Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 8

[Snowplough33]

We had a 'warm' spell yesterday evening; temp shot up to -1C and condensation formed on the outside of the windows. Now, I have ice-ferns on the outside of the windows. Unusual?

Now -7C at the airport!

I see you are part of the "moderating team" on here. Excuse my ignorance but are you part of NW?? Perhaps a ranked officer patrolling this thread??

Glad all is still cold in your area to and here is to lots more smow!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

-6.4C here, which oddly appears to be one of the mildest temperatures of any location on this forum! Anyway, for once it looks as though the GFS alone has outpredicted the Euro models, which means the low will probably be further north. This means far more precipitation around but east coast temperatures will be pretty marginal. My gut feeling though is that with such heavy precipitation, all of it will fall as snow, though a few unlucky places right on the coast may have sleet for a time. Things look less marginal after Tuesday night though, but it is on Tuesday night that the most potential for a seriously impressive snow event lies.

[Snowplough33]

-6.4C here, which oddly appears to be one of the mildest temperatures of any location on this forum! Anyway, for once it looks as though the GFS alone has outpredicted the Euro models, which means the low will probably be further north. This means far more precipitation around but east coast temperatures will be pretty marginal. My gut feeling though is that with such heavy precipitation, all of it will fall as snow, though a few unlucky places right on the coast may have sleet for a time. Things look less marginal after Tuesday night though, but it is on Tuesday night that the most potential for a seriously impressive snow event lies.

Expected wind direction???...........This can have quite a bearing on the main event aswell. East or ENE transits land here and I may just get away with it, but just to the south of east, its off the sea......could miss out.

However the rest of the run looks so good, we will all have snow later I am sure.

[Guest]

-6.4C here, which oddly appears to be one of the mildest temperatures of any location on this forum! Anyway, for once it looks as though the GFS alone has outpredicted the Euro models, which means the low will probably be further north. This means far more precipitation around but east coast temperatures will be pretty marginal. My gut feeling though is that with such heavy precipitation, all of it will fall as snow, though a few unlucky places right on the coast may have sleet for a time. Things look less marginal after Tuesday night though, but it is on Tuesday night that the most potential for a seriously impressive snow event lies.

No, it's sweltering here at -5.7C Thick fog around, but pale blue sky above. Rime on every surface so it just looks white outside, as if it didn't before.

[Snooz]

Morning All, charts look amazing

-3.6C here and still falling from a high of -0.1 @1am

What will today bring then?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Expected wind direction???...........This can have quite a bearing on the main event aswell. East or ENE transits land here and I may just get away with it, but just to the south of east, its off the sea......could miss out.

However the rest of the run looks so good, we will all have snow later I am sure.

Sadly it's ESE, SP. I think you might just be far enough north to get away with it though - the problem is mainly in eastern and southern Fife, East Lothian and the Borders.

[Snowplough33]

Sadly it's ESE, SP. I think you might just be far enough north to get away with it though - the problem is mainly in eastern and southern Fife, East Lothian and the Borders.

One other question that puzzles me (being new here). Which of the runs is usually best? I guess that once within 20-24 hours the usually become similar, but looking out a few days who has the best track record?

[Mondy]

-9.8c now. Car doors won't open, which is why I'm back here waiting for the sun to shine

[Snowlover2]

and the fun begins, thats the first person of the day stuck outside my house, wheels just spinning and he is oing nowhere fast. Shall i get dh to help him? lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

One other question that puzzles me (being new here). Which of the runs is usually best? I guess that once within 20-24 hours the usually become similar, but looking out a few days who has the best track record?

Well the ECM model (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html) is usually regarded as the best for medium-long range forecasts, while the UKMO is probably the best for a short range http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html . In terms of the GFS output, the most accurate runs are usually the 00Z and the 6Z, with the 18Z GFS the least accurate run, though occasionally it picks up on a trend that others don't spot. The GFS has the most data freely available, hence why it is used more often, but it is not the most accurate usually.

Hope this$ helps

LS

[Methuselah]

Another cold morning, currently -6.8'C with us.

Just seent he BBC weather andthey mentioned another cold day for us, but had an early warning for Snow tomorrow down Souf.

Then had a look at www.raintoday.co.uk and seen that there is a fair substantial band of snow heading South just bumping into the North coast as I type.

No mention of that even on the Scottish Weather

It 'could' be showery stuff that'll fizzle over land??

[JRMcLeod]

It 'could' be showery stuff that'll fizzle over land??

Any idea how far south the band is going to travel? Pressumably there is even colder air in behind it?

[Methuselah]

I see you are part of the "moderating team" on here. Excuse my ignorance but are you part of NW?? Perhaps a ranked officer patrolling this thread??

Glad all is still cold in your area to and here is to lots more smow!!!

Just a humble moderator, mate. Not the SS or anything.

[Cheggers]

Morning all, -6 here so decided to stay in bed. Did take this nice picture of the Artic Tundra that is Central Scotland!!

[Methuselah]

Any idea how far south the band is going to travel? Pressumably there is even colder air in behind it?

I really wouldn't like to guess, mate. But, we'd better keep an eye on it?

[Mondy]

Not being picked up by ANY of the weather nuts on here, but there is a comma feature north of Scotland drifting down:

Will it Rain Today already shows snow falling with this feature:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

One to watch as we get bored of the shenanigans on the model thread

[Methuselah]

Expected wind direction???...........This can have quite a bearing on the main event aswell. East or ENE transits land here and I may just get away with it, but just to the south of east, its off the sea......could miss out.

However the rest of the run looks so good, we will all have snow later I am sure.

Looks like an initial ESE draw will gradually back NE as the LP pulls away into the Low Countries; (?) that could be when the main snow-risk transfers to the east and northeast...And, notice Mondy's comma cloud oop norf.

[Northernlights]

Down to -10c here this morning but bright sunshine now and -7c. No trains on the Aberdeen - Inverness line first thing this morning because of frozen points at Inverurie. Can see snow showers (Comma?) to the north across the Firth.

[Sunny Leith]

I never take the models as gospel truth at whatever range. But in so far as GFS is worth looking at for the immediate trend ... it looks like the 528 dam line and -5 850's would be sitting somewhere over Northern England/Southern Scotland over the next couple of days but gradually advancing southwards leaving us in increasingly colder air. We could be snowy in eastern/central areas to begin with ... or as LS says, perhaps more sleety on the immediate windward coasts . The North Sea does look to be generally at about 8c to the east of us and although Scandinavia is frigid ... Denmark, and north-western mainland Europe isn't currently - so no frigid fetch at the surface if the low-pressure is sourcing air from there.

Trend for cold and snow all looks good from midweek onwards - whether it kicks off snowy though I honestly dunno. "Inlandness" and height will probably help out right at the start, beyond that it looks good regardless of those factors.

Edited December 28, 2009 by by-tor

[Cookie]

heavy sleet shower here at the moment and winds quiet strong as well.

[Hairy Celt]

down to -3.1c at 9 this morning, now -2.0c and dp is still -4.0c. Lovely clear day so I shall be out with camera soon I think.

[Norrance]

It's a beautiful sunny winter's day here. Currently -6.3C.

Next door neighbours have just returned from Christmas away to find burst pipes in their attic. I think there may be a lot of that to come when this spell ends.

[Zerouali lives]

Looks like an inistial ESE draw will gradually back NE as the LP pulls away into the Low Countries; (?) that could be when the main snow-risk transfers to the east and northeast...And, notice Mondy's comma cloud oop norf. :lol:

That's what I was thinking / hoping for. It certainly only moving in an eastwards direction at the moment.

There's a good 2/3" worth in there too!

[Snooz]

Well somewhere should be cold and snowy during the next week or so, LOL! - looks like our wee corner might miss out again from both sides. With that central belt "corridor", looking favoured yet again, you lucky lot :lol:

That comma feature looks like it'll not travel too far south and seems to just skiffing the most N/NE'erly points before heading ESE

I could of course be completely wrong! forecasting is not my thing..

In reply to an earlier poster who said ".. surely Scotland has had enough snow by now.." NOT ALL areas of Scotland have had the same coverage, some only got the same as what you got in some regions further south of the border. Only difference is that the cold has kept whatever cover, generally intact for the most part the last 10+ days

PS: Take a look at some of the glorious pics on the more North/NorthEast Traffic Cams this morning, lots bathed in lovely orange sunshine showing the cover at it's loveliest

Edited December 28, 2009 by Snooz

[Guest]

It's a beautiful sunny winter's day here. Currently -6.3C.

Next door neighbours have just returned from Christmas away to find burst pipes in their attic. I think there may be a lot of that to come when this spell ends.

Just been talking to MrsCatch about her brother's family and they have frozen pipes/burst pipes. So I think we will hear more and more of this over the coming days. Reminds me of 95 when there were widespread problems with this happening.

Leave your heating on peeps. A few quid on the gas or electric now will save hundreds or thousands later.....

I am watching radar at the moment and there is a snow shower just about clearing Arran, heading straight for me. Surely not?? :lol: