Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[J10]

Yup that was a great post made by Ian on the SW thread.

Still got the GFS 18Z and the NAE run to go, it would be more promising if that low was shifted southwards again.

GFS 18Hz further south by quite a margin, NAE not much change.

Overall- not much change to original thoughts, lamppost watch now begins.

Latest NAE:

18h: http://expert.weathe...122912_2818.gif

24: http://expert.weathe...122918_2818.gif

Snowfall for Mid Wales and Midlands with rain for those areas closer to the coast upper air temps just seem to high:

http://expert.weathe...122912_2818.gif

Not much change on latest NAE, initials thought as per Ian Fergusson very much in operation.

Definately agree. Mainly rain/sleet for South Wales. However, I think its safe to say that wherever the snow falls it will be deep.

Sorry for posting twice.

Well the NAE Snow/Rain indicator disagrees with that statement.

[CardiffStorm]

Latest NAE:

18h: http://expert.weathe...122912_2818.gif

24: http://expert.weathe...122918_2818.gif

Snowfall for Mid Wales and Midlands with rain for those areas closer to the coast upper air temps just seem to high:

http://expert.weathe...122912_2818.gif

Definately agree. Mainly rain/sleet for South Wales. However, I think its safe to say that wherever the snow falls it will be deep.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Merthyr and Brecon seem set for a good fall of snow i would say.

[andy_leics22]

Getting conflicting information... some are saying we will get it, others are saying we won't. At 330m asl, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

At 330m ASL I would say you have a very good chance of snow :blink:

[Jayfromcardiff]

GFS 18Hz further south by quite a margin, NAE not much change.

Overall- not much change to original thoughts, lamppost watch now begins.

Not much change on latest NAE, initials thought as per Ian Fergusson very much in operation.

Well the NAE Snow/Rain indicator disagrees with that statement.

Hi jack do you think i could see some snow ....73m asl.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Will go up the hills tomorrow i think, worth a try at 250-300m better chance of snow.

Good luck to everyone anyway B)

[J10]

Hi jack do you think i could see some snow ....73m asl.

My guess is a wintry mix, with snow falling at times ,but not settling.

[pyrotech]

Hi jack do you think i could see some snow ....73m asl.

With the NAE yes you could see 1-2cm by sometime Tuesday

[J10]

Getting conflicting information... some are saying we will get it, others are saying we won't. At 330m asl, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

You are looking very good at the moment, 2-4 inches definitely possible. (No Guarantees though)

[Nevesy]

I think the BBC may have just jinxed it for me!

[Jayfromcardiff]

With the NAE yes you could see 1-2cm by sometime Tuesday

Lol 1-2cm, tbh i'd rather it not snow because it wont last.

[pyrotech]

With the NAE yes you could see 1-2cm by sometime Tuesday

Hi jackone sorry for my conflicting reply but its so marginal that with height by end of tomorrow could see jay gettingn a covering but it is marginal ( your probably right and im prob being optamistic

[J10]

Hi jackone sorry for my conflicting reply but its so marginal that with height by end of tomorrow could see jay gettingn a covering but it is marginal ( your probably right and im prob being optamistic

No problem at all, you may be right.

[Jayfromcardiff]

No problem at all, you may be right.

Jack, what would need to happen in order for S wales to see snow?

[J10]

Looking at the latest radar, there are 2 fronts pushing up from the South West, the second one with its greater intensity is more likely to give snow. I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone staying up to the early hours for this one. An early night and an early start tomoorow may be more beneficial.

Good Luck to everyone with the snow, however do not be surprised with whatever happens, snow or rain is just about possible anywhere.

(obviously further inland and higher altitude, the more likely you will see snow.)

[CardiffStorm]

This is UKASF's forecast for us:

"The main focus of the day is towards the South as an Atlantic Low attempts to push up but will be put into a battleground situation across Wales and The Midlands. Precipitation will be slow moving allowing cold air to undercut. In Inland Wales and the Midlands, particularly the West Midlands, precipitation could turn to snow which will be heavy and prolonged. Higher areas could see severe problems. Lower ground could see snowfall too though perhaps a bit more marginal here.

Areas North of the M4 will mostly see the snow while south if here will see rain. There is a risk that snow may turn rather sleety or to rain at times as slightly milder air may nudge a little bit further North for a time but this is only a chance."

[J10]

Jack, what would need to happen in order for S wales to see snow?

The front to stall, and the milder upper air temps staying to the south for settling snow.

However, I would expect you to see some snow in the mix tomorrow.

This is UKASF's forecast for us:

"The main focus of the day is towards the South as an Atlantic Low attempts to push up but will be put into a battleground situation across Wales and The Midlands. Precipitation will be slow moving allowing cold air to undercut. In Inland Wales and the Midlands, particularly the West Midlands, precipitation could turn to snow which will be heavy and prolonged. Higher areas could see severe problems. Lower ground could see snowfall too though perhaps a bit more marginal here.

Areas North of the M4 will mostly see the snow while south if here will see rain. There is a risk that snow may turn rather sleety or to rain at times as slightly milder air may nudge a little bit further North for a time but this is only a chance."

The graphics associated with that are quite promising.

[bennytes]

lot of confusion. at least we are AWARE of the possibility of an extraordinary event this time.

30 years back we didn't have a clue.

at least everyone is 'prepared' for it this time.

good luck all anyway. off to bed. working in morning!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

That front just off Cornwall looks very heavy, wonder if metoffice will issue more warnings for the SW & Wales during the early hours. If not for snow then certainly heavy rain.

the front seems to hang around allot giving quite high rainfall totals:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs48sum.gif

If your in Mid Wales and on relatively high ground then i see potential for allot of Snow.

[mickeyflyn]

+3deg at 275ft alt here at the moment east wind picking up.

[BranMan]

Temperature has climbed here to 1.8C. Still icy pavements and calm outside. There is a cold breeze.

A bit unsure what we're going to get tomorrow, rain, sleet or snow....but I remember the days when it starts snowing here I've never seen it return to rain. The ground temps peg it right back if there's lying snow and it just carries on coming ( hopefully )

The last time I remember snow here in Cwmbran was 95/96 january and it snowed for 3 days solid...i think that year was correct.

We've already had two quite good snow evets here in Cwmbran this December 2009 and the last one last week practically gridlocked Cwmbran and left hundreds of people stranded in their cars only to abandon them and walk home.

In fact, the Cwmbran car parks were unable to empty as the traffic was that chaotic around the town people couldn't get out onto the roads from the car parks for approx 45 minutes....it was mayhem...

let's hope if we do get snbow again then people are mnore prepared this time around

watching the radar now and keeping in touch with the temps...

will it or wont it

wait until daylight !

Cwmbran

Se Wales 100m asl

5 miles east of newport on higher ground.

Free parking in the town.....lol....

[Bafan]

Thanks for the replies! I was soooooo hoping to get a day off work tomorrow - quite a distance to travel from here to Cwmbran. Will have to wait and see I guess.

[Nevesy]

95/96 is correct (I think...), that is the only really good snowfall I can remember, with over a foot of snow.

I think the main reason Cwmbran was so hectic is because it was so close to Christmas, plus nearly rush hour. I think we could still get it you know bullworker, fingers crossed.

[BranMan]

Shouldn't have put traffic lights by the new VUE leisure complex because it's caused chaos but when it snowed the other day everyone was in a mad panic to get out a flee the town because the snow was very heavy, very quick and very settling. It caused mayhen around the town. The roads didn't clear until 1845 hrs...but now it has all gone.....chaotic weather to the extreme.

If this happens again...we should be prepared but something tells me we're not...

rain or snow....

am going to bed now to dream of waking up to a wet landscape or a winter wonderland...

i think it'll be a bit of a mix and a very messy day. The panic will set in later on again on Tuesday when it starts to turn very cold and snow starts settling in.....or will it...

who knows...

West pontnewydd this end by the way, where are you Nevesy?

[DeepSnow]

Well i think some of the milder air has come over us as its now 3.5C with an increasing easterly breeze. Im not staying up to much longer as if the temp stays like this it will most deffo atleast start as rain, so will see how things are now in the morning and hope for the best of luck snow wise for everyone!!