certain with Sub 2.0c looking possible (as KW points out) I suppose it could be even lower, just depends on how long it lasts. Which is looking quite a long time...

[Weather-history]

Mid December-mid January CET is going to be interesting, it looks like it could go on to be the coldest mid month to mid month period for years.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Well I've been harping on about it the possible sub 3C CET, I'd say if we can get to the 15th with the cold still locked in then it becomes almost nailed on...not quite there yet though because 1894 had a bitterly cold first 10 days (-1.8C!) and yet managed 3.2C...

However odds looking good on us remaining freezing cold till midmonth...as I said over on TWO on the 23rd of December, the pattern we have now is one of the most condusive for cold we've seen on the internet age, I'm glad I'm correct on that!

I'll post my usual stats soon...

[Nick L]

Just done a quick calculation, if we get 0c for Jan, it will be the coldest Dec-Jan CET since 62/63

Might be wrong there though, only for a bit of fun anyway! Shows how un-modern this winter is anyway.

[Snowyowl9]

January

1963 was -2.1c

1979 -0.4c

So far January 1985 comes out as the closet reminder to me for this cold spell so far.

1985 0.8c

1987 0.8c

[kold weather]

CET tracker update time

Upto the 3rd:

Jan 1979---- -3.33C (-0.4)

Jan 1997---- -2.03C (2.5)

Jan 1940---- -1.53C (-1.4)

Jan 1868---- -1.23C (3.9)

Jan 1963---- -0.63C (-2.1)

Jan 2010--- -0.2C

Jan 2009---- -0.13C (3.0)

Jan 1894---- 0.03C (3.2)

Jan 1985---- 2.46C (0.8 )

Jan 2010 should start to climb the list from now on, esp as today should come in decently below 0C...

[Optimus Prime]

Kold...what CET are you using? Manley and Hadley haven't updated yet.

To the 4th

Netweather -0.8c

Metcheck -0.9c

Theweatheroutlook -1.9c (RAW -1.1c)

I'd say we're sitting around -1.0c at the moment.

[kold weather]

They have OP, just need to know where to look thats all:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2010

Its deffo -0.2C offically on the Hadobs.

[Stu_London]

The operational GFS run of the 18z is quite simply the most insane cold run I have ever seen.

Were it to verify, the CET would be -2.2C by the end of the high resolution part of the run. (11th Jan). By the end of FI (20th) it would be -2.5C. This would leave us needing the period 21/1 to 31/1 being in excess of 4.5C just to avoid the Jan CET being negative.

[kold weather]

Without a doubt the coldest run I've ever seen Stu...and amazingly comes so very very close to breaking it down by the 13th...

Still I think the first 10 days are going to be up there with some of the coldest of all time looking at the trends...

After that and seems like real uncertainty is developing, the GFS and its ensembles seem to get closer and closer to toppling the whole lot, the ECM however has a different synoptic evolution that would see us through to mid month.

Regardless, looking more and more certain we are going to get a sub 3C month, just a matter of how cold...at this stage nearly anything could happen.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The operational GFS run of the 18z is quite simply the most insane cold run I have ever seen.

Were it to verify, the CET would be -2.2C by the end of the high resolution part of the run. (11th Jan). By the end of FI (20th) it would be -2.5C. This would leave us needing the period 21/1 to 31/1 being in excess of 4.5C just to avoid the Jan CET being negative.

That is quite staggering!

A sub zero Jan CET certainly would be an anomaly going by the past 15 years at least!

[Duncan McAlister]

If the ECM 0z came off, make no mistake, we'd be looking at one of the coldest Januaries on record.

Incidentally, will this cold now make any difference to any future mild we might get? I.e. so much cold still retained in the ground that a mild flow will have less impact on the air temperature. The reverse happened in August 2006, northerlies weren't that cold because of the latent heating from the earlier summer.

[reef]

Hadley is now on -0.7C to the 4th. Yesterday came in at -2.2C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2010

Another cold one today with the min down as -5.3C. Maxima look very supressed to it'll be another day well below zero. Needless to say if the ECM were to come off we'd be considerably below zero by the 15th.

[kold weather]

Yep Reef very cold night again so looking like another day decently below 0C...

Actually maxes probably were too high yesterday so we may see a slight downward adjustment at the end of the month to yesterday.

Ayway both GFS and the ECM suggesting cold lasting till mid-month, after that hints that the jet is starting to become stronger, however we will be still decently below 0C by this point so going to have to be some major upwards adjustments to get much above 2C.

[Optimus Prime]

I suspect it won't take much to get near to 3.0c. Remember what happened in 2006? March was about 2.8c upto the 18th and yet rose massively to 4.9c to the 31st. Cold - yes but nowhere near as cold as what it could have been. I remember that month we were all talking about how there was no mild on the horizon.

I don't think that will happen this month but we have to bear this in mind, especially on the record since 1997.

CET to the 4th is is -0.7c

Winter to the 4th 2.6c 2.4c below normal.

Dec 2008-January 4th 2009 3.1c

Dec 1996-January 4th 1997 2.4c

Dec 1995-January 4th 1996 2.5c

Dec 1981-January 4th 1982 1.0c

Dec 1978-January 4th 1979 3.1c

Dec 1962-January 4th 1963 1.5c

Compare these to

Dec 2006-January 4th 2007 6.6c

Dec 1934-January 4th 1935 7.6

[stewfox]

I suspect it won't take much to get near to 3.0c. Remember what happened in 2006? March was about 2.8c upto the 18th and yet rose massively to 4.9c to the 31st. Cold - yes but nowhere near as cold as what it could have been. I remember that month we were all talking about how there was no mild on the horizon.

I don't think that will happen this month but we have to bear this in mind, especially on the record since 1997.

How can you compare end of March where temps can hit 15/16/17c during the day to end of Jan ?

If we assumed the last 10 days of January were mild you would still be talking of max (averaged out) at cira 8/9c during the day and mins 1/2c at night.

If we are still around 0 CET cira 13th Jan, a sub 3c is 'nailed' unless it was to get exceptionally mild

[Optimus Prime]

The mild spell at the end of March would be achievable at this time of the year. 15c-18c was fairly widespread and can be so even in January.

A mind month CET of 0 would NOT nail a sub 3c. The second half would need to average only 6c in order for the month as a whole to come in above 3.0c...absolutely achievable. You have got to take into account recent years which has been very mild. February last year had a first half average of 1.3c and yet still ended up at 4.1c.

Taking into account the climate and what we have had in the very recent of years

0c or below 10%

0c-1c 15%

1c-2c 45%

3c-4c 25%

4c+ 5%

[Weather-history]

11th December-4th January CET: 1.1C

The mid December-mid January CET is going to be very interesting

16th December - 4th January CET: 0.5C

16th-December - 15th January 1982 CET: -0.4C

The mild spell at the end of March would be achievable at this time of the year. 15c-18c was fairly widespread and can be so even in January.

18C can be achieved in January but only likely at a fohn site. The record is 18.3C and that was recorded at a site renowned for the fohn effect. It is not likely that a CET station could record those type of maxima.

[stewfox]

The mild spell at the end of March would be achievable at this time of the year. 15c-18c was fairly widespread and can be so even in January.

A mind month CET of 0 would NOT nail a sub 3c. The second half would need to average only 6c in order for the month as a whole to come in above 3.0c...absolutely achievable. You have got to take into account recent years which has been very mild. February last year had a first half average of 1.3c and yet still ended up at 4.1c.

I concur it’s a theoretically possibility to hit 15c for the last 10 days running in Jan,

I concur it’s a theoretically possibility for the CET in 2^nd half of January to be one of the mildest ever

I concur nothing is theoretically ‘nailed’ till the last minute of the month

Ps my -0.4c looks more likely

[Optimus Prime]

Stew...a 6.0c second half wouldnt be that near to record breaking.

[kold weather]

No your quite right OP BUT I think your going to need even more 6C to reach 3C!

Mid month probably will be closer to -1C then 0C...

Still it would need a decent synoptic shift, the GFS certainly could come close given its trying to brekadown the set-up on some of the ensembles but we shall see, a total 360 would be needed in the global set-up, of course it could happen though!

[Optimus Prime]

No Kold course it won't happen. But I'm just trying to state its well within scientific reasoning that 3c isn't out of reach.

My 0.2c is looking good

[kold weather]

Yep, very bitter 18z run yet again!

Also worth noting the models are probably rather overdoing the temps, I fully expect some days will only max out at -2/3/4C where that snow settles thickly, so we have a real good shot at some days coming out at -4/5/6C in the CET zone.

Anyway I haven't done a CET tracker today, will do one tomorrow, needless to say I'm now nearly 100% certain this first 10 ays will be the coldest since 1894!!!