Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[derrylynne]

It's clouded over here with the temperature at 2C and falling with the dew point -0.4 - what comes out if that does not rise will be snow.....

[Jayfromcardiff]

I imagine many of you will be excited by Ian Fergusson's analysis of the situation. I very much enjoyed the talk of some incredible depths, in excess of a foot (without drifting) in certain areas. I hope that those of you who have the snow make the most of it tomorrow and the days ahead. Take pics / videos etc. This could be the sort of event that many of you have been waiting for ! Enjoy.

Cheers, nice to see people who are happy for others to get snow.

[andy_leics22]

It's clouded over here with the temperature at 2C and falling with the dew point -0.4 - what comes out if that does not rise will be snow.....

Not necassarily, last week it rained here when the ground temp was 1.5 and dew was -0.5 because the upper air temps were on the wrong side of marginal.

Honestly I really don't share the belief that ground below 300m in Wales will get even 10cm let alone 30cm so that is why I am warning you guys not to get too hopeful because this could be a real let down.

Cheers, nice to see people who are happy for others to get snow.

I would be happy if you guys got snow, just lets see what happens tomorrow...

[bennytes]

Guys in Wales... I would not be expecting too much just yet. All the models are disagreeing with each other on what will happen. A few models are suggesting that anywhere below 300m in Wales will get rain or sleet. So don't think that it is a garaunteed snowfest yet. Tomorrow will be much a case of nowcasting and radar watching to see where the band will end up and how far North the mild air will be. I would say though people in South Wales don't get your hopes up just yet... Because it is very borderline if you are lower than 300m.

Hmmm lol, you may well be slated by friends and neighbours if this goes belly up.

not really. i did explain to them that it's a knife edge situation, and that they do NOT want to be caught out.

they did understand.

Not necassarily, last week it rained here when the ground temp was 1.5 and dew was -0.5 because the upper air temps were on the wrong side of marginal.

Honestly I really don't share the belief that ground below 300m in Wales will get even 10cm let alone 30cm so that is why I am warning you guys not to get too hopeful because this could be a real let down.

it wouldn't be a let down for me, it'd be a relief. Got to keep a beady eye on these things.

personally speaking, without taking into account the charts, I have seen many events like this this past five years on here where a low comes steaming up the channel, looking like it's going to give a dumping to the south west, only to dive off into France at the last minute and do them instead.

If it does something similar THIS time, this could be epic, wouldn't you say?

[derrylynne]

Not necassarily, last week it rained here when the ground temp was 1.5 and dew was -0.5 because the upper air temps were on the wrong side of marginal.

Honestly I really don't share the belief that ground below 300m in Wales will get even 10cm let alone 30cm so that is why I am warning you guys not to get too hopeful because this could be a real let down.

I would be happy if you guys got snow, just lets see what happens tomorrow...

You had warmer upper air moving in when you had the freezing rain over there. Was an ice skating rink in Lincoln too. With no warmer upper at the moment and the temperature still dropping along with the dew point I would be surprised if it rained..Ian Ferguson has much more data at his disposal than we ever see here on the internet so what he said has to be taken seriously. Likewise I have warned those I know - with the caveat that if we are lucky it may fall as rain but best be prepared. Better than seeing people stuck with no bread or milk because they did not know what may happen...

Edited December 28, 2009 by derrylynne

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Dont expect to see 10-30cm in Southern Wales- not at all

Brecon Beacons probably the best place to see such accumulations.

[Cymro]

To be onest alot of you are talking thorugh your :D,

because atm nobody not one person can say what is going to happen its a forecast not a dead cert. The potential for snow is very serious this has got to be taken seriously. But this could all change with a flick of a button so complacency is never a pal of Welsh weather because its so mixed.

[andy_leics22]

personally speaking, without taking into account the charts, I have seen many events like this this past five years on here where a low comes steaming up the channel, looking like it's going to give a dumping to the south west, only to dive off into France at the last minute and do them instead.

If it does something similar THIS time, this could be epic, wouldn't you say?

Absolutely, just a case of wait and see now.

[willitbsunny]

Local shop completely out of bread & milk!!! If that isn't a jinx for heavy rain then i don't know what is!!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Headline:

Turning cloudier and windy with spells of rain or snow.

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold start to the night before becoming generally cloudy from the south, with rain or snow developing across most of the country by the end of the night. Also becoming increasingly windy. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Tuesday:

Generally cloudy, cold and windy, with rain or snow developing across all parts, and becoming heavy at times, especially over hills, with some snow drifting likely. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Updated: 1533 on Mon 28 Dec 2009

From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_weather.html

GFS 12z @ 18h: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png

NAE @ 18h: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2009/12/28/basis12/ukuk/pslv/09122906_2812.gif

Looks like a slight shift southward of that low to me- anyone else think so?

[CLH the red dragon]

Local shop completely out of bread & milk!!! If that isn't a jinx for heavy rain then i don't know what is!!

Co-Op? Did mine at 9 am there.

[willitbsunny]

No, Spar, Brynna - shelves empty!

[keithlucky]

From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_weather.html

GFS 12z @ 18h: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png

NAE @ 18h: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2009/12/28/basis12/ukuk/pslv/09122906_2812.gif

Looks like a slight shift southward of that low to me- anyone else think so?

A bit more southerley track we will be in buisness must keep the slightly warmer air further south.Listen we going to have a lot of people outside wales coming in our chat saying we aint going to get snow tonight.The only place who may not get snow is south coast. Edited December 28, 2009 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Jack one the gfs got the Lp further do you think it improves our chances of snow ?

[bennytes]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

southern tip of ireland been getting a soaking the past two hours

precipitation not making much headway at the moment, but I think it's fair to say HERE IT COMES!!

[keithlucky]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

southern tip of ireland been getting a soaking the past two hours

precipitation not making much headway at the moment, but I think it's fair to say HERE IT COMES!!

Raining there.

[pyrotech]

Jack one the gfs got the Lp further do you think it improves our chances of snow ?

The ukmo have awesome charts till 2nd Jan + if anyone misses the initial snow tonight ( South coastal like me in Cardiff) then you will have plenty more chances over next few days. This is defo 80s style like i forecast in the climate change forum in September

Here is what i said for the winter at start of December

- "So what can we expect from solar min for winter 2009/2010 ?

Think 80s - mild, cold and very cold cycles.

winter 2008/2009 saw heavy snow in South west UK that made the news.

This year expect snowfall accross the UK with more signifigant falls. Deep penertrating wind chill ( 1987)

I have been critisised previously as this is a weather forecast not climate forecast, i justify it with this.

If i just gave effects that would occur in 10 years time it would take 10 years to prove. I can only show what is happening by showing effects

that occur in months.

Low solar min has huge effects on earth. Effects stratosphere, jet, cloud cover and gulf stream."

well its pretty much on track and i am showing this as some will miss out tonight but this is not over by along shot. For some areas we are looking at dangerous and disruptive snowfall in next 48hours.

Edited December 28, 2009 by pyrotech

[Marcus_surfer]

Temperature is far too high here for snow, and with cloudcover here already, temperatures won't fall much now

[bennytes]

Raining there.

yeah, i know. just purchased the radar for a month too. money well spent i reckon.

[keithlucky]

The ukmo have awesome charts till 2nd Jan + if anyone misses the initial snow tonight ( South coastal like me in Cardiff) then you will have plenty more chances over next few days. This is defo 80s style like i forecast in the climate change forum in September

Here is what i said for the winter at start of December

- "So what can we expect from solar min for winter 2009/2010 ?

Think 80s - mild, cold and very cold cycles.

winter 2008/2009 saw heavy snow in South west UK that made the news.

This year expect snowfall accross the UK with more signifigant falls. Deep penertrating wind chill ( 1987)

I have been critisised previously as this is a weather forecast not climate forecast, i justify it with this.

If i just gave effects that would occur in 10 years time it would take 10 years to prove. I can only show what is happening by showing effects

that occur in months.

Low solar min has huge effects on earth. Effects stratosphere, jet, cloud cover and gulf stream."

well its pretty much on track and i am showing this as some will miss out tonight but this is not over by along shot. For some areas we are looking at dangerous and disruptive snowfall in next 48hours.

So you believe in solar forecasting? Edited December 28, 2009 by keithlucky

[BranMan]

Temperature is far too high here for snow, and with cloudcover here already, temperatures won't fall much now

temperature here 0.9C and the paths have all iced up and a heavy frost has developed since about 3pm.

If it rains here then it's going to freeze like an ice rink and I'm going to do the Bolero outside my house instead of building a snowman with the kids.

All jokes aside...if you have snow, think of anyone close by that might need your help ok.

Bullworker

Cwmbran SAE Wales 100m asl 2 heavy falls of snow already this December

[Wales123098]

Temperture 0.4c here and falling slightly the dewpoint is -1.2c snow is looking likely here with a warning out for my area. Shall be interesting im sure all areas of Wales will recieve some snow fall this week.

[DeepSnow]

Well temp now seems steady at 3.2c and dewpoint at 2.3C and its cloudy, hope the temps drop enough as the night goes on before the front gets here, but im not sure it will I think if anything it will atleast start of as rain here which might ruin any chance we had of any snow sticking, as any snow here will most likely be wet snow anyway.

[pyrotech]

So you believe in solar forecasting?

i will give you a clue! All terestrial weather is influenced , caused and instigated by the sun. period.

Any change to the output of the sun will change global temperatures and weather patterns. fact

Yes long range forcasting is influencd by solar energy thats why noaa have used it in the winter forecast.

Its about trends not day to day like we use on here

[Marcus_surfer]

+3C here, thats cold enough for snow, but we need this temperature to keep dropping now.