General Model Output Discussion:

[Duane S.]

I assume this 'event' isn't going to hit this part of country? It seems rather quiet in here! What is expected from these charts?

rmc, if you want a chance of a classic winter then you would do well to go and get a pencil and draw better charts for us (within the realms of plausabilty for a temperate island located where we are) than we currently have on offer. This COULD go very pear shaped but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Things could downgrade fairly significantly, not impossible but still unlikely. Or... the charts go actually verify (albeit upgrade/downgrade a bit), this is the likely outcome. Nobody can say how you will do regards snow. Yes it is quiet there now I expect, but that was always going to be the case for Wednesday 01:42am in your neck of the woods.

What BFTP is saying is that , genuinely, and for once, we have a REAL shot at getting in some severe wintery weather. Not just in terms of the 'events' themselves but also in terms of longetivity. The teleconnections back it for a change.

Enjoy the ride, yes it may all go wrong but we may have to wait a long long time for a chance like this again.

[Downburst]

Guys, I've been analysing most outputs on this site for the last 2 years, and am what you call in England a Scientist by profession who inputs into the virtual soup we all are reflecting on. I remember Winters from no earlier than the 70's, but certainly recall and smell the air of the times we used to skate on a frozen pond, certainly not every year, up until the mid 80's in farm land in a part of southern Ireland. The farmland was named "Ice House Hill" (which was a parkland area named as a result of a building situated nearby that the Victorians used to store ice in from the very same pond that we skated on that would freeze up on occasions, and they would grab the ice to store for the summer) anyway the ice formed as it did last when I was a little chap and for the first time in 20 years, this year (I have not been here every winter since I was a boy) the ice froze hard enough for me (13 stone, 6 2") to jump on it on Boxing Day. No it was not as thick or covered as ’87 but it held my weight!

Having wished for hot summer weather these last couple of years, and not got it, and now having cold winter weather and living in it I can’t help be feel sad for folks that are being anal about the output, why not take this and enjoy it, go for walks with your loved ones or yourself and enjoy the countryside and feel the weather on your face and feet and come home and feel housed. Rant over and sorry for any spelling mistakes 

[rmc1987]

rmc, if you want a chance of a classic winter then you would do well to go and get a pencil and draw better charts for us (within the realms of plausabilty for a temperate island located where we are) than we currently have on offer. This COULD go very pear shaped but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Things could downgrade fairly significantly, not impossible but still unlikely. Or... the charts go actually verify (albeit upgrade/downgrade a bit), this is the likely outcome. Nobody can say how you will do regards snow. Yes it is quiet there now I expect, but that was always going to be the case for Wednesday 01:42am in your neck of the woods.

What BFTP is saying is that , genuinely, and for once, we have a REAL shot at getting in some severe wintery weather. Not just in terms of the 'events' themselves but also in terms of longetivity. The teleconnections back it for a change.

Enjoy the ride, yes it may all go wrong but we may have to wait a long long time for a chance like this again.

I was really just looking for possible snowfalls and temperatures expected from these charts. I've come to realise the outlook can change and who knows but I'm now hearing reference to very cold charts etc etc. BFTP's post looked knowledgable and I thought he could elaborate for me on the output of these charts.

[cj114]

Have to agree with Downburst. I remember walking on the ice on the Hollow Ponds in Snaresbrook East London in the 80's. It was so thick and lasted for weeks.

Yes, enjoy what we have, December has been a real winter month and whatever the rest of the winter holds people will remember that December '09 was like Winters of old.

In the 80's though it used to be after new year before the cold really set in.

I'm just glad this time around I have Central Heating [i dread the bill this year as last years was dreadful] and will be warm, unlike the 80's when all I had was a Gas Fire.

However things turn out the charts have made amazing viewing. I remember pouring over charts in the 70's when the Met Office were a phone call away. lol

We made our own and sent poor Pilots of on their travels on our say so. Luckily they all survived.

Hey, we may even get a Summer next year! Who knows? :lol:

[swilliam]

Guys, I've been analysing most outputs on this site for the last 2 years, and am what you call in England a Scientist by profession who inputs into the virtual soup we all are reflecting on. I remember Winters from no earlier than the 70's, but certainly recall and smell the air of the times we used to skate on a frozen pond, certainly not every year, up until the mid 80's in farm land in a part of southern Ireland. The farmland was named "Ice House Hill" (which was a parkland area named as a result of a building situated nearby that the Victorians used to store ice in from the very same pond that we skated on that would freeze up on occasions, and they would grab the ice to store for the summer) anyway the ice formed as it did last when I was a little chap and for the first time in 20 years, this year (I have not been here every winter since I was a boy) the ice froze hard enough for me (13 stone, 6 2") to jump on it on Boxing Day. No it was not as thick or covered as '87 but it held my weight!

Having wished for hot summer weather these last couple of years, and not got it, and now having cold winter weather and living in it I can't help be feel sad for folks that are being anal about the output, why not take this and enjoy it, go for walks with your loved ones or yourself and enjoy the countryside and feel the weather on your face and feet and come home and feel housed. Rant over and sorry for any spelling mistakes 

Nice rant but I am afraid some people are never satisfied and, worse, seem to think that every winter in the 60s, 70s and 80s, had endless cold periods and massive snowstorms. My teenage years were from 1970 to 1977 when we had a succession of snowless winters (like recently) but despite this I became really interested in weather. When we did get some cold winters 78/89, 81/82 Jan 85 (although I was in Scotland that year and this was quite an unmemorable event), Feb 86, Jan 87 and Feb 91 these were characterised by either single very cold events (87, 91), some longish events (eg few weeks but only 1 or 2 snowstorms 81/82, Feb 86,) or cold periods (say 1 week) interspersed with milder periods . The forecast charts we have now are remarkable -especially when added to the cold spell we have just had. I am personally enjoying them and the speculation we can have about what weather they might bring were they to verify (or come close to this). I agree with you that it rather depressing reading the post moaning about lack of snow/cold etc and try to ignore these posts as much as I can.

Based on the current model output I am hopeful that we will have some interesting times over the next few weeks and we will have memorable weather to recall in future years when we are going through the next fallow period.

Edited December 30, 2009 by swilliam

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

GFS has MATCHED the ECM 12z overnight almost blow for blow- bitter bitter weather geting colder & colder- For those who turned their noses up at some of the max temp estimates I put up- here is the FIRST high res at 180 if we were to get the slack flow-

Overnight was -17c, with daytime max in the North west around -9c & -2 towards the south- do that over a couple of days & theres your -10c max in the NW & -5c Max in London....

STELLA STELLA GFS & UKMO 00z runs- even GME coming on board-

THis pattern is setting up- North Easterly, becoming Easterly- then slack Northerly- back to Easterly as the trough undercuts at 144, then North Easterly followed by Easterly-- Snow possible from any direction- thicknesses around 512-520

S

[danm]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

GFS has MATCHED the ECM 12z overnight almost blow for blow- bitter bitter weather geting colder & colder- For those who turned their noses up at some of the max temp estimates I put up- here is the FIRST high res at 180 if we were to get the slack flow-

Overnight was -17c, with daytime max in the North west around -9c & -2 towards the south- do that over a couple of days & theres your -10c max in the NW & -5c Max in London....

STELLA STELLA GFS & UKMO 00z runs- even GME coming on board-

THis pattern is setting up- North Easterly, becoming Easterly- then slack Northerly- back to Easterly as the trough undercuts at 144, then North Easterly followed by Easterly-- Snow possible from any direction- thicknesses around 512-520

S

Looks like this could be an epic cold spell. I hope the charts beyond saturday verify. Looking at the model agreement that is shaping up, it looks increasingly likely that they will verify to something at least near to what is being shown.

[SMU]

Looks like this could be an epic cold spell. I hope the charts beyond saturday verify. Looking at the model agreement that is shaping up, it looks increasingly likely that they will verify to something at least near to what is being shown.

Well I just checked the Ensemble MEAN at 228 on the GFS & it still at -8c so that means nearly 10 days on the enembles with the clustering around 9 degrees below the ave- we are going to see a think white line all the way to the END !!!!!

Cant wait for them to come out-

S

[Gerry]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

GFS has MATCHED the ECM 12z overnight almost blow for blow- bitter bitter weather geting colder & colder- For those who turned their noses up at some of the max temp estimates I put up- here is the FIRST high res at 180 if we were to get the slack flow-

Overnight was -17c, with daytime max in the North west around -9c & -2 towards the south- do that over a couple of days & theres your -10c max in the NW & -5c Max in London....

STELLA STELLA GFS & UKMO 00z runs- even GME coming on board-

THis pattern is setting up- North Easterly, becoming Easterly- then slack Northerly- back to Easterly as the trough undercuts at 144, then North Easterly followed by Easterly-- Snow possible from any direction- thicknesses around 512-520

S

Morning Steve

must say its been a joy to follow your posts whilst seeing through my self imposed excile from netweather, these synoptics really are boy in a sweet shop scenarios of old. just to add weight to the night time minima Steve quoted last night attached are the ecm and gfs 2 metre temps for 12z on the 8th jan they really do portray bone chilling cold the ecm raw output gives dew points of -8 for the central swathe of the mainland from Glasgow to London at 12z on the 8th.

As a veteran of the 70's and 80's winters if this output verified some on this forum may well be cursing that their dreams have come true, as someone who works within the highway infrastructure management in Kent the coming weeks are going to be a real test for current operational policy

[JoeShmoe]

Warning: I guaranteee everyone this am that you will NEVER have seen a set of models colder for the BI then today in the internet age out to 216/240

:lol:

[Iceberg]

& Iceberg- This thread is for the model discussion, I am discussing what the ECM is showing- I know its probably an wrong / outlier- same as if my Nan was a bloke she would be my grandad-

However I stand by that post- the MAX / Mins would be very similar to what I projected given THAT set up-

Steve

Sorry Steve I understand that, just trying to add a little realism so that people don't expect those kind of temps and when they don't show on the next run we don't get a lot of silly posts talking about downgrades....

For the record the actual predictions for London from that ECM were nightime -6 and daytime -3, so a pretty good guess !.

Also of interest is that none of the 50 members (including the ops) brought any precip into London between the 1st and the 7th, which is not good for anyone wanting snow, but is pretty unbelievable.

Back to the models this morning very very good ensemble agreement for the cold spell to last as long as the eye can see, ECM 12Z and GFS 00Z out to the 10-12th of January.

With winds nearly always from the North to East.

Most of the runs are though still very dry due to the slack nature of the flows, we can hope for some embedded short waves though past 96Z which won't be showing up yet.

The models are still hinting at some precip in the south come Mon/Tues next week, but have backtracked a little from any appreciable new years eve/day snow.

All in All better model agreement for longer cold than yesterdays 12Z's which is more than acceptable.

[leroys35]

ecm this morning deep freeze to hit uk many places will be cut off

gem is poor this morning though

[Frosty.]

If you thought the ECM 12z was good last night.......the 00z has just raised the bar another 3 notches :lol: probably..no..definately the most severe wintry ecm run I have had the pleasure of looking at, deep freeze with more snow than we could dream of, the other great news is that the gfs has finally been dragged kicking, screaming and dragging it's heels towards the ecm and is a stunning run throughout, equally good is the ukmo 00z with everything synoptically as perfect as it could be. The winds look like blowing in from an Arctic Northerly and Polar Continental. The GEM 00z drops the ball towards the end of it's run but it would remain very cold under anticyclonic conditions.

[SLEETY]

Does anyone else not bother looking at gfs anymore.Its output has been so inconsistent and out of sync with the rest of models recently their is no point bothering with it anymore.

Whatever credibility it had as a top weather model it is well and truly finished,its credibility has fallen through the floor so far it can never recover ever.

If i were the programmers i would ditch it and keep low for a fair while

Anyway back on track,stunning this morning,the coldest spell of weather for what seems like a lifetime is nearing 100% probability,still not quite their,but nearer than we have ever been to an historic period of weather.Keep those fingers crossed

[Iceberg]

Just to remind peeps we have maximum day time figures of -2, -3 last winter, it's unusual but not that unusual.

I've always had my doubts about the new GFS, but saying that the new ECM when it came in a few years ago(for it's resolution increase), had 6 months or so when it needed the little bugs ironing out.

ECM is a much better ECM than the 12Z, cold comes a far second to snow IMO and the 12Z was cold but not precip led, the 00Z is not as cold (need to wait to see what the real temps are), but has more precip.

[tinybill]

morning guys i just looked at the gfs over night i just cant believe what I'm looking at if those charts come off we are talking weather 30 years ago when the east got storms from the east the east was snowed in for 2 weeks and we got over 2 foot of the stuff with drifts of 20 foot and in those day i was about 20 years of age,

as from now i will be studying the updats with eager as its going to get very soon with big problems

[Solar Cycles]

Well it now seems we have all the models singing from the same hymn sheet. As I stated yesterday evening, as it stands this looks like being a very cold, but dry spell for most.

[cooling climate]

Just to remind peeps we have maximum day time figures of -2, -3 last winter, it's unusual but not that unusual.

I've always had my doubts about the new GFS, but saying that the new ECM when it came in a few years ago(for it's resolution increase), had 6 months or so when it needed the little bugs ironing out.

ECM is a much better ECM than the 12Z, cold comes a far second to snow IMO and the 12Z was cold but not precip led, the 00Z is not as cold (need to wait to see what the real temps are), but has more precip.

Some areas may have seen the odd day last winter with these sort of temperatures but we have not seen

country wide maximum this low for years and years, plus we did not have anything like the synoptics that are on

display at the moment anytime I can recall in the last 10 years,apart from early feb last year for one or two days

and maybe 2005.

The -AO says it all really a SD of -6 absolutely incredible and to think past winters if it dipped briefly to -1SD we

would be chuffed as Larry.

[Weather-history]

Joe B astardi was scoffed at and even called a "crank" over his European winter forecast. He looks less of a "crank" when you see this

Manchester 2m temp ensembles are very cold, they don't even get above 5C until after the 11th January and even then they are only handful that does.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

[West is Best]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

GFS has MATCHED the ECM 12z overnight almost blow for blow- bitter bitter weather geting colder & colder- For those who turned their noses up at some of the max temp estimates I put up- here is the FIRST high res at 180 if we were to get the slack flow-

Overnight was -17c, with daytime max in the North west around -9c & -2 towards the south- do that over a couple of days & theres your -10c max in the NW & -5c Max in London....

STELLA STELLA GFS & UKMO 00z runs- even GME coming on board-

THis pattern is setting up- North Easterly, becoming Easterly- then slack Northerly- back to Easterly as the trough undercuts at 144, then North Easterly followed by Easterly-- Snow possible from any direction- thicknesses around 512-520

S

Agree Steve. Outstanding overnight runs.The GFS ensembles are pretty astonishing frankly (as Mr Data mentions).

[The Weather Dragon]

Hi can somebody explain to me why the GFS min/max temp predictions on the model outputs are never accurate for my area (SW Wales) - they alway seem to be around 2C higher than the actual recorded temperature?

Edited December 30, 2009 by Jonathan Evans

[TEITS]

Wow some fantastic model runs yet again and the pattern is becoming even clearer.

Here is my view on the models for the period from today until Wed 6th Jan.

The general trend from today until Friday is the front currently over N England to move S. This can be seen on the link below. As this front moves S colder air will be tucking in between so the risk of the rain turning to sleet/wet snow is possible. However how active this front will be is difficult to say. Also for parts of E Scotland/NE England snow showers could develop during this period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Onto the weekend and I must admit to being confused. The Met O updated forecast says snow showers will become heavier across E parts although at the moment I can't understand this. Personally I would say the risk of snow is for Scotland/NE England. Other areas will see a mainly dry weekend with very cold temps and frosts at night.

Now moving onto the very exciting part. Into next week and we see the block over Greenland remain in situ. However during this period we shall see LP moving S through Scandi with another LP tracking S over the UK. This is very nicely shown on the ECM/GFS/GEM Ensemble mean/GEFS mean.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-156.png?0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-21-1-168.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Now its difficult to go into detail. However broadly speaking the trend shows even colder NE,lys moving into the UK which would bring widespread heavy snow showers especially across E areas but not exclusively. The max temps would struggle to rise above freezing with min temps especially low with clear skies. Make no mistake if the +168 charts verify it would be the coldest, snowiest spell of weather we have seen so far this winter!

[Theresnoway]

Well it now seems we have all the models singing from the same hymn sheet. As I stated yesterday evening, as it stands this looks like being a very cold, but dry spell for most.

Hi Solar,

I think the most important thing at the moment is establishing the cold / severe cold air source, precipitation in these situations can not be forecast acuratly until 24-36 hours out. Although the models do not currently prog much precipitation, I guarantee that some areas will see significant precipitation during this cold spell. As some one has already mentioned, any precipitation that does fall is likely to do so as snow.

The longer the cold spell the more probability of snow fall.

I am being carefull not do get dragged along with all the hype, but in terms of what I have seen from the model outputs, this really is unprecedented. More importantly, people who have been watching the models for a lot longer than me also agree.

Looking forward to the next couple of weeks.

Dave

[dallas]

Have just looked through the 0z run, and using the N/W forecast IMBY have counted 13 days where it does not get above 0c, never seen that before on here

[charlton north-downs]

Nice rant but I am afraid some people are never satisfied and, worse, seem to think that every winter in the 60s, 70s and 80s, had endless cold periods and massive snowstorms. My teenage years were from 1970 to 1977 when we had a succession of snowless winters (like recently) but despite this I became really interested in weather. When we did get some cold winters 78/89, 81/82 Jan 85 (although I was in Scotland that year and this was quite an unmemorable event), Feb 86, Jan 87 and Feb 91 these were characterised by either single very cold events (87, 91), some longish events (eg few weeks but only 1 or 2 snowstorms 81/82, Feb 86,) or cold periods (say 1 week) interspersed with milder periods . The forecast charts we have now are remarkable -especially when added to the cold spell we have just had. I am personally enjoying them and the speculation we can have about what weather they might bring were they to verify (or come close to this). I agree with you that it rather depressing reading the post moaning about lack of snow/cold etc and try to ignore these posts as much as I can.

Based on the current model output I am hopeful that we will have some interesting times over the next few weeks and we will have memorable weather to recall in future years when we are going through the next fallow period.

We may have to wait for snow but the very cold temps are coming.

People seem to forget we in the South had seven year of snow less winters in the seventies(1970 had a fantastic White Christmas then I cant remember any snow until New Years Eve 1978 with a max of -2c and heavy drifting snow overnight then the next day a max of -5c in Central London the countryside temps were much lower. Winters in the sixties/seventies and eighties were not constantly cold and a few were very mild. The period coming up is surely (please not the kiss of death) going to be the coldest since February 1991. Steve Muir prediction of very low temps are not unrealistic. Enjoy and drive carefully. In the sixties we just put on a another layer of clothing as we scraped the ice off,from inside the windows.