East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 19

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think there will be a few suprised people in the far SE come New Years Day. Like NSSC, I too have been watching developments closely over the last 36 or so hours and must say that I am quietly confident of a white New Year in my part of Kent.

The window is admitedly, quite small (around 24 to 36 hours, the latter in E Kent) but it is there nonetheless and has the potential of delivering snow that could quite possibly lie for the next 2 weeks, especially on the N Downs and High Weald, looking at current model predictions. Plus I am sure there will be other noteable snowfall here in Kent over the coming 7-10 days, most of which will only be firmed up 24-36 hours prior to happening.

For me the period to watch is midnight thursday to midday friday, any earlier than that and I think things would be a little marginal certainly here anyway, not so further inland with 200m elevation.

Walking back from the village pub early friday morning could be very interesting indeed and make up for the lack of snow over christmas.

James

Hi James - the timing could be perfect actually. The decently cold air arrives early enough during the evening and the wind vector looks perfect to draw snow showers across our area

Although a bit shorter in term of the snow convection period, it looks like a mini version of December 2005 to me which gave me really good snow cover. Enough to give a decent enough covering this time perhaps, relative to the time period but this time with the difference being, as you say that the cold air sticks around longer afterwards with hopefully some excellent further snow potential next week with freezing temps and a biting north easterly .

[Neilsouth]

I think there will be a few suprised people in the far SE come New Years Day

I was supprised the last time , it rained

[kold weather]

Depends on the instablity of the flow and if any troughs come with the flow as well, these features don't tend to be easy to pick up for the models and are prone to last minute upgrades.

Regardless of that, we are looking at a very cold 10 day spell at the moment, and if the block topples strongly over the UK I'd not be surprised to see that extended as well...

[Barometric]

Hi James - the timing could be perfect actually. The decently cold air arrives early enough during the evening and the wind vector looks perfect to draw snow showers across our area

Although a bit shorter in term of the snow convection period, it looks like a mini version of December 2005 to me which gave me really good snow cover. Enough to give a decent enough covering this time perhaps, relative to the time period but this time with the difference being, as you say that the cold air sticks around longer afterwards with hopefully some excellent further snow potential next week with freezing temps and a biting north easterly .

I agree and over the last 36 hours the colder air has been digging down a little earlier with each run, which does coincide very nicely with our 'wind' window.

Ah Dec 2005, a great little spell that one. I remember driving down to Ashford and over the N Downs just to the east (must have been 1-2 days after the snowfall and the day before the snowy, albeit brief, breakdown). 3pm, sunny and the temp was around -2. It was a stunning scene and one that I am sure will be repeated over the coming 10-14 days somewhere in the SE if not everywhere in the SE.

The absolute beauty of this predicted spell is its longevity and its potential not only to deliver snowfall but also the potential for some extreme night time minima. I remember when I lived in Essex during 1981 and remember popping out every hour as an 8 year old boy and checking the temperature on the side of the shed. We had many nights in that spell where it hit -10 to -15 and many times it was that before I had gone to bed!!

I could reel off so many stories of cold weather having lived through the late 70's, 80's and 90's but I am sure it would bore everyone to death. The weather fascinated me just as much then as it does now.

James

I was supprised the last time , it rained

Your optimism always inspires me Neil LOL!!

You'll get your snow between now and March, it's almost a given!

James

[MAF]

well james at 47 years old i have seen a few decent winters too. unfortunately too few this last 10 years. god how i hated the winters where day and night temps stayed the same mild double figures so am really hoping this season is one where; snow or no snow, it convinces my daughters that we really do have cold weather in winter.

[john mac]

I agree and over the last 36 hours the colder air has been digging down a little earlier with each run, which does coincide very nicely with our 'wind' window.

Ah Dec 2005, a great little spell that one. I remember driving down to Ashford and over the N Downs just to the east (must have been 1-2 days after the snowfall and the day before the snowy, albeit brief, breakdown). 3pm, sunny and the temp was around -2. It was a stunning scene and one that I am sure will be repeated over the coming 10-14 days somewhere in the SE if not everywhere in the SE.

The absolute beauty of this predicted spell is its longevity and its potential not only to deliver snowfall but also the potential for some extreme night time minima. I remember when I lived in Essex during 1981 and remember popping out every hour as an 8 year old boy and checking the temperature on the side of the shed. We had many nights in that spell where it hit -10 to -15 and many times it was that before I had gone to bed!!

I could reel off so many stories of cold weather having lived through the late 70's, 80's and 90's but I am sure it would bore everyone to death. The weather fascinated me just as much then as it does now.

James

Your optimism always inspires me Neil LOL!!

You'll get your snow between now and March, it's almost a given!

James

Great post mate

Those were the good old days. Ihopeimnot too far inland to miss out on the snow

[rmc1987]

Depends on the instablity of the flow and if any troughs come with the flow as well, these features don't tend to be easy to pick up for the models and are prone to last minute upgrades.

Regardless of that, we are looking at a very cold 10 day spell at the moment, and if the block topples strongly over the UK I'd not be surprised to see that extended as well...

Could you roughly say how cold? Rough day maxima and night minima for London? Mostly sunny though I guess?

[john mac]

Could you roughly say how cold? Rough day maxima and night minima for London? Mostly sunny though I guess?

Ice days galore i would have thought

[damianslaw]

I believe that areas in EA especially will have a small covering of snow by Friday night, the trough that originated from Norway has grudually come further south and west. The feature will slip down EA and the SE and may give a few cm of snow, especially in EA as the cold will be embedded here by Friday for definate.

For next week, although the North Easterly arrives on Monday, I dont think any PPN will arrive until at least Monday night

I'll be leaving the Lake District tomorrow and spending New Years Eve and Day in Ipswich, my first time in East Anglia, hoping for some snow at some stage, I would agree conditions look favourable for much of east and north East Anglia at least and hopefully Ipswich. My trip back to the Lakes on Saturday could be interesting..

[kold weather]

Could you roughly say how cold? Rough day maxima and night minima for London? Mostly sunny though I guess?

For London city itself I'd imagine 1-2C maxes for at least the first few days of the cold spell and mins around -2/3C...the outskirts of London will be colder then that, esp by night, I'd imagine -4/5C's would be probable...esp to the west and north of London.

After that if we see the slack NE drift develop like the models tonight, you could probably shave another 1-2C off those London maxes and mins, and obviously the same applies to the outskirts, in such a slack flow -10s would be more then possible in the usual cold spots...

However thats only a real rough guide...I could be out with those temps of course!

[MAF]

I'll be leaving the Lake District tomorrow and spending New Years Eve and Day in Ipswich, my first time in East Anglia, hoping for some snow at some stage, I would agree conditions look favourable for much of east and north East Anglia at least and hopefully Ipswich. My trip back to the Lakes on Saturday could be interesting..

well one thing for sure, snow or not, you wont need a sledge in EA. its as flat as a pancake there

i think anyone travelling over the coming weekend will need to take care.

[Barometric]

Could you roughly say how cold? Rough day maxima and night minima for London? Mostly sunny though I guess?

Central London would probably remain at or just above freezing during daylight hours and of course would not be effected so much by snow cover and low level cold as much as the coutryside around. Night time minima would be around -1 to -5. However, my guessing is that the longevity of the cold WILL cause infrastructure problems and thats before dismissing the distinct possiblity of frontal, convective or trough induced snowfall. IF the wind aligns itself perfectly then there is no reason whatsoever why a Feb 2008 event would not reoccur blanketing the Capital in snow.

Move out of central London into the Bexley foothills to the south and east and temps would be significantly lower and also the chance of snowfall would increase too with added elevation and more exposure to a potential NE wind and associated streamers.

James

[danm]

The warnings are out for Essex, Kent & E Sussex, yet a large circle appears in the middle without a warning, i.e London, as if the snow will just magically take a detour around the capital and meander into East Sussex. Surely some parts of east London have a chance of being affected?

[rmc1987]

For London city itself I'd imagine 1-2C maxes for at least the first few days of the cold spell and mins around -2/3C...the outskirts of London will be colder then that, esp by night, I'd imagine -4/5C's would be probable...esp to the west and north of London.

After that if we see the slack NE drift develop like the models tonight, you could probably shave another 1-2C off those London maxes and mins, and obviously the same applies to the outskirts, in such a slack flow -10s would be more then possible in the usual cold spots...

However thats only a real rough guide...I could be out with those temps of course!

Oh, I thought it'd be colder actually. I guess I got too excited but hopefully the slack NE drift will develop! Mind you if it's like you said for a while that'll be fairly significant I'd say. I saw on the GFS that ppn in the form of snow is showing for Mon/Tues....is this correct or is the GFS best ignored for ppn with regards to snow?

EDIT; What is the slack NE drift, what should one look out for? Sorry....

Edited December 31, 2009 by rmc1987

[john mac]

I'll be leaving the Lake District tomorrow and spending New Years Eve and Day in Ipswich, my first time in East Anglia, hoping for some snow at some stage, I would agree conditions look favourable for much of east and north East Anglia at least and hopefully Ipswich. My trip back to the Lakes on Saturday could be interesting..

I'd book into a hotel for a few days, you'll miss all the fun and games when the south east comesto a stand still with an inch of snow

[rmc1987]

Central London would probably remain at or just above freezing during daylight hours and of course would not be effected so much by snow cover and low level cold as much as the coutryside around. Night time minima would be around -1 to -5. However, my guessing is that the longevity of the cold WILL cause infrastructure problems and thats before dismissing the distinct possiblity of frontal, convective or trough induced snowfall. IF the wind aligns itself perfectly then there is no reason whatsoever why a Feb 2008 event would not reoccur blanketing the Capital in snow.

Move out of central London into the Bexley foothills to the south and east and temps would be significantly lower and also the chance of snowfall would increase too with added elevation and more exposure to a potential NE wind and associated streamers.

James

Well I'm in Slough and it is often significantly cooler here than in London, of course. I usually measure my temperatures against London Heathrow as it's the closest official site to me. I recored temps about 3c lower during the day and anything from 4c to 6c cooler at night. There's been a few occasions when the weather has been overcast and wet where the difference is negligable.

[pureasthedriven]

Oh, I thought it'd be colder actually. I guess I got too excited but hopefully the slack NE drift will develop! Mind you if it's like you said for a while that'll be fairly significant I'd say. I saw on the GFS that ppn in the form of snow is showing for Mon/Tues....is this correct or is the GFS best ignored for ppn with regards to snow?

EDIT; What is the slack NE drift, what should one look out for? Sorry....

That is cold! Add a windchill onto that, too... Slack NE drift would refer basically to LP pressure pulling away SE and the winds backing off, as shown by widening gaps in the isobars. Under a slack flow, very cold air becomes more stagnant and not 'mixed', which, as much as anything else, leads to lower night time temps, which in turn struggle to recover during the day, especially IF there's snow cover.

Not terribly technical but that's the gist.

[Paul Sherman]

BBC News had Rob McElwee on at 9.30 (interview rather than forecast) saying could get interesting for the SE on Friday - referring to snow

The Man is a Legend!! Nuff Said

[Derp Patrol]

Hard to tell really, because London is a warm spot, but I would definately imagine that minimums could sink to -5C even in the city? I live near Heathrow which tends to be warmer than most surrounding places.. for example in July quite often it rarely goes below 15C at night, but in surrounding areas it tends to be lower.

I think that by this time next week we will all have a fairly good coverin of snow

[MAF]

The Man is a Legend!! Nuff Said

whats your views on the weekend Paul? anything good for your area? and will you be struggling on the train 1st day back to work

[kold weather]

Oh, I thought it'd be colder actually. I guess I got too excited but hopefully the slack NE drift will develop! Mind you if it's like you said for a while that'll be fairly significant I'd say. I saw on the GFS that ppn in the form of snow is showing for Mon/Tues....is this correct or is the GFS best ignored for ppn with regards to snow?

EDIT; What is the slack NE drift, what should one look out for? Sorry....

As long as there is enough of a SW thrust to the low over Scandinavia we should get some sort of NE airflow, of course the low to the south also could delay that flow as well...

Here is a good chart, notice the trough line over N.England introducing slightly colder air, the the front coming down introducing even colder air yet again...thats what we want.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack4.gif

Also watch those SST's plummet yet again, they are getting to the point where they won't modify the easterly airflows quite so much anymore and areas closer to the coast may be brought more into play...

[Paul Sherman]

whats your views on the weekend Paul? anything good for your area? and will you be struggling on the train 1st day back to work

Hi Mick

Back on the 4th so should not have any worries getting in, made it in the last time we got 16cm so this should not be a problem this time.

For tomorrow around the 9pm timescale I'd expect the Snow showers to hit the North Kent Coast from Deal to Sheppey, then skim the Medway Towns on the eastern edge, hitting the Weald of Kent and onto the Crowborough Area of Sussex, anywhere east of a Tonbridge down to Burgess Hill line should get a decent 2-5cm, the Weald and Ashford, Hills around Folkestone etc should get about 10cm somewhere in a lucky spot.

Not a lot else for anyone until maybe some Snow showers pushing further in towards the London area over the Weekend, middle of next week looks interesting but it is always 5-6 days away.

Paul S

[rmc1987]

Thanks for the info guys ......here's hoping it all goes right. Fingers crossed because I'm specially looking forward to seeing something I haven't seen in a UK winter. Oh and some more snow .....less than 24 hours away from the 2nd decade of this millenium now!

[MAF]

Hi Mick

Back on the 4th so should not have any worries getting in, made it in the last time we got 16cm so this should not be a problem this time.

For tomorrow around the 9pm timescale I'd expect the Snow showers to hit the North Kent Coast from Deal to Sheppey, then skim the Medway Towns on the eastern edge, hitting the Weald of Kent and onto the Crowborough Area of Sussex, anywhere east of a Tonbridge down to Burgess Hill line should get a decent 2-5cm, the Weald and Ashford, Hills around Folkestone etc should get about 10cm somewhere in a lucky spot.

Not a lot else for anyone until maybe some Snow showers pushing further in towards the London area over the Weekend, middle of next week looks interesting but it is always 5-6 days away.

Paul S

yeah 5-6 days too far away

my last night sift this year and then back in 4 days time. like you the february snow only made travel to work a bit of a slog ( i walked from tower bridge to whitehall ) so am not expecting too many problems on 4th i have to admit i am really unsure that there will be much PPN over the comnig days. but am more than willing to be proved wrong

[SMU]

The shower trains already getting going over the NE- quite strong banding as well- quite a good angle of flow as well-

Probably another 12-18 hours before the wintry stuff starts arriving in the SE-

My belief is the end of the week delivers a cover of snow for East Kent, Suffolk & EA- the likes of NW kent, essex & greater london will see some flurries etc- & maybe a dusting due to trough activity moving SW- the good news is though after that dewpoints are very low & developments in the SW should be enough to deliver frontal snow & or convective snow-

I suppose my thoughts are its going to gert better & better- with th prospect of a LP anchoring to the South East of Kent- depending on that windflow there will be some hefty falls of the white stuff-

S