East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 18

[Ben_Cambs]

Is all this talk of a very cold spell starting next week true or is it just a possibility atm ? And will it bring more snow to the Sout East area ?

At the moment maybe. The Met issued their 6 -15 day forecast yesterday:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow are expected to spread across Wales, southern and central areas of England during Wednesday morning, and then to northern areas later in the day with some significant snowfall possible. Wintry showers are expected over Scotland. Precipitation is more likely to be of rain in far south. Cold with north or northeasterly winds. On Thursday there is s risk of further sleet or snow in northern and eastern areas with cold air spreading southwards. Becoming frosty, especially in the north. Friday and the weekend period look like being in a cold northerly flow with snow showers affecting many areas, especially northern and eastern areas. The following week looks cold with northwesterly winds and wintry showers in the north.

I think most of the region will miss out on Tuesday's event though. But after that as a North Easterly develops, we could do very well out of it

Edited December 26, 2009 by Snowman0697

[matt69l]

At the moment maybe. The Met issued their 6 -15 day forecast yesterday:

I think most of the region will miss out on Tuesday's event though. But after that as a North Easterly develops, we could do very well out of it

I hope so, the snow's only been gone a couple of days here and I'm missing it already!

[PB22]

This thread can be closed now , its 9.3C here and much of the southeast is now around 8C or 9C which is a tad above normal.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Paul B

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Posphoned my Boxing Day bargain shopping trip for a while today as it is pouring down atm. Awful weather - south westerly rubbish that reminds me of that hideous spell of atlantic weather during November and first week of this month.

I'm sure that the south east region cold spell thread will be a hive of activity again though later next week

[Ben_Cambs]

This thread can be closed now , its 9.3C here and much of the southeast is now around 8C or 9C which is a tad above normal.

Dont worry Paul, in just 5 days time this thread will be back to usual!I think some people are only interested in "will it snow?". You have to put the building blocks into place first for the cold, then worry about the PPN later. Almost certain cold spell next week though. I think EA and the SE will do very well in the long term

Edited December 26, 2009 by Snowman0697

[West Sussex Kate]

yep its a boiling 8c today, bring back the snow!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Simon: latest model run suggesting rain tracking north Tuesday morning and turning to snow across much of southern Wales, the Midlands, East Anglia and southern England. This could be heavy and last for several hours. If you are planning on travelling next week, please keep checking back regularly, we could be in for some problems!

From Weather online.

Are they reading the models properly! Yes we want it to snow but this event at the moment looks like bringing RAIN to EA and the SE. After that looks like we could see similar scenes to last week

Regarding Tuesday's event, We dont see -5 Uppers until the end of Wednesday So there could be snow on the back of the front as the colder air undercuts the front. Then is the time to focus for our region, we could see some significant snowfall like last week again. Again there is likely to be in the form of showers, but it wont be until at least Monday until this can be clarified.

And we could have a White New Year:

Edited December 26, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Ben_Cambs]

Good GFS ensembles for our region too. I would ignore the higher Upper temps, way out in FI.

[jennyjane]

Just come back from near Peterborough, while the snow has cleared from here, over there the fields are still white and the back streets icy, so icy in fact that my stepfather had a nasty fall on the icy pavement this morning and hurt his shoulder.Although it was clearing more this morning than what was left on the ground when we got there yesterday.

edit - he also said that in the past couple of days he knew of a couple of other people locally to him who had fallen on the ice and hurt themselves.

Edited December 26, 2009 by jennyjane

[Blake7]

yep its a boiling 8c today, bring back the snow!!

Agreed !

It was a sweaty 10.6c earlier in Ramsgate ;o(

I like the winters to be cold and snowy with the summers hot and sunny ... so bring it on !

[Ben_Cambs]

Theres some very pessimist people on the model page, complaining about one UKMO run. The models are all very inconsistent with eachother at the moment and all very messy.

[Snow Queen one]

Just popped in there had a moan about the bickering and popped out will prob get banned but didn't find any comments helpfull. So how's it looking for us then i hear we could be in for another cold spell Weds of next week. lol Can it be more than before got in laws coming to stay on New Years Day from Glos ;) would be nice if we were snowed in and they couldn't come do you think nature couls help me lol :lol: :lol:

[West Sussex Kate]

ITV weather has just said...........There is the chance of some *SERIOUS* weather next week, for the South snow/rain. The fact they used the word serious, I would be worried!

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 18z run will be very interesting after the latest ECM run.

The main thing to look out for on this run is the positioning of the LP, if it is further south than the previous run then that would be very nice!

Edited December 26, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Snowangel-MK]

Bring it on - green grass here, it's just not looking right after being covered with snow for a week.

Fingers crossed for another covering by early January !

[yamkin]

The following is from TWO Forum courtesy of 'LA2B MeridFlowEuro09'

The game of chess and the Model Output Discussion, is playing a good set with whole of Europe at the Moment- some heavy snow could be on offer for much of Europe and the UK.

The UKMO and ECMWF are appreciably turning the rain and sleet to snow, for Central England - a forecast expectation and SE Central Wales as well, on Tuesday night and through Wednesday.

That could turn to sleet and snow from rain turning to sleet/ snow for the Home Counties that should feature Central London by Wednesday night or more likely during Thursday and quite a good chance as the Low Pressure tracks to our East and SE, fetching in cold NE winds, from Siberia and Scandinavia!.

For parts of N. and NE Scotland Monday and Tuesday further snowfalls as Low Pressure and trofs turn south then hold there coming from the cold northerly flow.

Then over the Weekend into Sunday is FI- is a battle as the cold very cold snow potentially covered (a possible situation on Thursday through to Sunday, and seeing the Low Pressure move ESE from the SW UK- meet the cold air, early on Following week or Sunday after next week and to following Weekend.

There is potential for sleet and snow for Central London come Thursday and into Friday, but on Saturday a ridge of the Iberian High- Azores H. temporarily affects the UK on Saturday- while High Pressure stays put over Central N Europe exactly especially a bit further East and NE.

It is a good setup, with diverted PV Low Pressure in far W. NW Atlantic and NE Canada NW off Greenland that does that, next few days effectively, and at same time one of those Low Pressure areas turn through the Central Arctic which at mid to late next week at that time also I see the Low Pressure North away from UK, and Norway to Denmark- by Wednesday to Friday a large Scandy Russia Arctic High builds and the Greenland High Pressure grows as well, sending that NW Atlantic Low Eastwards, on Friday Saturday!, while I note on the models... that on Wednesday to Saturday a major cold and snowy weather event takes place over UK and N. Europe Low Pressure two to three centres, follow the move SE then NE Northwards up the area to the E. of Europe from the South Europe and NW Europe as the systems move from UK to ESE, and allow that large Norway Scandinavian High push the Low Pressure to it's south and East then north, and on Thursday to Friday a major drop in temperature for all of N. Europe and the UK.

There is a lot of you on this discussion that when I start reading your posts - I tend to get the feeling of de ja vu, as you lots of you have shared a lot of interests with yourselves- But you should bear in mind- that Snow in Central London, is a good hope and if it did snow in my area and City Centre- I would be here to talk about it!.

But reading about your forecasts interpretation and me feeling my post has been shoved out to allow lots of you to comment on each other's ideas that- is not doing good for supporters in Central London.

Thursday and Friday 31st December 2009 and the 1st January 2010, is offering a major snow fall of 3 to 5 inches for London.

I think it should start on Wednesday night. But my other half thinks snowfall will begin I hope during Thursday afternoon or evening!.

Edited December 27, 2009 by yamkin

[yamkin]

MetO are forecasting snow on Thursday evening for London http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/london_forecast_weather.html

[snowbob]

MetO are forecasting snow on Thursday evening for London http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/london_forecast_weather.html

Sounds good mate loosing all hope after reading in the model out put.thought all we were gonna get down south was rain.

[yamkin]

Sounds good mate loosing all hope after reading in the model out put.thought all we were gonna get down south was rain.

The famous Will Hand is really ramping it up. I know his forecast is for the SW/Dartmoor area, but I believe the S/SE will get snow later in the week. Read his latest forecast and you will know what I mean http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

[snowbob]

The famous Will Hand is really ramping it up. I know his forecast is for the SW/Dartmoor area, but I believe the S/SE will get snow later in the week. Read his latest forecast and you will know what I mean :blush: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Cheers mate yeah see what you mean. Am liking that read let's hope it comes off

[yamkin]

Cheers mate yeah see what you mean. Am liking that read let's hope it comes off

By the looks of models, ECM, JMA, GEM, GME & UKMO, the much colder feed really looks like filtering over the UK. I expect GFS to follow suit very soon. Exciting times ahead

[Neilsouth]

I'm abit tired of hearing people going on about the biase in the south east , however us in the south east got barely a dusting in some areas... No excitement from me whatsoever in the models lately for us. I'd be getting excited living in west kent though

Edited December 27, 2009 by neilsouth

[kold weather]

Watch the long term though, I'm very confident of another attack from the SW at some point and I suspect the broad evolution will have us in a SE airflow, probably a cold one as surface temps drop rapidly in Europe...this time was never going to faovur the SE because we lost the cold pool a few days ago...

Either way in any attack in that set-up we are set for decent falls, either from a potent easterly if it slides too far south, or a fullblown frontal system from the south...with proper cold air embedded...I reckon the set-up on Wednesday is a taster of what will happen several times again in early-mid Jan on a bigger scale.

[shotski]

By the looks of models, ECM, JMA, GEM, GME & UKMO, the much colder feed really looks like filtering over the UK. I expect GFS to follow suit very soon. Exciting times ahead

I agree with this, Its now looking like a major snow event is on the cards for many of us from tuesday onwards. All the models apart from

the GFS bring some very cold air over the UK for a long period, this could be a very memorable event if you like snow and cold.

A winter to remember me tink !!!!!!

[john mac]

Yamkin, i think it will be snowing in london by tuesday if the ECM veryifies