East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 18

[Tom D]

It's the mildest day for over a week here today, currently 3.7c and much of the sno has melted after heavy showery rain yesterday. Overcast and grey at the moment.

[Guest archiesmummy]

we have a barmy 6.1c here and rising! mite sit outside with my mulled wine!

[kold weather]

Yeah last night was quite interesting, driving back actually had sleet and even some proper snowfall for a brief time, have to admit that was what was really surprising, the strength of the precip dragged down the freezing level once again. Also had some pretty impressive hail for a time.

For the next few days we enter a milder air flow, maxes look like getting upto about 6-8C I'd imagine, so probably close to average would be the best way to describe the 26-28/29th then after that things become more interesting again and we should start to get in on the colder act again!

Also, stil lworth watching just in case there is a little bit of sleet tonight, can't rule it out if the core ends up a little bit further west.

[Stu_London]

Still some snow on the ground here (3-4cm)- hoping it holds on until tomorrow. Temps currently 3C so no rapid thaw at present.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead

Wednesday 30/12/09

The far south of England will have outbreaks of snow, this heavier in the south east in the morning.

New Years Eve 31/12/09

A bitterly cold north east wind will prevail across England and Wales today. This will bring in quite a few heavy snow showers to eastern parts of England and Scotland through the day

[Ben_Cambs]

Yep the cold spell starts to the middle of next week according to the current charts

[Optimus Prime]

Just seen the local BBC forecast. 10c for Saturday and a 'balmy' Monday at 12c!

We're definitely going to be snowed in.

[kold weather]

12C for Monday!

I'd be utterly amazed if we came even close to that, mind you the UKMO has a rather different flow then the ECM/GFS which for the same day have a slightly colder flow coming in, granted its not as cold as it has been...

Still lets just say 12C is rather unlikely....10C for Boxing day is possible at a push in the south I suspect however.

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 12z showing temperatures on Monday showing maximums of 4C in the North of the region to 7 or 8C along Kent and the South Coast. But on Tuesday temps on the South Coast up to 10C!

Edited December 24, 2009 by Snowman0697

[nick sussex]

Reports of rain turning to snow across northern France in relation to that low tracking ne towards ne France, if the precip can make it into se England then a chance this could turn wintry as some colder air gets pulled se'wards as the low clears away.

[yamkin]

Here's part of Will Hand's severe cold period forecast: My confidence is moderate and anyone travelling, especially in the south, needs to be aware.

Here's the link: http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_thread/thread/e6b6f29e9182bd87?pli=1

[Neilsouth]

Here's part of Will Hand's severe cold period forecast: My confidence is moderate and anyone travelling, especially in the south, needs to be aware.

Yeh right , a severe light dusting with periods of sleet

Scrooge mode

[rmc1987]

Here's part of Will Hand's severe cold period forecast: My confidence is moderate and anyone travelling, especially in the south, needs to be aware.

Here's the link: http://groups.google...e9182bd87?pli=1

LOL I do like all this talk of a big event coming up. It sounds a bit far fetched.....! It'd take some conditions for that to come off.

[Ben_Cambs]

At the moment the exact timings of next week are still way off being certain. We will have to wait until at least Sunday for some of the details to become a lot more clearer. Brilliant synoptics though! This could be a winter to remember at this rate!

[rmc1987]

At the moment the exact timings of next week are still way off being certain. We will have to wait until at least Sunday for some of the details to become a lot more clearer. Brilliant synoptics though! This could be a winter to remember at this rate!

Eer Why?

[Ben_Cambs]

Eer Why?

What do you mean?And the past decade for winters has been very bad IMO and finally there is some change on the horizon

Edited December 24, 2009 by Snowman0697

[kold weather]

LOL I do like all this talk of a big event coming up. It sounds a bit far fetched.....! It'd take some conditions for that to come off.

Its a classic battleground set-up and therefore somewhere probably get nailed by some very large snowfalls, I'd suggest at the moment that wil lbe the Midlands BUT we are still far enough out that there could yet be major changes and shifts south or north.

One thing that is looking very likely now though is Greenland high reforms again and another -ve NAO session develops in response. As the low eventually clears to its east we are going to start dragging down older NE/NNE winds and it is this period were our greatest shot at yet more snow develops again.

[rmc1987]

What do you mean?

Brilliant synoptics and a winter to remember.......? Why would it be...?

[Ben_Cambs]

Brilliant synoptics and a winter to remember.......? Why would it be...?

It COULD BE. Im not saying it will. The past decade at least has been very bad for cold and snow, I do hope one day a winter not as severe as '63 but as good as '78 or '79 could be repeated

[rmc1987]

Its a classic battleground set-up and therefore somewhere probably get nailed by some very large snowfalls, I'd suggest at the moment that wil lbe the Midlands BUT we are still far enough out that there could yet be major changes and shifts south or north.

One thing that is looking very likely now though is Greenland high reforms again and another -ve NAO session develops in response. As the low eventually clears to its east we are going to start dragging down older NE/NNE winds and it is this period were our greatest shot at yet more snow develops again.

So it could miss parts of the South and South East? This is often the case whereby these areas can miss out on such events. Seems normal to me really.

It COULD BE. Im not saying it will. The past decade at least has been very bad for cold and snow, I do hope one day a winter not as severe as '63 but as good as '78 or '79 could be repeated

Could be then.....surely charts have produced cold/snowy events that haven't occured. I would love to see something like that though so can only hope it is going to come off. However, as I've seen little of decent cold/snow I always feel it is most unlikely.

[kold weather]

So it could miss parts of the South and South East? This is often the case whereby these areas can miss out on such events. Seems normal to me really.

We may well miss out on the battleground but the cold air is going to win out and another cold spell looks highly probable now.

I'd go as far to say that this spell has already been fairly memorable for this region, esp considering its a rare pre-xmas cold spell, they aren't all that common, at least in terms of how cold this has been in East Anglia, some places have had multiple days below freezing, not bad really...

Sure its no exceptional spell but I'd say another cold spell is odds on right now...

Think of the next 4-5 days as a break before the next round of cold air comes down for round two!

Also worth noting the North Sea is now down to about 8-8.5C, so the next cold spell should take it down yet further. The further it goes the less marginal things will be at the coast later in the winter.

Edited December 24, 2009 by kold weather

[jimben]

Yeh right , a severe light dusting with periods of sleet

Scrooge mode

LOL I do like all this talk of a big event coming up. It sounds a bit far fetched.....! It'd take some conditions for that to come off.

Will Hand is a very respected member on uk.sci.weather and has been posting for many, many years, has worked in meterorology

all or most of his life, write off what he has to say at your peril

[Country Boy]

middle of next week looks like a re-run...the white stuff falls and the white flage goes up...

[rmc1987]

Will Hand is a very respected member on uk.sci.weather and has been posting for many, many years, has worked in meterorology

all or most of his life, write off what he has to say at your peril

Well to be fair to him it doesn't take much to cause chaos down here. A few cm's and everything stops!

[shotski]

Still plenty of snow on the ground here, Merry Xmass all.