Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 8

[Guest]

It's as if we're a different world!

LS

I think we are in a different world. I popped out to the shops at 6pm and it is just a crunchy winter wonderland out there. Nice to see the Scottish Beeb weather forecast and the sign off was "Definitely staying cold" with a smile from the lovely lady :rofl:

Edit: Nice pics HS! :) Mrs Catch will be jealous that you have 9 inches and I've only got 3.

Edited December 27, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[snowy owl]

Ok so having braved the output discussion thread, this upcoming low seems to have mega potential - what are peoples thoughts on the possibilities?

[Mondy]

I was a bad boy and paid a visit to the model thread. I was that naughty, I left a comment.

Can someone point me to the naughty stairs, please

[Highland Snow]

Nice pics HS! :) Mrs Catch will be jealous that you have 9 inches and I've only got 3.

[Guest]

Ok so having braved the output discussion thread, this upcoming low seems to have mega potential - what are peoples thoughts on the possibilities?

I think the possibilities are endless, including the outside chance of a polar low forming off Norway during the week. Conditions are ripe, but of course this is based on my own limited knowledge, and after last year's debacle I should really have learnt better and should now be shutting up

The easy part of forecasting potential for next week is to say that the strong winds coming into the east of Scotland will bring a lot of sleet/snow showers. These showers will penetrate far inland, indeed, even here on the west of Scotland I expect snow from this set-up.

[Mondy]

LOL. Much wetting of knickers occuring on model thread.

Anyone else thinks it would be comical if the Atlantic came roaring back to life and scuppered things?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Very good!! You'll need it by Wednesday! I feel this thread has become out of touch with the other threads, willing the low to stick a bit further north, wrecking the snow chances of Wales and the Midlands for our own sake! I attempted to read the model discussion thread, but by the end of it I was, if anything, less informed about the model output than I was before I read the thread! It's as if we're a different world!

LS

Now, now don't you think you've had enough snow up in Scotland lol.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok so having braved the output discussion thread, this upcoming low seems to have mega potential - what are peoples thoughts on the possibilities?

To be honest, the frontal precipitation may not get this far north, but on the bright side, the potential from the easterly flow is huge, with less marginality around it than the frontal precipitation (warm sectors and shortwaves etc). Typical east central snow streamer, with showers merging from about 10 miles north of the Tay to a few miles south of the Forth, pushing inland and giving large accumulations. I feel the Met Office and the models too miss this kind of setup in their forecasts, showing light precipitation when the reality turns out to be much snowier. Both our locations have to be favoured, especially if the wind is an ENE, as this gives a nice little tilt in the flow to avoid the showers sticking purely to the estuaries. So far in the spell, 2 falls of over 4 inches have hit here and Kinross-shire. Hopefully, a third will be added to that tally, though with the Lothians, Stirlingshire, Angus, the eastern Borders and North Lanarkshire (?) included in that quota as well.

LS

[Guest]

I was a bad boy and paid a visit to the model thread. I was that naughty, I left a comment.

Can someone point me to the naughty stairs, please

I liked the last line of your post in the model thread

Some serious cold weather being forecast by the models now for Scotland, although I'm not sure t+1hr is really a reliable time frame......

Even if it turned mild tomorrow and stayed mild for the rest of winter we would all still talk about this cold spell in 20 years time.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thought I'd add the thoughts of 'Alza' from Tyneside into the mix: 'Convective snow across NE England / E Scotland Tues, Wed, Thurs, Fri - 10-50cm by the end depending on where the heaviest showers end up'

[Highland Snow]

Could we name our next Thread "Apocalypse Now"?

[Guest]

Could we name our next Thread "Apocalypse Now"?

Or the week after tomorrow.

[Snowplough33]

Or the week after tomorrow.

And if we are really good, "the two weeks after tomorrow"

[snowy owl]

To be honest, the frontal precipitation may not get this far north, but on the bright side, the potential from the easterly flow is huge, with less marginality around it than the frontal precipitation (warm sectors and shortwaves etc). Typical east central snow streamer, with showers merging from about 10 miles north of the Tay to a few miles south of the Forth, pushing inland and giving large accumulations. I feel the Met Office and the models too miss this kind of setup in their forecasts, showing light precipitation when the reality turns out to be much snowier. Both our locations have to be favoured, especially if the wind is an ENE, as this gives a nice little tilt in the flow to avoid the showers sticking purely to the estuaries. So far in the spell, 2 falls of over 4 inches have hit here and Kinross-shire. Hopefully, a third will be added to that tally, though with the Lothians, Stirlingshire, Angus, the eastern Borders and North Lanarkshire (?) included in that quota as well.

LS

I remember previous easterly flows bringing blizzard conditions here and some serious snow potential!! - used to shut our roads here regularly especially with the ENE wind direction!!

I still can't quite comprehend the charts we're seeing just now, its quite unbelievable.

[Hiya]

Wednesday is looking very good. I was impressed with my first east coast easterly, so I hope this one is more of the same.

There is a bioluminescent squid on the loose near Dunblane.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I remember previous easterly flows bringing blizzard conditions here and some serious snow potential!! - used to shut our roads here regularly especially with the ENE wind direction!!

I still can't quite comprehend the charts we're seeing just now, its quite unbelievable.

I should be punished, I too posted on the model output discussion!! Just a vague attempt to move away from IMBY posting dominating what should be an interesting thread.

Anyway, the UKMO are still not calling snow for eastern Scotland Tuesday evening onwards, at least not in a big way. I think that the met risk looking very stupid again by the lack of a warning for eastern Scotland and Northeast England - time and time again, they just miss this setup. Perhaps with a Scottish Met Office, easterly convective events, which are notoriously underestimated by forecast models, would be picked up on more effectively, and not just have a forecast which seems to be automatically generated.

This winter, I think, will be remembered for a long time as a turning point, not just as a return to a spell of colder winters after a spell of milder ones, but as the winter that people, not just in Scotland, became disillusioned with the current Met Office and, just maybe, AGW. Joe B has actually had a great winter so far, predicting the cold entrenched in the continent spreading southwest towards the UK.

The winter of 2009/10 is shaping up to be a classic, one that will be remembered for a very long time

LS

Edited December 27, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Highland Snow]

Strange phenomena on that Dunblane TrafficCam tonight. Was showing the youngest what appeared to be a "ghost car" (transparent) earlier about 7pm.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Highland Snow

[Guest]

Wednesday is looking very good. I was impressed with my first east coast easterly, so I hope this one is more of the same.

There is a bioluminescent squid on the loose near Dunblane.

Someone ran over Casper. Splat.

I think this easterly could be much better than the last one. Cold air already established over the mainland and surely much stronger winds at certain points. Also remember that many of the snow events in Scotland over the past while have popped out of thin air at short notice. Seriously, how many angles have we had snow from recently? How many times can you (or anyone else) say hand on heart that you have witnessed this type of cold spell in the internet era?? I certainly have not.

Totally off tangent, but did anyone realise that Scotland is simply an anagram of Coldstan?? I am delirious with the cold.

[Sunny Leith]

Thats what I failed to understand LS, when all this began 11 days ago. "Heather the weather" called it wrong the night before, despite the synoptics absolutely screaming the classic east-coast/central belt scenario ... which of course subsequently took place and kicked off the current cold spell. It was a poor piece of forecasting for that setup and the met-office seem keen to repeat it.

Now of course its not inevitable ... but on the balance of probabilities - and from experience - its likely that we'll be delivered something similar this week. Go figure why they can't or won't call it ! Maybe if they spent more time and money on weather forecasting the here and now ... rather than forecasting the climate in 50 years time ... they might do a better job

I should be punished, I too posted on the model output discussion!! Just a vague attempt to move away from IMBY posting dominating what should be an interesting thread.

Anyway, the UKMO are still not calling snow for eastern Scotland Tuesday evening onwards, at least not in a big way. I think that the met risk looking very stupid again by the lack of a warning for eastern Scotland and Northeast England - time and time again, they just miss this setup. Perhaps with a Scottish Met Office, easterly convective events, which are notoriously underestimated by forecast models, would be picked up on more effectively, and not just have a forecast which seems to be automatically generated.

This winter, I think, will be remembered for a long time as a turning point, not just as a return to a spell of colder winters after a spell of milder ones, but as the winter that people, not just in Scotland, became disillusioned with the current Met Office and, just maybe, AGW. Joe B has actually had a great winter so far, predicting the cold entrenched in the continent spreading southwest towards the UK.

The winter of 2009/10 is shaping up to be a classic, one that will be remembered for a very long time

LS

Edited December 27, 2009 by by-tor

[Guest]

Now of course its not inevitable ... but on the balance of probabilities - and from experience - its likely that we'll be delivered something similar this week. Go figure why they can't or won't call it ! :lol: Maybe if they spent more time and money on weather forecasting the here and now ... rather than forecasting the climate in 50 years time ... they might do a better job :lol:

It is just as well we have NW and each other then. Beeb and Met-O have been very patchy with their forecasts, which is quite unlike them if we are fair.

The real problem is that we're just a small sub-section of the UK, they have to concentrate on the main population regions. A less centralised semi-professional set-up would work really well in Scotland, a cross between NW and the Met-O.

As for "Heather the Weather", she has hardly given herself the best of sign-offs. Some really poor forecasting recently.

Edited December 27, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[Highland Snow]

It is just as well we have NW and each other then. Beeb and Met-O have been very patchy with their forecasts, which is quite unlike them if we are fair.

The real problem is that we're just a small sub-section of the UK, they have to concentrate on the main population regions. A less centralised semi-professional set-up would work really well in Scotland, a cross between NW and the Met-O.

As for "Heather the Weather", she has hardly given herself the best of sign-offs. Some really poor forecasting recently, especially the Xmas Eve (?) for Boxing Day forecast of 4C and rain when some people suggested on here that would not happen.

The Members of this thread have done a fantastic job this week. I just don't watch the TV Forecasts anymore.:lol:

[Guest]

The Members of this thread have done a fantastic job this week. I just don't watch the TV Forecasts anymore.:lol:

I tend to take them with the only pinch of salt left in every gritting depot in Scotland.

[Snowplough33]

The Members of this thread have done a fantastic job this week. I just don't watch the TV Forecasts anymore.

And this is much more fun, as we talk about snow and its forecasting morning, noon, and night

Well I am off for early night as no radar watching to be done tonight thankfully. Need to recharge the batteries ahead of phase 2 and then may not be lucky enough to have a break before the "possible" 3rd phase.

[bingobob777]

The one decent spell of snow we had in Glasgow was last Tuesday, it's now nearly gone, all we have left is dirty slush. We need more or a melt quick

[Guest]

The one decent spell of snow we had in Glasgow was last Tuesday, it's now nearly gone, all we have left is dirty slush. We need more or a melt quick

It's going to freeze up overnight and stay cold again, don't panic BB.