East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 19

[MAF]

The shower trains already getting going over the NE- quite strong banding as well- quite a good angle of flow as well-

Probably another 12-18 hours before the wintry stuff starts arriving in the SE-

My belief is the end of the week delivers a cover of snow for East Kent, Suffolk & EA- the likes of NW kent, essex & greater london will see some flurries etc- & maybe a dusting due to trough activity moving SW- the good news is though after that dewpoints are very low & developments in the SW should be enough to deliver frontal snow & or convective snow-

I suppose my thoughts are its going to gert better & better- with th prospect of a LP anchoring to the South East of Kent- depending on that windflow there will be some hefty falls of the white stuff-

S

fingers crossed than steve for B'heath and Plumstead

[Sno' problem]

The shower trains already getting going over the NE- quite strong banding as well- quite a good angle of flow as well-

Probably another 12-18 hours before the wintry stuff starts arriving in the SE-

My belief is the end of the week delivers a cover of snow for East Kent, Suffolk & EA- the likes of NW kent, essex & greater london will see some flurries etc- & maybe a dusting due to trough activity moving SW- the good news is though after that dewpoints are very low & developments in the SW should be enough to deliver frontal snow & or convective snow-

I suppose my thoughts are its going to gert better & better- with th prospect of a LP anchoring to the South East of Kent- depending on that windflow there will be some hefty falls of the white stuff-

S

Any chance of a Thames streamer with the current synoptics?

[SMU]

Any chance of a Thames streamer with the current synoptics?

certainly not on round 1 of the cold- winds are to Northerly ( that doesnt mean we will be dry-) just not a streamer-

best chance comes in the 120-168 range when the low pressure in the atlantic trundles along the south & takes up residence to the SE-- wind profiles will be more easterly then-

Steve

[Sno' problem]

Cheers mate. Looking at the 00z, 126-132 is looking quite handy for the chances of a streamer forming.

[SMU]

Cheers mate. Looking at the 00z, 126-132 is looking quite handy for the chances of a streamer forming.

Both the GFS & UKMO 00z are building a lot of surface cold out to the east of us around 120-168- together with possible surface high development over scandi-

watch subsequent model runs for a wedge ( triangle ish in shape move Eastwards & ridge to the surface high over scandi-) this will indicate an old fashioned scandi easterly brewing- also lowering heights over France as the jet pulses back north

I think our best chance of sustained & heavy snow comes from these type of developments, combined with the fact that the low pressure over svalbard moves south at a slow pace-

GFS rebuilds heights over Scandi towards FI which is the evolution I hinted at last night, thats via a slight 'topple' if you like from greenland, but reinforced heights developing NE out of the azores- much how Jan 1947 started-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470118.gif

Only our high would be more NW-

As for snow COVER I think this Thurs & friday will bring snow to the region 50/50 whether we get cover- Id image Kent & Suffolk ( & EA) with lucky cover elsewhere- turning dry & very frosty-

I think the GFS is overcooking temps- I see a surface cold pool developing-

The UKMO is also worth noting as the norwegian shortwave continues to move around bringing the threat of snow to anywhere......

GFS ensemble mean at 120

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-120.png?0

The GH is a lot stronger & more NE than the 18z & also the low pressure over Spain is around 150 miles North- so excellent prospects........

Just a last edit RE my wedge of high pressure - the GFS ensemble mean now at 192 has now dropped down to -11C for London with the MAJORITY going for an easterly like this-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-1-204.png?0

THis is the WEDGE you want to see-

S

Cheers

Steve

Edited December 31, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Great Plum]

Morning to everyone... I know that we are definately in for a very cold spell, but looking at the models with my very inexperienced eye, I can't see too much precepitation... is this spell going to be bone dry or are we expecting some snow later? I know there was talk of next Monday a few days ago...

[tinybill]

morning all all eyes on the dutch radar for later plus the new met radar or the metro radar for our streamers

[Great Plum]

I didn't think any streamers were expected at the moment...

[Neilsouth]

No snow mentioned for us on the local south east forecast , no snow mentioned for us on sky news weather... all that was mentioned as rain or sleet !

No warnings

Exactly as i said last night , everything shifts nearer the time why can't they be reliably spot on what a waste of tax payers money

[Barometric]

I haven't posted much on Net Weather in the past but I would like to start by saying a massive thankyou to Steve M, not only for his educated analysis but also for his enthusiasm, optimism and good old fashioned excitment for the weather in the UK and our small corner of this country especially when talking of all things wintery.

I thought I would find it hard to find anyone with my enthusiasm for weather and especially cold and snow, but then realised that everyone on here has this shared passion.

I will do my best to keep everyone updated during this spell and being placed on the N Kent coast just south of Sheppey, I should recieve any 'NE action' before the rest of you. If its snow here you know that downwind its definately gonna be snow as the last spell and many others have proved. We got around 5cm here yet 5 miles inland, Detling recieved 15cms and Tonbridge Wells getting on for 20cms!!

Its goning to be a great 2 weeks worth of winter weather and glad I can be a very small part of it all.

James

[fatyido]

Morning to everyone... I know that we are definately in for a very cold spell, but looking at the models with my very inexperienced eye, I can't see too much precepitation... is this spell going to be bone dry or are we expecting some snow later? I know there was talk of next Monday a few days ago...

Im afraid we have been sucked in again by all the hype. Papers talking of a Big Freeze, the lads in the outlook model discussion talking of the greatest set up for years... All we can expect is a cold easterly wind for a few days, frosty nights, and the outside chance of a rouge snow shower passing through overnight, maybe giving a light dusting.

Ive been searching through all the tv channels and web sites, but alas no sign of the widespread heavy snow that was predicted last week.

You may sense im alittle disappointed, and that is the case - and i will still be looking at the lamp post every few minutes, and checking the radars like the rest, but we really are clutching at straws relying on snow showers deveolping from such a dry air set up.

Having got that off my chest - I so hope im wrong, but ive lowered my expectation levels greatly. Happy Lamp post watching....

[Neilsouth]

Well said fatyido , i'd love to be proved wrong though

[Great Plum]

Those are my thoughts at the moment too... I think we will have some cold and sometimes bitterly cold weather over the next week or two but not much in the way of snowfall... however, I'm no expert when it comes to looking at the models and maybe after the weekend, it will be clearer...

However, precipitation keeps seeming to be moved back... take today for example; only a couple of days ago Steve was talking about the front coming south and giving the SE a few cm - we will be lucky to see a shower... Monday's snow has disappeared now as well...

[fatyido]

Those are my thoughts at the moment too... I think we will have some cold and sometimes bitterly cold weather over the next week or two but not much in the way of snowfall... however, I'm no expert when it comes to looking at the models and maybe after the weekend, it will be clearer...

However, precipitation keeps seeming to be moved back... take today for example; only a couple of days ago Steve was talking about the front coming south and giving the SE a few cm - we will be lucky to see a shower... Monday's snow has disappeared now as well...

I know, i really admire those who can read the charts, and try to make a prediction based on weather trends and windflow charts, - but if we are honest it is merely guessing, sometimes even hopeful thoughts on the outcome.

Every time, just like you say, the snow events keeps getting put back or fizzling out altogether. My view is, that it is almost a lottery to predict outcomes just by looking at trends and colourful charts.

Having said that i wish I had the expertise that some people have on here, because a share a passion, but I put it in the same catergry as trying to predict football results or horse racing....

[PLANET THANET]

No snow mentioned for us on the local south east forecast , no snow mentioned for us on sky news weather... all that was mentioned as rain or sleet !

No warnings

Exactly as i said last night , everything shifts nearer the time why can't they be reliably spot on what a waste of tax payers money

Hi Neil

I now its perhaps not much. but at least its a start that local radio has just said SNOW showers overnight for east kent, hope that helps a little

[Hammer]

Snowfall almost always in the UK happens without weeks of notice, often just hours or a couple of days. However models provide a great tool showing trends. Often the timing might not be correct hence why some he are all to quick to post streams of dissapointment.

What should be said to the likes of fatyido and I mean this in a good way, is the trend is that we will have embedded cold with several opportunities for snowfall in our region over next 10 days.

What not even the greatest expert in the world can say is the exact timing of these events, nor the intensity.

Gents please be patient.

[Neilsouth]

Hi Neil

I now its perhaps not much. but at least its a start that local radio has just said SNOW showers overnight for east kent, hope that helps a little

Thanks Planet Thanet , can only but live in hope

[essex coast matt]

just had a modarate rain shower here, temps dropped back to 2.5c, is the cold air starting to cut in yet?

[Coast]

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And never brought to mind?

[Neilsouth]

^ Gfs did that last time and it was WAY off

[Ben_Cambs]

Heres what I expect to happen from tomorrow:

Tomorrow will be very cold. Later in the day snow showers begin to push into EA, these heavy and quite frequent, and may come in a band. This may give a covering to many parts of EA and parts of the SE, although at this stage it appears to be heading SW.

The weekend will be very cold but dry with severe overnight frosts, and most likely Monday to.

But after that, as the North Easterlies take charge and North Sea Convection increases, I can see heavy and frequent snow showers from Tuesday onwards, and possibly merging into longer bands of snow

Edited December 31, 2009 by Snowman0697

[loafer]

I find it hard to see that we won't see some snow in the SE with the GFS and Fax charts for midnight tonight through to about 18hrs tomorrow, as it drags moisture from the north sea whilst approaching from a NE direction - is that the setup for a Kent Streamer?

After that it looks rather too northerly for a while.

[Azores Hi]

I find it hard to see that we won't see some snow in the SE with the GFS and Fax charts for midnight tonight through to about 18hrs tomorrow, as it drags moisture from the north sea whilst approaching from a NE direction - is that the setup for a Kent Streamer?

After that it looks rather too northerly for a while.

I agree with this, it's just a lottery now as to exactly where the showers form and how heavy they will be.

As to your last point, isn't it ironic and a testiment to these current strange synoptics, that in recent years, we are more used to northerlys toppling into easterlys. But this winter it seems that easterlys topple into northerlies.

Everything has gone backwards!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I find it hard to see that we won't see some snow in the SE with the GFS and Fax charts for midnight tonight through to about 18hrs tomorrow, as it drags moisture from the north sea whilst approaching from a NE direction - is that the setup for a Kent Streamer?

After that it looks rather too northerly for a while.

Yes, I think that the first part especially of tomorrow there is very likely to be snow showers around for Kent/East sussex - these continuing into the afternoon and then followed hopefully by a frosty dusk and any snow cover becoming crispy and dry.

Looks like this is a sighter before an even bigger swathe of polar bears arrives next week

Edited December 31, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[k66yla]

The only place I reckon it will snow today/tonight is anywhere East of Canterbury. If you want to see snow Neil I think your best bet is St Nicholas at Wade roundabout