North West Cold Spell Discussion

[Weather-history]

Whats the winter index??

A measurement on how "wintry" a winter was. Depends on number of occasions of frosts, falling sleet/snow and lying snow being recordedand also the mean winter maximum temperature average

The higher the value, the more wintry it was.

[karyo]

According to the latest bbc forecast, the band of precipitatio coming slowly north over our region will weaken considerably overnight, so unlikely to lead to any measurable accumulations of snow.

At least it is looking slightly delayed, so we should get a frost before the cloud arrives: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

Karyo

[trickydicky]

Model nerds on their thread are talking about just a short lived mild blip and then a return to cold via a North Easterly. I'm gonna pray that our snow holds up through the mild blip and we dont get any rain, that way with more than likely clear skies from a NE wind we could get some proper cold nights. I had -8 at 9am on Saturday morning and that was with a mere dusting, I want to see what I can get with a 6 inch covering.

[Snow free zone]

Chaos on the roads round here this morning. Heavy hail shower earlier has frozen to the roads, no grit and all the major roads are like a skating rink. Minor accidents all over the place it has just taken my wife over an hr to drive a mile to Sainsburys. Still showers out there, but going South of here atm. Not as much melt as i'd thought either i am sure snow will be here for Christmas day.

[Backtrack]

My inch of hail is slowly thawing. 2.0c. Need night to hurry up.

BBC say heavy snow tonight for my area.

BRING IT ON!!!

[Backtrack]

Scrap the thawing post - It's 100% ice underneathe a very thin layer of snow and hail. No chance of a melt apart from on rooftops!

[SP1986]

its thawing quite quickly here, but then it is 4C!

[karyo]

My inch of hail is slowly thawing. 2.0c. Need night to hurry up.

BBC say heavy snow tonight for my area.

BRING IT ON!!!

Don't raise your hopes for tonight! The forecast is talking for very light precipitation. The heavy precipitation is recerved for the east of the Pennines.

Karyo

[les1234]

Just been on the model thread and they are saying this cold spell looks like continuing for some time for us northwesters and northerners with some good snow falls any were up from the midlands i hope there wright ,i do remember the winters of the 70&80s and this one is shaping up to be a winter to remember with snow for the last 6 days and low temps fingers crossed we get some today so it can total days on the run.There does seem to be a thaw at the moment but only in the sun we still have icicles at the back of the house and lots of snow.

[chris78]

fair thaw going on here in Preston too ...wonder if that band nmoving north will amount too much......may be too warm here when it hits

[Dingwantssnow]

A measurement on how "wintry" a winter was. Depends on number of occasions of frosts, falling sleet/snow and lying snow being recordedand also the mean winter maximum temperature average

The higher the value, the more wintry it was.

Ha ha cheers for tht mate. This winter shaping up to be more wintry than 88. And with what GP has been suggesting and what the models are now spewing out looks like were in for the long haul on this one

[Backtrack]

The way I see it,

Tonight will depend on how fast your temperature can drop before it goes cloudy. If it doesn't drop below 0c before the cloud rolls in, it will almost definatley be of sleet/hail or rain.

Good luck to everyone tonight.

[Dingwantssnow]

The way I see it,

Tonight will depend on how fast your temperature can drop before it goes cloudy. If it doesn't drop below 0c before the cloud rolls in, it will almost definatley be of sleet/hail or rain.

Good luck to everyone tonight.

You missed the imprtant one.....snow!!!

[sconetone]

Drove into Preston this morning from Leyland just as that big hail shower started.

What a mess the roads were. Cars sliding all over the place. Stopped at some traffic lights and the fella on the inside lane thought it would be ok to wait till the last second to brake. Slip, slide BANG! right into the side barrier rail. Luckily was only going fairly slow so no injury.

Good job he didn't slide in he other direction or he would have hit me. The prawn got out of his car and he was only young so I guess not used to this sort of Winter, but still lacking common sense....

On way back to Leyland saw a couple more cars facing in odd directions.

[SP1986]

Winter tyres would go down well.

[cheshire snow]

Whilst Manchester north have enjoyed the snow this week tonight is possibly the turn for more southern regions

To have a bit of the Action not expecting much and could be marginal but at least it was nice to see the blobs of

White for tonight on the bbc forecast for those areas that have so far missed out

Good look to all

And to everyone have a safe and very merry Christmas

C.S

[Snow free zone]

Really thawing quickly here atm, that burst of heavy rain we've just had has speeded things up a bit. Just dug the drive out again for the third morning running. When it freezes tonight god help anyone walking on the pavements round here who is not wearing ice skates. Meto forecast is for heavy snow here tonight what's the chances of this ?

[Weather-history]

Manchester Airport mentions a freezing rain possibility

long-TAF: EGCC 231105Z 2312/2418 16010KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 2315/2318 10006KT BECMG 2320/2323 6000 BKN012 TEMPO 2320/2410 RASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2320/2324 1500 SN FZRA BKN001 PROB40 2400/2412 1200 BR BKN001 PROB40 2412/2418 9999 SCT012

Temporary

from 23 at 20 UTC to 23 at 24 UTC

Visibility 1500 m

Broken clouds at a height of 100 ft

snow and freezing rain

[Dingwantssnow]

Winter tyres would go down well.

Yeh i suspect that most cars have a dry/wet tyre and not for snow/ice. I know for one my car isnt doing to well with the snow/ice/slush

[chris78]

Really thawing quickly here atm, that burst of heavy rain we've just had has speeded things up a bit. Just dug the drive out again for the third morning running. When it freezes tonight god help anyone walking on the pavements round here who is not wearing ice skates. Meto forecast is for heavy snow here tonight what's the chances of this ?having said h

I think the roads were worse they have been during this snap today....with this thaw and clear skies ...could be even worse tomorrow....

Having said that its pretty warm here now even under clear skies....will it get cold enough to freeze here???

[NiikAURA]

Very little in the way of thawing here, an inch of snow still remains from saturday night.

Temperature -1.1C

[karyo]

Manchester Airport mentions a freezing rain possibility

long-TAF: EGCC 231105Z 2312/2418 16010KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 2315/2318 10006KT BECMG 2320/2323 6000 BKN012 TEMPO 2320/2410 RASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2320/2324 1500 SN FZRA BKN001 PROB40 2400/2412 1200 BR BKN001 PROB40 2412/2418 9999 SCT012

Temporary

from 23 at 20 UTC to 23 at 24 UTC

Visibility 1500 m

Broken clouds at a height of 100 ft

snow and freezing rain

Mr Data, I am not very familiar with the airport forecasts - do they ever mention the intensity of expected precipitation? For tonight, I think the word 'light' would be a meaningful addition!

Karyo

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, I am not very familiar with the airport forecasts - do they ever mention the intensity of expected precipitation? For tonight, I think the word 'light' would be a meaningful addition!

Karyo

They actually do mention light and heavy preciptation in these METARs

- means light

+ means heavy

Therefore they are going for moderate intensity.

[karyo]

They actually do mention light and heavy preciptation in these METARs

- means light

+ means heavy

Therefore they are going for moderate intensity. :lol:

Thank you, this makes things clearer!

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thank you, this makes things clearer!

Karyo

GOing to be very marginal for most of us tonight!

Places over 250 -300m should be ok id have thought but a mix of rain/sleet/snow look odds on for most of us.

Hopefully the system moves more NE keeping it clearer over the NW.