East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 18

[Derp Patrol]

If the GFS came off, we will probably see rain in most of the SE

However the ECM is brilliant and most of us would probably get snow

One way or another within the next week I think all of us are in for a big dump of snow

[kold weather]

I'm starting to think flooding is going to be a very real concern just on the southern side of the boudary for snow, where heavy rain looks like lasting a fair time. At that moment I'd guess that runs very close to the M4 region running eastwards, so London and Essex could well see some of the heaviest rain...of course if it all gets further shifted south then East Anglia comes into play for snowfall.

[smith25]

I'm starting to think flooding is going to be a very real concern just on the southern side of the boudary for snow, where heavy rain looks like lasting a fair time. At that moment I'd guess that runs very close to the M4 region running eastwards, so London and Essex could well see some of the heaviest rain...of course if it all gets further shifted south then East Anglia comes into play for snowfall.

Which set of charts are you going by?. Would the latest ECM charts bring snow for Essex and london?.

[Tom D]

It was rather nice seeing the sky as it was today - grey and white clouds with the sun shining through them, a temperature of 5c and a cool wind.

I'm a fan of the snow and cold but it had become rather annoying slipping on pavements and having to wrap up so warmly for over a week. A nice average spell with some proper windy, wet weather then some more snow would be nice.

[kold weather]

North Essex would have a shot at snow if the ECM came off, but further south then that, eg London and where I am, I'd imagine even with the better ECM we'd still be looking mainly at rain...though we'd have a better shot at it turning to snow if the ECM is right, where as the GFS is obviously far worse for us down here.

[yamkin]

Yamkin, i think it will be snowing in london by tuesday if the ECM veryifies :lol:

I'm looking at Late Wednesday into Thursday for the SE to get snow. Even better if we get snow from Tuesday!

[runboy]

North Essex would have a shot at snow if the ECM came off, but further south then that, eg London and where I am, I'd imagine even with the better ECM we'd still be looking mainly at rain...though we'd have a better shot at it turning to snow if the ECM is right, where as the GFS is obviously far worse for us down here.

Just been reading the model threads.....not looking that fab for snow in North/North East Norfolk is it? I mean for snow over the next week or so.

[k66yla]

It looks like everyone North of London is going to get even more snow tonight. Not so much for us in the south mainly rain.

[MAF]

Latest view from the Met O

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Rain and snow over central and southern parts will continue Wednesday before edging southwards and turning more generally to snow during Thursday, with perhaps further snow in the southeast Friday.

Updated: 0313 on Mon 28 Dec 2009

Edited December 28, 2009 by MAF

[Tom D]

I don't think I've ever seen such confusion at such short term - the low pressure is already showing up on UK radar yet the models are still confused as to how far north it will get.

I'm not expecting snow here, it's just not going to be cold enough and the uppers are far too high so it has to be rain... and lots of it too!

I also can't believe the GFS is so far out with just 24hrs to go!

Nonetheless, it's -3.0c here this morning, a hard frost on the ground.

[bluearmy]

tommy, i think there is every chance of a period of snow tomorrow am before the warmer air advects northwest. then its a case of waiting for the whole lot to come back se. how far the warmer air gets and how long before it comes back is the question. looks like much of wed could be a window of dry.

[Charltonkerry]

Ladies & Gentlemen, I don't know if anyone can help me, but we have a family holiday planned we are travelling from various parts of Kent a week today (Monday January 4th)to Centre Parcs at Elveden Forest for 5 days. Is it to early yet to tell if a trip like this will be problimatical with the expected weather, am concerned as the forecast of an easterly setting in could mean much snow or icy roads. Any thoughts to what weather to expect would be appriciated.

[MAF]

Kerry, i think it is too early to forecast the 4th Jan (IMO) reading the model threads gives a big hint that there is confusion in the next few days, hence a week away is currently a massive leap relative speaking. i think you may need to keep an eye on a daily basis as little changes in position of lows, temps and wind may make a big difference to us in the South

[Charltonkerry]

Funny enough MAF I was just going to delete my post for the exact reasons you state, perhaps i should have delayed my post until Sarturday / Sunday, just a Grandad worrying to much about the younger generation who are not use to the potential of this situation. Thanks for your reply.

[clark3r]

Latest view from the Met O

this is what i read from latest metoffice forecast

<h2 style="border: medium none ;" class="ghead470 jqCorner">Weather forecast: London & South East England</h2>

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cloudy cold and windy with rain on Wednesday and Thursday perhaps some wet snow especially to the north of London. Becoming brighter on Friday with a few wintry showers.

Updated: 0311 on Mon 28 Dec 2009

[charlton north-downs]

Funny enough MAF I was just going to delete my post for the exact reasons you state, perhaps i should have delayed my post until Sarturday / Sunday, just a Grandad worrying to much about the younger generation who are not use to the potential of this situation. Thanks for your reply.

Hi Charlton Kerry -Have a great holiday -Sympathise with you about worrying-My son has started a new job and twice he has been unable to get to work because Westerham Hill has been closed due to ice and snow and accidents. Its a catch 22 situation I love snow but worry about the disruption it causes

Come on you Reds-Promotion a must this season

Tomorrow night I think rain will turn to snow over high ground on the Downs as the front moves further North then snow in North London up to the Midlands .Snow for the South on Thursday as the front backtracks with colder air. . This weather does remind me of the Eighties when there were so many marginal snow events along with real snow events.

[MAF]

this is what i read from latest metoffice forecast

<h2 style="border: medium none ;" class="ghead470 jqCorner">Weather forecast: London & South East England</h2>

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cloudy cold and windy with rain on Wednesday and Thursday perhaps some wet snow especially to the north of London. Becoming brighter on Friday with a few wintry showers.

Updated: 0311 on Mon 28 Dec 2009

the difference is because what i posted was Updated: 0313 on Mon 28 Dec 2009 on the UK outlook rather than the SE outlook page

[bluespider]

Ladies & Gentlemen, I don't know if anyone can help me, but we have a family holiday planned we are travelling from various parts of Kent a week today (Monday January 4th)to Centre Parcs at Elveden Forest for 5 days. Is it to early yet to tell if a trip like this will be problimatical with the expected weather, am concerned as the forecast of an easterly setting in could mean much snow or icy roads. Any thoughts to what weather to expect would be appriciated.

Hi Kerry, small world as my family and I are going to Elveden next Monday for 7 days! When we went in Feb early this year we had snow and it is magical at Centre Parcs ;-). Fingers crossed for it to be at least cold, swimming in the outdoor heated pool is fab when cold, you can only see steam.

Have fun!!!

[Charltonkerry]

Hi Charlton Kerry -Have a great holiday -Sympathise with you about worrying-My son has started a new job and twice he has been unable to get to work because Westerham Hill has been closed due to ice and snow and accidents. Its a catch 22 situation I love snow but worry about the disruption it causes

Come on you Reds-Promotion a must this season

Tomorrow night I think rain will turn to snow over high ground on the Downs as the front moves further North then snow in North London up to the Midlands .Snow for the South on Thursday as the front backtracks with colder air. . This weather does remind me of the Eighties when there were so many marginal snow events along with real snow events.

Be a bit more optomistic about promotion if we win today, assuming we can put out a team and keep at least 10 players on the pitch, missed the boxing day game so cant comment on it but amazing that with 9 men and losing 2-1 we still managed a draw, few tired legs today.

Bluespider, must admit never been to Centre Parcs, everybody say how good it is, I am hoping for snowfall once we reach there as after Xmas period will have a few scores to settle with the family and a snowball fight should sort them out nicely, 10 off us are going ranging from 21/2 to nearly 60 should be fun, hope you enjoy your visit.

[Ben_Cambs]

Im forecasted heavy snow tomorrow. I think places North of London and the M4 corridor could see snow. South of that, rain only im afraid

[Snow Obsession]

MetO have updated warnings for tomorrow and Wednesday to include Bucks, Milton Keynes and Oxfordshire

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

[k66yla]

Met Office have updated there warnings now.

Buckinghamshire

Milton Keynes

Oxfordshire

Outbreaks of rain spreading slowly northwards will turn to sleet and snow. Accumulations of 5-10cm are possible in places accompanied by strengthening easterly winds giving drifting locally. There remains uncertainty over the areas at risk which will be kept under review.

Issued at: 1111 Mon 28 Dec

[yamkin]

The following is by Ian Fergusson from the South West post area. Check out the bottom part of Ian's blog.........

Afternoon folks.

Well, an interesting morning and doubtless tomorrow (and Wed, and Thurs) will prove equally challenging. There's a lot at stake, forecasting wise, because for some areas - some - this next bout of wintry weather could prove highly newsworthy as well as downright dangerous / disruptive.

You've doubtless seen how this morning, after further consultation through the PWS, the UKMO issued an early warning for severe (snowy) weather, applying, at present, to parts of Wales and adjoining English counties. A broader swathe of advisories (and note, these a different to warnings in the strict sense) apply to other areas - including the westcountry - albeit for differing but well-reasoned potential consequences.

Since I started work at 0355 today, I've seen and been briefed on two separate NAE runs, alongside some detailed high-res prognoses for rainfall / snowfall totals. An earlier snapshot of such UKMO Chief Forecaster briefing output is viewable on my blog today (http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson) for those interested - it offers a flavour of how we tweak our TV and local radio forecasts to cater for the sort of sub-regional outcome expected in the next 48hrs.

Here's the latest thinking, in summary:

RAINFALL - some heavy and in itself likely to be disruptive for some areas - is the core story for most of the westcountry overnight and into tomorrow. Localised flooding quite possible for some. The very tight WBFL gradient developing overnight on the northern flank of PPN will mean an equally tight areal discrimination from transition of rain to snow, with the WBFL typically around 200-400m but as you might expect, this will be readily dropping in heavier PPN to offer a wintry flavour. Equally, into tomorrow the surface temp variance will be extremely marked; e.g., Plymouth and much of Cornwall positively basking (despite the inclement skies and wind!) at >10C whilst up in the likes of Bristol and Glos, ambient will be closer to 3C. Either way, a drab and pretty ghastly day wherever you happen to venture.

The prospect of anything other than rain for all of lowland SW Peninsula and lowland Somerset / Dorset / Wilts is effectively tiny. High-res modelling gives around a 30% risk of snow further north over high ground of Somerset (Mendips Plateau) and upland mid-Wilts, but this risk is elastic and low confidence.

SNOWFALL - the only (westcountry) area with fairly high confidence for possibly quite potent snowfall developing tomorrow is Gloucestershire. We've been at pains to signal this on TV and in much more detail in forecasts today on BBC Glos. Specifically, the Forest of Dean looks like an area where the situation could quickly deteriorate during tomorrow (as you might have guessed, with it nestled alongside the area of most concern delineated on the UKMO Warning page). Cotswolds also look likely to take a wallop, and we've equally been at pains to warn residents there how smaller roads could become impassable and remain so for quite a time.

Snow risk elsewhere - e.g., Bristol, Bath, B&NES, S Glos - remains every bit as marginal as before (see yesterday's forum posts) but clearly, the UKMO has to play the pragmatic card and retain the existing advisories, now extended into other districts, e.g., of Wilts. Effectively, for these regions we'll be forced into a nowcast / short-range forecast and warning scenario through tomorrow, given the low confidence bounds that separate mere 'snow' from snow befitting an actual warning, versus mere advisory. Trust me, it's not plucked out of thin air - these upgrades only happen after detailed analysis and debate via PWS expertise. ]

For our (BBC) part, we've elected (rightly, I think most would agree) to highlight the snow potential for these marginal arreas rather than downplay it, because history amply demonstrates to us how the backlash of forecasting rain but not correctly forecasting disruptive snow is massive and potentially deadly; conversely, forecasting rain that never becomes promised snow largely bothers / upsets schoolkids, skiers and varied snow aficianados, but is otherwise speedily forgotten (and often a major relief for travellers).

SNOWFALL TOTALS: This might shock some other forums here (Midlands / Wales), but our new NAE run is eager to talk-up some 50cm of snow by the end of Wednesday for parts of central/SE upland Wales (and that's even without the drifting, which will be a major factor everywhere). Our best estimate for neighbouring areas such as Forest of Dean could total 20-30cm (same caveat re drifting) and more widely >10cm. Whatever the end result, a recipe for some very, very nasty conditions and some areas such as the Brecon Beacons, parts of Herefordshire etc., will be wholly impassable.

REST OF THE WEEK: Sees the frontal zone effectively stall over the same areas into Wednesday and then sink southwards and yield a more expansive area of (perhaps disruptive) snow across much of southern England, perhaps ultimately all the way down to the south coast. Some of our modelling of the New Year's Eve events are deeply troubling, with a risk of severe weather (blizzards) into southern-central / SE England and London, which would clearly have major ramifications at a time when many people are either travelling or otherwise planning New Year's Eve events, etc. But that's miles away and obviously confidence is low.

If time allows, I will post on updates from the next NAE run.

Best

Ian

[MAF]

a good forecast from Mr Ferguson, and well worth reading. alas the last line just about sums it up for us in London and SE area

But that's miles away and obviously confidence is low.

[yamkin]

a good forecast from Mr Ferguson, and well worth reading. alas the last line just about sums it up for us in London and SE area

That is just a safe guard statement to b honest. I anticipate the ppn will make it's way S/SE on Thurs/Fri where there will be snow.