Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 6

[Sunny Leith]

In saying that though Snow1975, you are 130 metres ASL so I guess that might be the reason why in this case.. You're probably making up for it in windchill though !

Only -0.3C here at the moment with still some cloud overhead.

-8C at Edinburgh airport!

[Ross B]

The snow looks a little more organised than flurries on the latest BBC forecast for SE Scotland tomorrow and lasts for a good few hours, one to look out for I think!

Maximum temperature in Glasgow tomorrow was also -3c. Not surprised really considering it's -8c now with fog/mist patches.

[Norrance]

Just back from sledging with the kids. Currently -3.7C here in Dundee making the snow quite powdery after being rather wet this morning. Max today 0.9C. Min at midnight was -6C.

-14C at 9pm last night at my mum's in Aberfeldy, Perthshire with a max of -5.5C for the day yesterday.

[Stuart]

The snow looks a little more organised than flurries on the latest BBC forecast for SE Scotland tomorrow and lasts for a good few hours, one to look out for I think!

Maximum temperature in Glasgow tomorrow was also -3c. Not surprised really considering it's -8c now with fog/mist patches.

If that happen I will miss it

[Sunny Leith]

<SARCASM>I'm sure the metoffice are on the case and will either issue warnings during or after any snow event, or more likely just not mention it at all.</SARCASM>

I don't want to sound too sycophantic about NetWeather - and I'm only on here when its snowing LOL - but if I want to know whats likely to happen during this spell at a local level , then I'm going to come here to get the scoop. BBC Scotland/metoffice just haven't done accurate local forecasting up here during this spell.

The snow looks a little more organised than flurries on the latest BBC forecast for SE Scotland tomorrow and lasts for a good few hours, one to look out for I think!

Edit: if anything was to come this way tomorrow (and I'm uncertain... but as last night showed I know nuffink !) then it would be another remarkable feature of this spell. Snow would have fallen here arriving from the E, the N, the SW, the W, the N again ... and then maybe from the SE. Incredible !As well as giving 8 consecutive days with snow falling. Remarkable !

Edited December 23, 2009 by by-tor

[Mondy]

Snow anyone :-)

http://www.sat24.com/

Check out the cloud moving SW to NE - like a repeat of yesterday in opposite direction LOL

[NorthernRab]

If that happen I will miss it

We want to miss it, let the river Ness do it's freezing fog magic and keep is in proper deep cold (without snowcover freezing fog causes lows of -12'C in Sneck) until the main bands of precipitation arrive!

[bingobob777]

why when it's -8c already in Glasgow are all the major weather sites predicting a minimum of -4c?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Snow anyone :-)

http://www.sat24.com/

Check out the cloud moving SW to NE - like a repeat of yesterday in opposite direction LOL

Not sure I can take anymore out of the blue snow events! I just really do not want the snowcover to melt on Boxing Day, although the PPN on Boxing Day looks more likely to be snow in eastern areas than it did a few days ago. As for tomorrow, any precipitation will definitely be snow, considering most places are progged for an ice day, so I doubt very much it will be anything like marginal. areas in the firing line are the Borders, particularly from Jedburgh to Berwick, while there is also a risk of the PPN getting into the Lothians, Fife, eastern Angus and even parts of the central belt. The NMM, which was praised highly for it's performance overnight, is going for it, bringing it even further north than what was forecast by the Met Office, with Fife taking the brunt of the belt, though the NMM shows it being pretty marginal in terms of dew points, though it currently has dew points about 5C higher than what they actually are, so probably not too marginal at all, even in coastal eastern areas. I believe it also showed dew points a tad too high overnight last night, so I wouldn't really worry about that. Anyway, the precipitation map for 8am:

4pm:

What surprised me was the duration of the (we must assume) snowfall for eastern Fife and how far north it pushes. It's now a case of nowcasting and radar watching, though surely we must all have something better to do tomorrow? Come on, it's Christmas Eve for goodness sake, don't waste precious holidays on a weather forum!!!

Tulloch Bridge now a tantalising 0.1C off Loch Glascarnoch at -11.7C and -11.8C respectively. I reckon Tulloch Bridge has the edge as usual but I doubt Dalwhinnie will be quite as low tonight as there appears to be some cloudcover around the northeast.

LS

Edited December 23, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Sunny Leith]

And Embra reporting -9c just now.

Should be a no-brainer for forecasters to predict -10c or worse (wouldn't be surprised to see Embra or Glasgow hit -12c)

55 degrees north ... 10cm+ of snow cover ... light winds ... clear skies ... almost 18 hours of darkness...

I think a lot of these predictions are "automated" forecasts ie a real met-person never even gets near the forecast.

why when it's -8c already in Glasgow are all the major weather sites predicting a minimum of -4c?

[Mondy]

EDI airport - 9c // DP - 10c

[Guest]

And Embra reporting -9c just now.

Should be a no-brainer for forecasters to predict -10c or worse (wouldn't be surprised to see Embra or Glasgow hit -12c)

55 degrees north ... 10cm+ of snow cover ... light winds ... clear skies ... almost 18 hours of darkness...

I think a lot of these predictions are "automated" forecasts ie a real met-person never even gets near the forecast.

Many of them may well be automatic

Some drifting fog has just wafted over the braes to our east and settled down over the village where I live.

So: a covering of snow on the ground, way below zero temps and now thick fog. It could only get more Christmasy if Santa and his reindeer flew past!!! I have never used this smilie before but I do feel now is an appropriate time (and not when commenting on a chart deep in F.I. in the model thread):

Sorry for all the whinging about missing out on snow this week, I couldn't care less now

[LomondSnowstorm]

EDI airport - 9c // DP - 10c

-11C now!

[Sunny Leith]

10PM report from Edinburgh now says -11c .. going through the floor. Record there I think is -17c ????

Don't really expect to match or break that ... but its possible they could post the coldest minimum of the last 15 years or so .. think it got to -14c or -15c in the baltic late December 1995 spell (and with a lot less snow cover here at that time).

EDI airport - 9c // DP - 10c

Edited December 23, 2009 by by-tor

[Guest]

-11C now!

(This is to by-tor as well )

I also see that Glasgow Airport has warmed up to -7C with the fog setting in

Even if the precip which is due to come on Xmas Day night into Boxing Day is rain and the air temp is "mild" at 4C it is just going to freeze on contact with ground which is so cold. The travel disruption is going to go on and on and on.

[LomondSnowstorm]

(This is to by-tor as well )

I also see that Glasgow Airport has warmed up to -7C with the fog setting in

Even if the precip which is due to come on Xmas Day night into Boxing Day is rain and the air temp is "mild" at 4C it is just going to freeze on contact with ground which is so cold. The travel disruption is going to go on and on and on.

The weather pattern here is vaguely similar to those in northern USA - big snowfalls, then very cold followed by either more heavy snow or icestorms!!

[Guest]

18z going for it:

That would surely be a snow fest?? :)

Edit: 18z GFS maybe marginal at times for me, but anywhere with altitude or further north is going to get a pasting from the pub run :)

Edited December 23, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[frostyjoe]

10PM report from Edinburgh now says -11c .. going through the floor. Record there I think is -17c ????

Don't really expect to match or break that ... but its possible they could post the coldest minimum of the last 15 years or so .. think it got to -14c or -15c in the baltic late December 1995 spell (and with a lot less snow cover here at that time).

is it really -11c there its -8.5c here now but still -11c i doubt it..... i wonder how low they can get!

[Mondy]

Live ATC from Edinurgh (22:20) says freezing fog patches at temp of -10 / DP -10c

http://www.globaltuners.com/

[LomondSnowstorm]

18z going for it:

That would surely be a snow fest??

I saw that, really quite encouraging, considering we had 4 inches of snow with uppers not even -4 at times last night! In fact, much of our snow has fallen with dew points above freezing, so that would definitely bring snow to pretty much all of Scotland (who have PPN over them of course). The part I like is that even though this is the attempted breakdown, uppers are actually lower than during the majority of the snowfall here! It doesn't look too mild after Boxing Day either:

Not getting milder by any means!!

[frostyjoe]

Live ATC from Edinurgh (22:20) says freezing fog patches at temp of -10 / DP -10c

http://www.globaltuners.com/

is that a live aircraft control thingy?

[Mondy]

is that a live aircraft control thingy?

Yeah, you need to register to listen in. Flights are becoming less now due to time of night, but they have live weather reports on a dedicated frequency..which XC weather and others use to display "current" temps ;-)

[Guest]

I saw that, really quite encouraging, considering we had 4 inches of snow with uppers not even -4 at times last night! In fact, much of our snow has fallen with dew points above freezing, so that would definitely bring snow to pretty much all of Scotland (who have PPN over them of course). The part I like is that even though this is the attempted breakdown, uppers are actually lower than during the majority of the snowfall here! It doesn't look too mild after Boxing Day either:

I keep pinching my arm to make sure this isn't all some kind of weird dream. Not only is the potential immense, the reality of what has happened recently is immense too. My Aunt was visiting my Grandad (who lives about 3 miles south from here) yesterday and it took her 4 hours to get home to Dundonald in Ayrshire, which is about 25 miles to the south. I've been a whisker away from serious bumper snowfalls which could have left me with a foot or more of snow. As it is I have a covering of snow, today was the first day when we didn't have snowfall since Thursday last week and the whole place is shrouded in proper freezing fog. And then we have quite good agreement on further cold spells, and the charts for around New Year are just breath taking.

'mon the snow!!

[Hiya]

Well I was off and about today Cupar -> Dundee -> Perth -> Stirling -> A977 -> Cupar

I seen a lot of snow!

Most pretty snow was between Perth and Stirling.

Stirling had the least amount of snow but was the coldest.

Deepest snow was between Blairngone and Kinross, probably 10" level, 2 foot at the side of the road.

I was surprised about the state of some of the roads at 5pm, compacted snow and black ice all round.

Another surprise snowfall tomorrow? Just when I was coming to terms with no fresh snow until boxing day.

What I want to see for a bash at a good low temp is a station sitting at -14C at say 1600, we had it yesterday but the cloud spoiled it, maybe on 24th/25th could be the next shot.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Scotland doesn't get icy roads, -10C must be too low for ice. The carbon dioxide will be condensing on the roads before they warn us about it.

LS don't discount Dalwhinnie tonight, it isn't that far from Tulloch Bridge as the crow flies and it is higher and further from the coast. With a slight north wind today I think it'll be the lowest max/min today (ie tomorrow nights figure for min). We should have a whip round and pay for an automated station!

[Sunny Leith]

I expect it to go up a bit , down a bit, up a bit, down a bit. I wouldn't even be certain thats its the exact temperature over the whole field.... Overall though it'll go more down than up and I'll stick with -12c as a likely overnight minimum.

Little bit of patchy cloud though or a bit more wind could prevent even that (althouh its 100% cloudless looking out over town) And I guess even now the ground under the snow still has some residual autumnal warmth (relative to the snow cover) ... maybe that puts a limit on things just now. I don't know how the thermal dynamics would work TBH !

Pity theres a possible relative warming by the weekend, we rarely get a chance to test what would happen in these situations of night after night severe frost and the minima that could lead to over a few days of cooling and cooling and cooling. I wonder how many days and nights like this (purely sepeculatively..) would we need to have before Embra or Glasgow would post -20c or -25c airport temperatures ?

Live ATC from Edinurgh (22:20) says freezing fog patches at temp of -10 / DP -10c

http://www.globaltuners.com/

Edited December 23, 2009 by by-tor