Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 8

[LomondSnowstorm]

Met Office have removed the advisory here for heavy snow tomorrow night - which means it'll probably snow tomorrow night !!! To be fair, they did predict last night's snowfall (rain for some), though most places that got hit by snow had over 10cm of fresh snow overnight.

I attempted to waid in on the model discussion thread - let's see if it gets removed!

LS

[Guest]

A polar low..

Stranger things have happened. I'm not even going to go there with any thoughts on Polar Lows though, will be keeping them to myself this year Although Thursday and Friday seem to be ticking the odd box or two

[Hairy Celt]

Aha! I spy with my beady eye... the next lot from the north, midnight express from spitzbergen tomorrow. I have my ticket.

although as usual here dew point will be the decider

Edited December 27, 2009 by Hairy Celt

[Mondy]

Happy to report the slight thaw of today has halted and temps are now tumbling below freezing. Have retained pretty much all snow here at Tundra Stirlingshire. The roads are diabolical too.

Look at that front coming in from the west - has our name all over it

http://www.sat24.com/

Edited December 27, 2009 by Mondy

[Guest]

Met Office have removed the advisory here for heavy snow tomorrow night - which means it'll probably snow tomorrow night !!! To be fair, they did predict last night's snowfall (rain for some), though most places that got hit by snow had over 10cm of fresh snow overnight.

I attempted to waid in on the model discussion thread - let's see if it gets removed!

LS

Talking about the model thread, have you looked at the 12z GFS??? Do we order our generators now?? 2 weeks' supplies of food?? I can't quite believe what I am seeing. Am I looking at it right??

[Snowplough33]

I know its a long long way off.........but hands up if the 3rd easterly blast about 10 days from now is your favourite to look at !!!!!

Edited December 27, 2009 by Snowplough33

[snow1975]

Met Office have removed the advisory here for heavy snow tomorrow night - which means it'll probably snow tomorrow night !!! To be fair, they did predict last night's snowfall (rain for some), though most places that got hit by snow had over 10cm of fresh snow overnight.

I attempted to waid in on the model discussion thread - let's see if it gets removed!

LS

[/ quote]You were jammy last night. I hear you got 4 inches. I got 1.5cm, most of it fell as sleet here. Total depth at 0900hr, 8.5cm. Max temp today, 2.1C, so not much of a thaw.

Edited December 27, 2009 by snow1975

[Mondy]

Talking about the model thread, have you looked at the 12z GFS??? Do we order our generators now?? 2 weeks' supplies of food?? I can't quite believe what I am seeing. Am I looking at it right??

I try avoid there and looking at models, but what's it showing?

Ps, I have a spare gene in the hut

Edited December 27, 2009 by Mondy

[Sunny Leith]

Dominant mode is from east to west from Tuesday onwards. Looking at least cold and potentially very cold. Ye olde traditional east-coast/central/central belt corridor attack from the east. Not counting any chickens but looks potentially great.

Edit: best thing to do is to go and look, you know you want to

I try avoid there and looking at models, but what's it showing?

Edited December 27, 2009 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

You were jammy last night. I hear you 4 inches. I got 1.5cm, most of it fell as sleet here.

Very jammy, just that bit of shelter from the lomond hills did the trick - Strathmiglo got about 6 inches, with Perth reporting nearly a foot! I doubt anything much will come of tomorrow evening for southern and eastern areas, with the flow being very slack, so the band fails to make it over the northwest highlands. Tuesday evening into Wednesday is still one to watch, with snow for eastern areas in pretty much all of the scenarios put forward by the models - the difference really for here is whether we're getting a spell with uppers around -10 and with some frequent, moderate showers penetrating quite far inland, or do we want slightly marginal -5 uppers ( still -7 - -8 in the north) with potentially incredible snowfall on Tuesday night. I expect a combination of the two, with precipitation getting quite far north, but with most of the snowfall in eastern areas from convection showers and uppers around -6 - -7 for most.

[Mondy]

Dominant mode is from east to west from Tuesday onwards. Looking at least cold and potentially very cold. Ye olde traditional east-coast/central/central belt corridor attack from the east. Not counting any chickens but looks potentially great.

Edit: best thing to do is to go and look, you know you want to

Just had a sneaky look! Not for mild rampers!

[Guest]

I try avoid there and looking at models, but what's it showing?

A limp breeze from the east with the chance of snizzle No, seriously, how much snow do you think there will be in Scotland with an easterly breeze of 20mph+ coming off the North Sea and 850s of -8C on Weds/Thurs??? The whole run is a beauty, 2 weeks of winter. Although it has been binned by some in the model thread as it doesn't show snow for them due to technical difficulties. I do feel sorry for them though.

Mind where you step as there seem to be toys scattered all over the place too, I have no idea where they came from.

[Hairy Celt]

Talking about the model thread, have you looked at the 12z GFS??? Do we order our generators now?? 2 weeks' supplies of food?? I can't quite believe what I am seeing. Am I looking at it right??

we'll be huddled over the stick fires if that happened. someone maybe should have told gfs that this is scotland, not sweden. mind, sweden's ok, see they have lovely ladies there (oops, wrong forum :blush: )

hmmm... it gives a -14C for here next weekend, after a week of persistent snow showers. Dream on.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Hairy Celt

[Mondy]

A limp breeze from the east with the chance of snizzle :lol: No, seriously, how much snow do you think there will be in Scotland with an easterly breeze of 20mph+ coming off the North Sea and 850s of -8C on Weds/Thurs??? The whole run is a beauty, 2 weeks of winter. Although it has been binned by some in the model thread as it doesn't show snow for them due to technical difficulties. I do feel sorry for them though.

Mind where you step as there seem to be toys scattered all over the place too, I have no idea where they came from.

EEEk! Better get petrol for the genes. :blush:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Dominant mode is from east to west from Tuesday onwards. Looking at least cold and potentially very cold. Ye olde traditional east-coast/central/central belt corridor attack from the east. Not counting any chickens but looks potentially great.

Edit: best thing to do is to go and look, you know you want to

You really do have to see it to believe it, another classic run really. Southerners continue to complain on the model output discussion (or southeast whingers thread as it should be called) but whichever outlook we're looking at, it does look very good here for a convective snow event. All the signs are there: easterly winds, cold uppers and the lack of a met office warning! Hopefully with a faster flow and colder uppers there'll be less modification from the north sea to spoil the fun. Looking forward to it.

LS

[snow1975]

Very jammy, just that bit of shelter from the lomond hills did the trick - Strathmiglo got about 6 inches, with Perth reporting nearly a foot! I doubt anything much will come of tomorrow evening for southern and eastern areas, with the flow being very slack, so the band fails to make it over the northwest highlands. Tuesday evening into Wednesday is still one to watch, with snow for eastern areas in pretty much all of the scenarios put forward by the models - the difference really for here is whether we're getting a spell with uppers around -10 and with some frequent, moderate showers penetrating quite far inland, or do we want slightly marginal -5 uppers ( still -7 - -8 in the north) with potentially incredible snowfall on Tuesday night. I expect a combination of the two, with precipitation getting quite far north, but with most of the snowfall in eastern areas from convection showers and uppers around -6 - -7 for most.

I can't wait. It's amazing the amount of snow that fell inland last night.

[Snowplough33]

Very jammy, just that bit of shelter from the lomond hills did the trick - Strathmiglo got about 6 inches, with Perth reporting nearly a foot! I doubt anything much will come of tomorrow evening for southern and eastern areas, with the flow being very slack, so the band fails to make it over the northwest highlands. Tuesday evening into Wednesday is still one to watch, with snow for eastern areas in pretty much all of the scenarios put forward by the models - the difference really for here is whether we're getting a spell with uppers around -10 and with some frequent, moderate showers penetrating quite far inland, or do we want slightly marginal -5 uppers ( still -7 - -8 in the north) with potentially incredible snowfall on Tuesday night. I expect a combination of the two, with precipitation getting quite far north, but with most of the snowfall in eastern areas from convection showers and uppers around -6 - -7 for most.

Would such uppers (-6 - -7)ensure snow to all levels even with the wind off the North Sea do you think?

Do you have any idea if there has ever been a snow event from the east with uppers below -10?

[Sunny Leith]

Looking good init CMD ? I'm going to have to take a break from this for a few hours and temporarily get a life ! Like you, I think my wife is now convinced that all this time in the box-room hunched over the keyboard, is really just a sneaky cover for viewing Danish porn sites 24x7 :blush:

:lol:

A limp breeze from the east with the chance of snizzle :lol: No, seriously, how much snow do you think there will be in Scotland with an easterly breeze of 20mph+ coming off the North Sea and 850s of -8C on Weds/Thurs??? The whole run is a beauty, 2 weeks of winter. Although it has been binned by some in the model thread as it doesn't show snow for them due to technical difficulties. I do feel sorry for them though.

Mind where you step as there seem to be toys scattered all over the place too, I have no idea where they came from.

[snow1975]

Would such uppers (-6 - -7)ensure snow to all levels even with the wind off the North Sea do you think?

Do you have any idea if there has ever been a snow event from the east with uppers below -10?

Jan 1987 must have been sub -10C. Probably Feb/Mar 1947 too.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Would such uppers (-6 - -7)ensure snow to all levels even with the wind off the North Sea do you think?

Do you have any idea if there has ever been a snow event from the east with uppers below -10?

Firstly, I believe they would - most of the snow that fell last week was at uppers above -5, and with a particularly cold continent I think snow would fall in most areas. I suppose one of the most famous examples is late December 1978, when uppers were similar with a similarly fast easterly flow, and (allegedly) that was quite a brilliant snow event for most of Scotland.

The coldest easterly flow in the last 50 years was 1987, when sub -15 uppers engulfed the entire country -

[Cheggers]

Just reading earlier posts and the models thread, and thought I would start my winter shelter now!!

Who needs Ray Mears, or an Eskimo

Edited December 27, 2009 by Cheggers

[Highland Snow]

That's "Cool" Cheggers.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just reading earlier posts and the models thread, and thought I would start my winter shelter now!!

Who needs Ray Mears, or an Eskimo

Very good!! You'll need it by Wednesday! I feel this thread has become out of touch with the other threads, willing the low to stick a bit further north, wrecking the snow chances of Wales and the Midlands for our own sake! I attempted to read the model discussion thread, but by the end of it I was, if anything, less informed about the model output than I was before I read the thread! It's as if we're a different world!

LS

[Highland Snow]

Huntingtowerfield Perth after 9 inches of snow overnight. Not recording any Precipitation in the Weather Station!

More Perth pictures courtesy of Mrs Highland Snow.

[Mondy]

Cool pix!

Just wait til the next batch falls on that!