Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 8

[bingobob777]

It's going to freeze up overnight and stay cold again, don't panic BB.

Frozen slush, great lol

All this talk of 12 inches of fresh snow is making me jealous.

[Highland Snow]

Thanks for another great day on here. Bank Holiday Rota and sixty methadone Patients await tomorrow. Nite nite all.

[Guest]

Frozen slush, great lol

All this talk of 12 inches of fresh snow is making me jealous.

It'll be fine in the end, you must live somewhere near the city centre not to have any snow at all.

Edited December 27, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[Ross B]

18Z is quite good for snow...

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z is quite good for snow...

Bit annoyed by the precipitation type map showing sleet for much of Tuesday night - most other outlooks have the low a bit further south and east so I doubt it will be that marginal, but in terms of precipitation, that is an absolute corker of a run.

[BlizzardConditions]

I'm afraid I don't have a clue how to read the models so please excuse my 'will it snow' type post. From venturing into the model thread, I understand that the GFS is showing the position of Tuesday's low to be further North than any other model (hence why Southerners are in uproar).

So, the snow that is being talked about in this thread, does that relate to potential snow for parts of Scotland from that particluar low or snow from the trend in general? (Such as the showers mentioned by LS from the Easterly). Or is the potential for snow from all of the above! Sounds like that low could bring rather huge falls for somewhere...

Cheers in advance for the help

Edited December 27, 2009 by BlizzardConditions

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm afraid I don't have a clue how to read the models so please excuse my 'will it snow' type post. From venturing into the model thread, I understand that the GFS is showing the position of Tuesday's low to be further North than any other model (hence why Southerners are in uproar).

So, the snow that is being talked about in this thread, does that relate to potential snow for parts of Scotland from that particluar low or snow from the trend in general? (Such as the showers mentioned by LS from the Easterly). Or is the potential for snow from all of the above! Sounds like that low could bring rather huge falls for somewhere...

Cheers in advance for the help

Hi BC! That model thread is getting out of hand. The 18Z looks a bit out of kilter with the rest of the models, although the main uproar is for the rain in the south, and it shows the low much further north giving loads of frontal and convective snow (and sleet for coastal areas) across mainly eastern and southern Scotland. However, I still feel this outlook lacks support at the moment, and the main threat appears to be from the convective snow showers from the North Sea. After that, the general pattern is very good for snow, with a northerly flow giving loads of potential for shortwaves and polar lows to bring more heavy snowfall almost anywhere.

Keep an eye on how far north this low is, as if it stays in a similar area in the midnight runs, particularly if the ECM moves the low a bit further north, then we could be looking at one of the biggest snow events for many many years, though uppers are more likely to be marginal. As I'm typing, though, the GFS ensembles are coming out, showing the low, on average, in the perfect position for us, quite a bit further north than on other models (with the exception of the GFS), but the uncertainty around the positioning of it is huge:

LS

[BlizzardConditions]

Hi BC! That model thread is getting out of hand. The 18Z looks a bit out of kilter with the rest of the models, although the main uproar is for the rain in the south, and it shows the low much further north giving loads of frontal and convective snow (and sleet for coastal areas) across mainly eastern and southern Scotland. However, I still feel this outlook lacks support at the moment, and the main threat appears to be from the convective snow showers from the North Sea. After that, the general pattern is very good for snow, with a northerly flow giving loads of potential for shortwaves and polar lows to bring more heavy snowfall almost anywhere.

Keep an eye on how far north this low is, as if it stays in a similar area in the midnight runs, particularly if the ECM moves the low a bit further north, then we could be looking at one of the biggest snow events for many many years, though uppers are more likely to be marginal. As I'm typing, though, the GFS ensembles are coming out, showing the low, on average, in the perfect position for us, quite a bit further north than on other models (with the exception of the GFS), but the uncertainty around the positioning of it is huge:

LS

Hey LS, thanks very much for that detailed reply - much appreciated!

Well, as sorry as I would (kind of!) feel for snow starved folk in the South I certainly wouldn't be that upset if the frontal snow turned up here! From dipping back into the model thread I read that the GFS is suffering from data errors (although I wonder how much of that is hope VS reality).

By the sounds of it the morning runs could prove quite crucial but either way it sounds like we have a good chance at more snow regardless of whether that low reaches us.

As for the model thread, I can understand to an extent the bias shown but comments from Northern Britain (inc Northern England) posters such as yourself, CMD and Mondy seem to be ignored and swallowed up in a sea of Southern desperation. Having said that, there is the odd remark about our continuing cold spell but they are few and far between!

Thanks again LS :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hey LS, thanks very much for that detailed reply - much appreciated!

Well, as sorry as I would (kind of!) feel for snow starved folk in the South I certainly wouldn't be that upset if the frontal snow turned up here! From dipping back into the model thread I read that the GFS is suffering from data errors (although I wonder how much of that is hope VS reality).

By the sounds of it the morning runs could prove quite crucial but either way it sounds like we have a good chance at more snow regardless of whether that low reaches us.

As for the model thread, I can understand to an extent the bias shown but comments from Northern Britain (inc Northern England) posters such as yourself, CMD and Mondy seem to be ignored and swallowed up in a sea of Southern desperation. Having said that, there is the odd remark about our continuing cold spell but they are few and far between!

Thanks again LS

No problem

It may be worth my while to pull a cheeky all-nighter on this one, but then again the ECM doesn't normally come out till about 6ish so I might just wake up earlier instead

Regardless of what happens regarding the low, and incidentally the low appears to have pulled further north than expected by the UKMO today, we do look to be in for a bit of a battering for snowfall, more particularly later in the week for you, when winds turn to more of a northerly. Nothing can be ruled out at this moment, except for any solution which doesn't include epic northern blocking as the AO has just gone really negative again. So relax: the cold is assured, so the snow will follow and, just as it was last week, it will crop up without too much warning.

LS

[Sunny Leith]

I look only at the models/model thread for a combination of entertainment (for any eye candy synoptics) ... and for some genuine trends to show up over the course of the coming week or so (maximum)... I stopped slitting my wrists on it years ago, the weather does what it wants and no amount of wish-casting will ever change that.

The discernible trend up here (as LS says) is for ongoing cold and the ongoing possibility of snow. The next week or so looks likely to take the Scottish cold spell to something approaching 3 weeks by that stage... which would be absolutely extraordinary in recent winters. And the best thing of all on here, is that local forecasting and knowledge ... and the judicious use of radar and nowcasting has beaten the metoffice in these parts over this last 11-12 days !

Edited December 27, 2009 by by-tor

[BlizzardConditions]

No problem

It may be worth my while to pull a cheeky all-nighter on this one, but then again the ECM doesn't normally come out till about 6ish so I might just wake up earlier instead

Regardless of what happens regarding the low, and incidentally the low appears to have pulled further north than expected by the UKMO today, we do look to be in for a bit of a battering for snowfall, more particularly later in the week for you, when winds turn to more of a northerly. Nothing can be ruled out at this moment, except for any solution which doesn't include epic northern blocking as the AO has just gone really negative again. So relax: the cold is assured, so the snow will follow and, just as it was last week, it will crop up without too much warning.

LS

Yeah, I think waking up earlier seems like a better option!

I think I'll do as you suggest and just relax and wait for the snowfest to start

Would be nice to have another event like Tuesday's here but have absolutely no complaints so far with regards to this winter. I'm struggling to remember the last prolonged cold spell we had so this has been fantastic.

You guys in the East seem to be well positioned so hopefully it continues for us all :lol:

Goodnight mate!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I look only at the models/model thread for a combination of entertainment (for any eye candy synoptics) ... and for some genuine trends to show up over the course of the coming week or so (maximum)... I stopped slitting my wrists on it years ago, the weather does what it wants and no amount of wish-casting will ever change that.

The discernible trend up here (as LS says) is for ongoing cold and the ongoing possibility of snow. The next week or so looks likely to take the Scottish cold spell to something approaching 3 weeks by that stage... which would be absolutely extraordinary in recent winters. And the best thing of all on here, is that local forecasting and knowledge ... and the judicious use of radar and nowcasting has beaten the metoffice in these parts over this last 11-12 days !

Indeed we have! Easterly convective events are easily the most interesting to radar watch as you never know what's going to happen, especially if that frontal snow comes into play on Tuesday night. It normally works out well here too: in fact, it is something which I feel has been the key to east central's lack of snow events in recent years - when a cold easterly/ENE hits, eastern Scotland usually get lots of snow. I look forward to another week of thrilling snow watching, when hopefully yet again we'll have amazingly few disappointed snow rampers!

If we beat the Met Office again, we should really be appointed the Scottish Met Office and given a £100,000 a year salary each for doing this! ! It would certainly quash the rumours of female relations of some members that they were surfing porn

Night all you snow addicts!!!

LS

Edited December 27, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowlover2]

morning all. All the snow frozen solid and my street is like an ice-rink. Gonna be a fun day since all the shoppers use my street to get to the local supermarket. Temp is -3.5 and dp is -4.0

[Methuselah]

Good morning SL2...It's -6C at Sneckie airport!

[Highland Snow]

Morning all. Minimum -11.1C, DP -12.2 so not quite breaking Christmas Eve's record -11.4C even with the deep snow cover.

[Snowlover2]

Temp here is falling. Now -3.8 and Dp is -4.3

now -4

[Mondy]

-9.4°C / DP -10.7°C

[Snowplough33]

Morning all. Everything is frozen solid this morning

What a 00z run...............2 weeks of east / north east winds and really cold uppers

[Snowlover2]

tell me about the 00z run as i have no idea how to read it....thank youuuuuu

[Methuselah]

tell me about the 00z run as i have no idea how to read it....thank youuuuuu

Weeelll...Forget too-much detail, but it looks like we'll be enjoying cold weather for quite some time: easterlies, northeasterlies and perhaps northerlies? As for snowfalls - who knows when or where?

[Methuselah]

We had a 'warm' spell yesterday evening; temp shot up to -1C and condensation formed on the outside of the windows. Now, I have ice-ferns on the outside of the windows. Unusual?

Now -7C at the airport!

[Snowlover2]

We had a 'warm' spell yesterday evening; temp shot up to -1C and condensation formed on the outside of the windows. Now, I have ice-ferns on the outside of the windows. Unusual?

Now -7C at the airport!

Thank you

Heres hoping for loads more snow. Temp climbed a wee bit here, now -3.9

[thejailender]

Another cold morning, currently -6.8'C with us.

Just seent he BBC weather andthey mentioned another cold day for us, but had an early warning for Snow tomorrow down Souf.

Then had a look at www.raintoday.co.uk and seen that there is a fair substantial band of snow heading South just bumping into the North coast as I type.

No mention of that even on the Scottish Weather

[Snowplough33]

tell me about the 00z run as i have no idea how to read it....thank youuuuuu

Basically, it suggests that the weather will be cold, (sometimes very cold), enough for snow in all parts of Scotland from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards. As mentioned above, the precipitation is not forecastable more that 24-48 hours out, so this will take care of itself, probaly in the form of showers generated by cold air blowing over the relitivley "warm" sea. The wind seems to generally be out the east and round to the north, so all aeras are likely to be exposed to the showers at some point. Much beond maybe 5 days again is a bit of a lottery even with wind direction, but the models at the moment suggest the wind continues from very cold sources throughout.(this will always change to some degree)

I am new to this aswell, but hope this helps a little

[Snowlover2]

Basically, it suggests that the weather will be cold, (sometimes very cold), enough for snow in all parts of Scotland from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards. As mentioned above, the precipitation is not forecastable more that 24-48 hours out, so this will take care of itself, probaly in the form of showers generated by cold air blowing over the relitivley "warm" sea. The wind seems to generally be out the east and round to the north, so all aeras are likely to be exposed to the showers at some point. Much beond maybe 5 days again is a bit of a lottery even with wind direction, but the models at the moment suggest the wind continues from very cold sources throughout.(this will always change to some degree)

I am new to this aswell, but hope this helps a little

Thank you, that was very nice of you to explain to me and makes things alot easier for me to understand