Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 6

[Mondy]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Scotland doesn't get icy roads, -10C must be too low for ice. The carbon dioxide will be condensing on the roads before they warn us about it.

That sums up the MetO to me - they don't actually care about Scotland or are too self interested in other aspects of forecasting!

[Sunny Leith]

Have you got snow cover with that cold FJ ? None too shabby and looks like you're -10c bound or lower !

is it really -11c there its -8.5c here now but still -11c i doubt it..... i wonder how low they can get!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I keep pinching my arm to make sure this isn't all some kind of weird dream. Not only is the potential immense, the reality of what has happened recently is immense too. My Aunt was visiting my Grandad (who lives about 3 miles south from here) yesterday and it took her 4 hours to get home to Dundonald in Ayrshire, which is about 25 miles to the south. I've been a whisker away from serious bumper snowfalls which could have left me with a foot or more of snow. As it is I have a covering of snow, today was the first day when we didn't have snowfall since Thursday last week and the whole place is shrouded in proper freezing fog. And then we have quite good agreement on further cold spells, and the charts for around New Year are just breath taking.

'mon the snow!!

It has been really something hasn't it. I recall the beginning of it, three weeks ago when the 'pub run' decided at 180 hours to build a high over central France and move it north, proceeding to build an easterly then a northerly way out into FI. Straw-clutching, many of us looked out the archives and found almost every major cold spell there has ever been started in this fashion.No one seriously expected it to happen, though. 3 weeks later, here we are, having had the snowiest week in my memory with Edinburgh airport recording -11C and with Boxing Day looking like bringing more sleet/snow and then things getting colder again after. Not only that, I've suddenly started beating the Met Office at forecasting snow events!! It does seem like a dream actually, I'm just so in awe of the way things are going. I wonder if the charts in 62/63 would've been as good as the ones we've seen this December - definitely beats 10C and rain!!

LS

[frostyjoe]

Have you got snow cover with that cold FJ ? None too shabby and looks like you're -10c bound or lower !

i have a little bit of snow about 3 inches on the grass which is frozen hard and a totty covering on the concrete... then the mountain behind me has about 9/10 inches on it!!!!! about the airport website does it have every airport in the uk? everyday i go over that mountain and since sunday 2-4 cars have been crashed each day!

Edited December 23, 2009 by frostyjoe

[Guest]

That sums up the MetO to me - they don't actually care about Scotland or are too self interested in other aspects of forecasting!

I would usually defend the Met-O but they have been rubbish this cold spell up here. I am not going to go too deeply into the whole missing out on the 80% chance of heavy snow three warnings on the trot. Then they missed the NE's snow. Tonight with temps into double digits below freezing in the north and east and some of the thickest fog I have ever seen there is no warning?? Visibility here is <100m, there must be a lot of ice out there too, surely??

It has been really something hasn't it. I recall the beginning of it, three weeks ago when the 'pub run' decided at 180 hours to build a high over central France and move it north, proceeding to build an easterly then a northerly way out into FI.

It was suggested by certain people on the model thread that members who posted amazing charts from FI (which were repeated time after time) were clutching at straws.....not that I'm bitter

[Sunny Leith]

Its utterly utterly perverse CMD ! It makes no sense to issue warnings for ice tonight as the met-office have currently done for virtually all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland ... and to NOT do exactly the same for Scotland for all the same reasons...

I'm not being the touchy Scot here. I'm being the" straight down the middle this makes no sense" Scot

I would usually defend the Met-O but they have been rubbish this cold spell up here. I am not going to go too deeply into the whole missing out on the 80% chance of heavy snow three warnings on the trot. Then they missed the NE's snow. Tonight with temps into double digits below freezing in the north and east and some of the thickest fog I have ever seen there is no warning?? Visibility here is <100m, there must be a lot of ice out there too, surely??

It was suggested by certain people on the model thread that members who posted amazing charts from FI (which were repeated time after time) were clutching at straws.....not that I'm bitter :lol:

[shuggee]

I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

I would usually defend the Met-O but they have been rubbish this cold spell up here. I am not going to go too deeply into the whole missing out on the 80% chance of heavy snow three warnings on the trot. Then they missed the NE's snow. Tonight with temps into double digits below freezing in the north and east and some of the thickest fog I have ever seen there is no warning?? Visibility here is <100m, there must be a lot of ice out there too, surely??

They have been abysmal. Many people have lost faith with the Met Office around here - 1 warning and 1 advisory for the entire spell, and the warning was issued at 5am today for 2-5cm of snow, when there was already more than that here!! And in spite of the snow depths over 10cms in at least 50% of Scotland, temperatures widely below -5C with airports reporting -11C, freezing fog thick in many places and the increasing threat of more snow showers for eastern areas tomorrow, there is precisely no warning, while parts of England with 4C and rain have a warning. Sometimes I wonder if the Scottish Met Office already exists and we just haven't found out about it yet...

[Sunny Leith]

I would imagine that a bunch of grapes (for example) would freeze quite rapidly at that temperature

I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door :lol: :lol:

[shuggee]

Reluctantly I have to agree LS. Shocking.

I would imagine that a bunch of grapes (for example) would freeze quite rapidly at that temperature

Oh aye :lol:

[almac]

Just a reminder to all you nowcasters out there that this site is most useful.... (and it's free!!!!).... www.raintoday.co.uk/

Especially handy to keep an eye on that fast approaching band from Down Sowf.

[Big Innes Madori]

I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door

Hi Shuggee,

After sitting catching up on some of the posts this from this evening and reading about how cold it is in some areas, I thought I would just nip out to the back garden and have a wee swatch at the old thermometer.

It is only -7.5 Deg C, here, but I had to shovel a wee path to get there and cheking the snow depth I can tell you that it is a level 9" (22.8 cm)

I Was a bout two hours digging the car oot o' the drive this afternoon (no work today)

Big Innes

[Guest]

Was anyone watching the late news on ITV/STV there?? They appeared to show moving pictures of ice forming on the tidal (i.e. salt water) River Clyde in the centre of Glasgow, just outside the STV studios.

Seriously, it was ice. On salt water!!!

[Sunny Leith]

To concur with LS, at some point in the last 10-20 years (and I can't remember when...maybe its been gradual) ... the metoffice/bbc weather have taken it more and more upon themselves to double up as travel advisors ... "drive carefull out there, roads in yorkshire will be icy in the morning" kind of thing. All good and well I suppose, I can see the sense in them taking some of that role upon themselves...

..but if they're going to do that then the impact of getting their underlying forecast wrong becomes more deeply frustrating. If people get to depend on the MO/Beeb for travel advice as part of the weather forecast, then things can come badly unstuck. My wife drives to Wishaw and back every day. This last week that means driving up and across the mate/Harthill/North Lanarkshire tundra. When she went to bed last night, there was absolutely NO advance indication or warning of this mornings blizzard (and in local terms thats exactly what it was). Luckily it struck here before she would have normally left - and looking at the 6AM whiteout she knew it wasn't going to happen. However if it had come later - with no warning - she could have been 20-30 minutes into her drive , and then put in a very dangerous situation heading out to the mate.

All the met-office had to do, was to be as diligent as many on here ... and you were one of several people here making the forecast that proved to be ultimately spot-on. Consequently I'm basing my advice to her tomorrow on what I can see and interpret from here. Theres more insight, local knowledge and plain common-sense on here, than I'm going to get from the MO/BBC

They have been abysmal. Many people have lost faith with the Met Office around here - 1 warning and 1 advisory for the entire spell, and the warning was issued at 5am today for 2-5cm of snow, when there was already more than that here!! And in spite of the snow depths over 10cms in at least 50% of Scotland, temperatures widely below -5C with airports reporting -11C, freezing fog thick in many places and the increasing threat of more snow showers for eastern areas tomorrow, there is precisely no warning, while parts of England with 4C and rain have a warning. Sometimes I wonder if the Scottish Met Office already exists and we just haven't found out about it yet...

Edited December 23, 2009 by by-tor

[Guest]

I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door :p

Where's the film Shuggs??? I'm sure many NetWeatherians would pay good money to see that one :)

[shuggee]

Hi Shuggee,

After sitting catching up on some of the posts this from this evening and reading about how cold it is in some areas, I thought I would just nip out to the back garden and have a wee swatch at the old thermometer.

It is only -7.5 Deg C, here, but I had to shovel a wee path to get there and cheking the snow depth I can tell you that it is a level 9" (22.8 cm)

I Was a bout two hours digging the car oot o' the drive this afternoon (no work today)

Big Innes

To qoute our cousins in the west, it's pure dead brilliant. That's a lot of snow.

Where's the film Shuggs??? I'm sure many NetWeatherians would pay good money to see that one :)

It'll be a 15 certificate

[Mondy]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

A disgrace.

Not even a "flash" warning of freezing fog affecting the thousands of us. The warnings stop short at the border.

You really begin to wonder how inept they are ---- surely they can't be inept as gritters?

[Guest]

It'll be a 15 certificate

Just a 15?

ITV weather has just shown a "wintery mix" for tomorrow afternoon moving into the south of Scotland. Is that a wintery mix of snow and snow??

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi Shuggee,

After sitting catching up on some of the posts this from this evening and reading about how cold it is in some areas, I thought I would just nip out to the back garden and have a wee swatch at the old thermometer.

It is only -7.5 Deg C, here, but I had to shovel a wee path to get there and cheking the snow depth I can tell you that it is a level 9" (22.8 cm)

I Was a bout two hours digging the car oot o' the drive this afternoon (no work today)

Big Innes

Congratulations Innes, that surely makes up for last winter now! I've got about 5 inches here, about 7'' at my dad's house in Strathmiglo, so I'm happy enough with that! We might be in for more snow tomorrow, then Boxing Day is looking more and more snowy before the real cold kicks in after!! Crazy, crazy weather, but absolutely brilliant - building an igloo tomorrow out of the hard frozen snow bricks I layed out this evening!! Enjoy your snow, not that it's going anywhere fast!

LS

[LadyPakal]

I've just run outside into the 6 inches of snow in my shorts to experience this -11ºC. Coldest temp I've ever been in - 'twas like opening the freezer door :D

Just heard a report on Sky about a wee blue man running about in his pants... was that you then? *tongue firmly in cheek*

[Big Innes Madori]

Congratulations Innes, that surely makes up for last winter now! I've got about 5 inches here, about 7'' at my dad's house in Strathmiglo, so I'm happy enough with that! We might be in for more snow tomorrow, then Boxing Day is looking more and more snowy before the real cold kicks in after!! Crazy, crazy weather, but absolutely brilliant - building an igloo tomorrow out of the hard frozen snow bricks I layed out this evening!! Enjoy your snow, not that it's going anywhere fast!

LS

Aye cheers CW

Just like auld times, digging the car oot o' the drive AND it was dry powder snow (Pure Alpine Man )

Big Innes

[Sunny Leith]

Its amzing how many "showers", "wintry showers" and "wintry mixes" we've had up here this past week courtesy of the met-office and the data they supply to the TV and media outlets.

As you observe, some of this has even been seen to fall as outright snow in some areas

Just a 15?

ITV weather has just shown a "wintery mix" for tomorrow afternoon moving into the south of Scotland. Is that a wintery mix of snow and snow??

[Mondy]

Just a 15?

ITV weather has just shown a "wintery mix" for tomorrow afternoon moving into the south of Scotland. Is that a wintery mix of snow and snow??

That's the snow you can clearly see gathering pace now from south to north on any radar/sat shots. Interesting formation: http://www.sat24.com/ - haven't checked any of the Midlands or North England threads, Wales too - are they reporting rain/sleet?

[LomondSnowstorm]

To concur with LS, at some point in the last 10-20 years (and I can't remember when...maybe its been gradual) ... the metoffice/bbc weather have taken it more and more upon themselves to double up as travel advisors ... "drive carefull out there, roads in yorkshire will be icy in the morning" kind of thing. All good and well I suppose, I can see the sense in them taking some of that role upon themselves...

..but if they're going to do that then the impact of getting their underlying forecast wrong becomes more deeply frustrating. If people get to depend on the MO/Beeb for travel advice as part of the weather forecast, then things can come badly unstuck. My wife drives to Wishaw and back every day. This last week that means driving up and across the mate/Harthill/North Lanarkshire tundra. When she went to bed last night, there was absolutely NO advance indication or warning of this mornings blizzard (and in local terms thats exactly what it was). Luckily it struck here before she would have normally left - and looking at the 6AM whiteout she knew it wasn't going to happen. However if it had come later - with no warning - she could have been 20-30 minutes into her drive , and then put in a very dangerous situation heading out to the mate.

All the met-office had to do, was to be as diligent as many on here ... and you were one of several people here making the forecast that proved to be ultimately spot-on. Consequently I'm basing my advice to her tomorrow on what I can see and interpret from here. Theres more insight, local knowledge and plain common-sense on here, than I'm going to get from the MO/BBC

Thanks, the NMM has suddenly switched to a lighter band of showers just hugging the coast from Dunbar to Berwick, and later from Montrose to Stonehaven. This seems a little more plausible in my opinion, given the fairly benign and weakening look of the band moving north. Time will tell, but I'm not convinced tomorrow will deliver anything more than a passing flurry in most inland areas. I doubt convection will be much to right home about either, given the flow is very slack, but it may all change by the morning of course! Keep watching the radar, the forum and, most crucially, the skies! Boxing Day looks like more of an event than tomorrow, with the PPN still likely to be snow in the centre and east of Scotland. If I could issue weather warnings, I'd maybe issue an advisory for east lothian and eastern Angus for perhaps potentially an inch or so but nothing else. As for boxing day, an advisory for most of Scotland, though moreso in the east than west, with the potential for maybe freezing rain in the west also. Anyway, I'm getting a bit carried away

Night, and Merry Christmas

LS

[Guest]

That's the snow you can clearly see gathering pace now from south to north on any radar/sat shots. Interesting formation: http://www.sat24.com/ - haven't checked any of the Midlands or North England threads, Wales too - are they reporting rain/sleet?

Temp has rocketed up to -5C at 11.20pm at Glasgow Airport from -7C at 10.20pm.

As for the precip band, I have been keeping half an eye on it on the radar. A very thin band, but it is progressing nicely. Now between Liverpool and Blackpool on the west coast and Bridlington on the east coast heading N. If my geography isn't as bad as my grasp on reality