Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 6

[gobbyash]

Had a nature call just back of 3am and thought I would check the radar( ) I noticed the blob was almost on top of us and stayed up to watch. Started flurrying here at 3.45am and was fully on by 4am. Within 5 minutes I couldn't see across the street. It was a total whiteout with falling and blowing snow. It stayed like that until 6am. Went back to bed till the dog woke me at 7am and when I let him out it had stopped. Got up again at 8.30am to it snowing heavily and all the dogs footprints covered. Meto were well wrong with this! Without going out and physically measuring, I would say we have had maybe 5".

Wow, what a story

[Methuselah]

There's a quite impressive train of Cbs running NE-SW twenty-or-so miles east of here! :lol:

Otherwise it's cold and bright...

[Sunny Leith]

Just been down the back garden and made a monster family snowman, the snow is in utterly perfect snowman-making condition before the frost gets it later.

Thought I'd save the metoffice issuing a "be-aware" weather alert so here it is.

Avalanche alert for Leith issued at 1240. Be aware of imminent slab and cornice avalanche danger from tenement roofs as people turn up the heating and put the hot chocolate on. End of forecast.

[Sunny Leith]

Massive kudos to all of you on here who called it right for Aberdeen/Angus/Fife/Central/Lothian overnight. Shuggee the precip forcast for 6AM that you posted last night was bang on the money for these parts. Congrats to all. I can scarcely believe that the metoffice are unable to use the tools at their disposal to make local forecasts in this same way. I don't know whether its down to incompetence or their London-centric view of the cold-spell. Either way its inexcusable and just through radar and reporting stations , they should have been able to do a hell of a lot better than they did.

I admit that I didn't call it though LOL ! I crashed on the sofa last night , glanced at the radar at 3AM and saw the big big blob moving southwards down the eastern side. I confess I still expected nothing in Leith ... thinking "snow never gets here this way" and staggered to bed expecting Fife to grab whatever was going . But ... My wife works out Wishaw way and always leaves here early - a bad bad drive these last few days - and when she woke me to the whiteout outside at 6AM, the radar was off the scale in these parts.

Again big congrats and medals to all round here who had the courage to forecast it. The metoffice though ? Bah-bloody-humbug to them !

Well I don't know where to start really. If I could see the radar at midnight meant we would be hit by snow, and the models were predicting it, why were the Meto and BBC in denial - even on the 00h27 News 24 weather there was only talk of showers for 'Aberdeenshire'? Then this morning - 12 to 15cms in the centre of Edinburgh and the 07h55 BBC Breakfast Scottish forecast - sunshine for Edinburgh! And then it snows again for an hour an hour later. Questions need to be asked. Do they not have access to the radar - I might sent them the link to join netweather extra...

Edit: measured level depth in the back garden around 14 to 16 cms at the 6 points I measured. Whether we got more or less snow here because of any "tenament vortex" effect I dunno !

Edited December 23, 2009 by by-tor

[snowy owl]

I agree completely, The forecasts for our area were in denial, no mention of any snow at all far less the pasting we all got. Good job we are members of NW for all the fantastic forecasts and warnings you've given. Thanks to you all. Merry Christmas.

Off out with the sledge shortly.

[JoeShmoe]

16cms in my back garden too

great innit

[Mondy]

12cms fell here between 0500 and 0900 this morning.

Anymore snow forecast? I've had enough of it lol.

As for the MetO (non)forecast - they have a duty to inform the public to the best of their forecasting abilities. They failed on both forecasting and informing because they did neither. Jokers.

[Methuselah]

Okay peeps...So the MetO can't pinpoint convective cells to a street-by-street level of accuracy?? I wish they'd got it 'wrong' here!

[Sunny Leith]

Scottish metoffce woman pulling her punches even just there on todays forecast at the end of the BBC Scotland news. Just using the generic "showers" (not even the old standby of "wintry showers" LOL) for today and Xmas day. So that covers all eventualities as usual....

Not trusting their minimums for tonight either. If skys clear I'd expect -10 in Embra as well as Glasgow. There is a sheet of high cloud though just now though so time will tell as the day wears on.

[Mondy]

Okay peeps...So the MetO can't pinpoint convective cells to a street-by-street level of accuracy?? I wish they'd got it 'wrong' here!

No. You miss the point.

They issued flash alerts to wrong areas. They issued warnings after the snow fell. They failed to inform the general public of a rather large clump of cloud which came off the North Sea late yesterday afternoon, clipping Aberdeenshire early evening.

By using the basic, but good Sat 24 sat webpage, it was clear to many of us the cloud was moving NE to SE. We all saw it. Why didn't the Meto see it? That is why some of us are irked. It's all very well sticking up for them because they forecast correctly for you - they did not forecast for a large majority last night/today - it's the national weather bureau of the UK and they failed badly. No excuses.

I say no more, as it's wasting my time typing about them.

Edit: NE to SW

[LomondSnowstorm]

Haven't measured yet but the depth in the park seemed pretty much the same as the 12th march 2006, so I'm guessing overall 15-17cms, including the 4cm of snow from yesterday. It doesn't look like going away anytime soon though, with 2 ice days and hard frosts coming up making it pretty hard for any snow to melt. I also wish to congratulate all members who contributed to making others more informed about the situation throughout the seemingly never ending cold spell so far and especially to those who were right on the money last night. With close examination of the charts and a bit of common sense, anyone could've predicted this morning better than the Met Office. I hope we can match this accuracy throughout the winter, and show how good Scottish weather forecasting can really be!

LS

[shuggee]

<snip>

Again big congrats and medals to all round here who had the courage to forecast it. The metoffice though ? Bah-bloody-humbug to them !

Edit: measured level depth in the back garden around 14 to 16 cms at the 6 points I measured. Whether we got more or less snow here because of any "tenament vortex" effect I dunno !

Ahh the 'tenament vortex effect" (TVE). A fine subject for a PhD I would suggest.

And yes it is definitely netweather mesoscale model (NMM) 1 - 0 Met Office.

[snow1975]

THere was almost 3'' of fresh snow in a short space of time between 0300-0500hr. Like the previous night, Fife wasn't supposed to get snow according to the forecasts. This snow came down from the north-east. The gritting teams were unprepared, the roads weren't ploughed or gritted for some time.

Before I left for work at 0600hr, I measured the snow and it was 15cm deep. The temperature was -0.5C and rising. The earlier snow fell with a temperature between -1C and -2C, so it was the dry/powdery stuff, which led to slight drifting in the moderate WNW winds. Snowdrifts up to 30cm deep. Easily the deepest snow in December since at least 1981 and the deepest in any month since February 2001! My car got stuck on my driveway so I had to walk 1.5 miles to get to work in Leven.

0900-0900h max temp 0.4C at 0900hr.

Snow depth at 0900hr, 14cm in garden and 12cm in nearby field.

Max temp since 0900hr, 1.5C.

Edited December 23, 2009 by snow1975

[su rui ke]

They've been repeating this 'worst in 20 years' line about the road conditions in Scotland ad nauseam on the BBC. It's certainly nowhere near as bad here as in 1993 (Braer Storm), 1995 (Christmas), 2001 (February) ... How would others rank this current spell for conditions in their area in general?

I am enjoying it though - just don't think it's particularly severe (yet).

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I say no more, as it's wasting my time typing about them.

Indeed, your time could be better spent moaning about something else.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Remarkable consistency at this range from the GFS:

06Z:

12Z:

This would bring more cold and snow to many parts of Scotland over Hogmanay.

edit: ECM 00Z supports this idea as well:

Edited December 23, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[NorthernRab]

They've been repeating this 'worst in 20 years' line about the road conditions in Scotland ad nauseam on the BBC. It's certainly nowhere near as bad here as in 1993 (Braer Storm), 1995 (Christmas), 2001 (February) ... How would others rank this current spell for conditions in their area in general?

I am enjoying it though - just don't think it's particularly severe (yet).

There's atleast six or seven events since the turn of the century which beat the Inverness snow (we've had about 7 inches in total, up to two feet on the surrounding hillside communities), and in terms of cold, it seems Inverness gets atleast an annual week of anticyclonic freezing cold temperatures.

The snow certainly does not been late January, early February of 2003, when in the city centre a foot of snow was recorded and temperatures dipped very low.

However, we have the chance of some very low minimum night time temperatures to come, temperature plummeting away here currently

[LomondSnowstorm]

They've been repeating this 'worst in 20 years' line about the road conditions in Scotland ad nauseam on the BBC. It's certainly nowhere near as bad here as in 1993 (Braer Storm), 1995 (Christmas), 2001 (February) ... How would others rank this current spell for conditions in their area in general?

I am enjoying it though - just don't think it's particularly severe (yet).

I think it has more to do with how widespread it is, not neccesarily the severity in a particular area, as most areas have seen at least 10cm over the last 4 days.

[Guest]

I think it has more to do with how widespread it is, not neccesarily the severity in a particular area, as most areas have seen at least 10cm over the last 4 days.

They've probably had one quote from one person in one area and have now projected that to be across the whole of Scotland when quite clearly it is not the worst conditions in 20 years across Scotland. They should, of course, have simply modified the line to: "some of the worst conditions in 20 years". Then there is no cause for debate. Sloppy journalism??

As for the charts and the ongoing model runs, all I can say is

[Glaswegianblizzard]

This has to be the best snow/cold event of my adult life - or so it seems - and i'm in my late twenties. Its fantastic, must be several cms lying in the south of Glasgow. Yesterday's snowfall was brilliant.

Now with the temperatures dropping away it should be with us for a while. This is the way winters should be! I'm like a kid again.

[Ross B]

I was stuck on the mate for 3-4hours this morning with heavy snow falling!! Must be more than a foot of snow in places

Back here in Kilmarnock and the roads have still not been ploughed or salted...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Beeb going for maxima of 4 or 5 and rain on Saturday - not totally convinced by that really, as I think temperatures might just be low enough for the precipitation to fall as snow. Anyway, the 20 year figure seems a bit odd, considering the famous '93 event and a few more e.g. '95, 2001 - after that. However, given the lack of warning given to gritters in eastern areas this morning, perhaps it's no surprise that so much havoc (though not as much as was created in the south) was caused by the snow this morning. It's certainly the snowiest spell in my memory, though I am only in my teens, and definitely the coldest pre-Christmas spell in a long time. Anyway, tonight is about minima-watching, and although it is currently 1C in balmy Freuchie, temperatures in Loch Glascarnoch are -8.6C (as of 4pm), and at yesterday's cold spot Tulloch Bridge, which, had it been clear last night, would've challenged the minimum temperature record, is -8C. With clear skies expected tonight in all but the far north and northeast and temperatures set to plummet, the beeb has gone for a rather bold prediction of -10C in central Glasgow. If that occured, it would surely be sub -20C somewhere in Scotland, especially given the lack of sunlight at this time of year. Therefore, the only thing that is likely to stop temperatures falling continually until 11am is cloud cover and wind. Also, watch the roads, as I believe grit doesn't work when temperatures get below about -5C.

LS

[su rui ke]

Remarkable consistency at this range from the GFS:

06Z:

12Z:

This would bring more cold and snow to many parts of Scotland over Hogmanay.

Looks like 1978! Or have I got the wrong year?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like 1978! Or have I got the wrong year?

Almost 31 years to the day:

Similar, but there are quite a few differences e.g. slightly stronger blocking over Greenland, lack of a Scandi trough etc.

[stuart316]

Was just in the bookies there and they were commenting on the odds for a white Christmas in Glasgow being slashed to 4/5.